New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race and with how the practices and qualifying have shaken out thus far, we could be in for a wild ride on Sunday. First we had Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman wreck in first practice, so they’ll have to start in the rear. Then Alex Bowman blew an engine during qualifying, so he actually qualified in the rear, and then will also have to go to the rear again because he wrecked his car in Happy Hour, too. And let’s not forget William Byron and Kyle Larson, who both destroyed their primary cars in practice and had to go to backup cars. The cherry on top? Matt DiBenedetto cutting down a tire in two separate occasions during final practice, which hopefully isn’t a Goodyear problem because that could cause Sunday’s race to just get stupid.
Here are some helpful links to the qualifying results and practice speeds from this weekend:
DraftKings Strategy Tactics for New Hampshire
I think we’re looking at a one dominator race here on Sunday, so your lineups need to reflect that. Personally, I think Kyle Busch ($11,900) has the field covered and as long as he is able to get around pole sitter Brad Keselowski ($10,700) early, I think Rowdy can easily lead 200+ laps on Sunday. The other driver that has been a stand-out at New Hampshire is Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,500), and he has a really fast race car as well for this weekend’s race. The plus side for Truex is that he comes at a little discount off of Kyle Busch and he starts back in 6th, which allows him a little room for place differential points as well. Of course, starting in 6th means it’ll take longer for the #19 Toyota to get to the front, and even then, Truex is going to have to get past the fastest car in the field. So when building your lineups I’d start with Kyle or Truex and go from there with finishers and place differential potential.
Of course, it’s not a bad idea to reserve 10% or so with Keselowski as your dominator, just in case we have another race like Martinsville where it’s impossible to pass the leader even though he doesn’t have the best car. Ironically, it was Keselowski that was in that position at Martinsville, too. And don’t forget about Kevin Harvick ($11,100) sitting there as well. It’s going to be almost impossible to stuff two of the drivers over $11,000 in one lineup, but if someone like Ryan Blaney ($8,600) or Erik Jones ($9,000) grabs the lead early, that gives a guy like Harvick time to move up all the while a high-owned hog like Kyle Busch or Truex aren’t getting those dominator points. Blaney and Jones both have very fast race cars this weekend but, like I said, I think something is going to have to happen to Kyle Busch’s car for anyone else to grab a significant number of dominator points on Sunday. I’ll definitely have a decent portion of Harvick-Blaney and Harvick-Jones stacks, though.
GPP Drivers I Love for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – Coming off of a 6th-place finish (with 40 laps led!) at Kentucky, Clint Bowyer is looking to gain some momentum and solidify his spot in the Playoffs, so a great run–and possibly even a win–here at New Hampshire would be awesome. But is it possible? Bowyer starts back in 16th for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, but I think he should be able to easily gain 8-10 spots before the checkered flag waves. He’s finished 7th in two of his three starts here at Stewart-Haas Racing, and looking at the similar tracks this year (Phoenix and Richmond), Clint ended up 12th and 9th in those two events. He also posted 16 and 21 fastest laps in those two races, respectively. Speed-wise, I have Bowyer with the 4th-best overall average between the two practice sessions on Saturday, although he did only run 56 laps. He ended up 8th on the ten-lap average chart, too, and we all know how good those Stewart-Haas cars have been at this track over the last few years.
Ryan Newman ($7,600) – Here’s the thing about Ryan Newman: he always practices slower than he races. So typically a good gauge of whether or not that #6 Ford will have speed on Sunday is if his teammate, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,200), is fast. And after the #17 Ford qualified 11th and went through the two practice session on Saturday with the 9th-best overall average speed, I’d say these Roush Fords are coming to play on Sunday. So while Newman may seem like an obvious choice for some, I think he has the potential to be overlooked with many people reaching up for Alex Bowman ($8,800), who starts last. But even so, I like Newman over Bowman. This #6 team has four top 10 finishes in the last five Cup Series races overall, and we all know what “The Rocketman” can do on a short track with limited space. He also finished 12th at Phoenix and 9th at Richmond, which are the most similar tracks to Loudon. He might end up being a chalk play on Sunday–remember, I’m awful at guessing ownership percentages–but I’ll have plenty of Newman in DraftKings this week.
GPP Fade Options for Loudon
Alex Bowman ($8,800) – From a strategy perspective, I don’t mind being underweight on Alex Bowman. Yes, he starts dead last and is going to rack up those place differential points like crazy, but look at the guys close to him in price this week. We already talked about Clint Bowyer ($8,400), but Ryan Blaney ($8,600) is sitting there with a great shorter track resume and a super fast car this weekend. So let’s look at it like this. Let’s say Bowman has some issues during the race and ends up finishing 20th. That’s a pretty good race for place differential and would equal 41 DraftKings points. But at the same time, a 5th-place finish out of Blaney would equal 39 DraftKings points, and all of that is without any dominator points–which Blaney would be much more likely to get. The same situation can be said for Erik Jones ($9,000). The thing I don’t like about Bowman this week is his price, as I think it really restricts what you can do with the rest of your lineup. If you want that place differential, going with a guy like Ryan Newman ($7,600) is not only the cheaper route, but I’d say is just as likely to have a great points day, as the Hendrick Chevrolets have just been off as a whole this weekend.
As far as my full fades? Matt DiBenedetto ($6,600) and David Ragan ($5,600).
New Hampshire Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 DraftKings Projections
You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
|Driver||Starting Position||DraftKings Salary||Avg Proj FPTS||Avg. Projected Finish||Proj Laps Led||Dollar Per FPT|
|Martin Truex Jr||6||$11,500||57.7||02.6||49||$199|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||11||$7,200||27.4||13.8||0||$263|