2016 NASCAR Chase Predictions: Round of 16

Well, the field is set after a crazy regular season finale in Richmond. As many people predicted, however, there was no first-time winner last Saturday night, so we now head to Chicagoland Speedway for the start of NASCAR’s playoffs with the same 16 drivers that were “in” before that race. Each win during the regular season gives that driver 3 bonus points to start out this first round, therefore a few teams have a pretty nice advantage to start this year’s Chase.

The 2016 Sprint Cup Round of 16

This is the first round of NASCAR’s playoffs, and we start with all sixteen Chase drivers before cutting it down to twelve after the races at Chicagoland, Loudon, and Dover. The sixteen drivers that will be fighting for this year’s Sprint Cup championship are: Kyle Busch (+12 points), Brad Keselowski (+12 points), Denny Hamlin (+9 points), Carl Edwards (+6 points), Kevin Harvick (+6 points), Jimmie Johnson (+6 points), Matt Kenseth (+6 points), Martin Truex, Jr. (+6 points), Chris Buescher (+3 points), Kurt Busch (+3 points), Kyle Larson (+3 points), Joey Logano (+3 points), Tony Stewart (+3 points), Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott, and Jamie McMurray.

Chicagoland Preview

Favorites to win: Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick

The opening race at Chicagoland is actually one of the more difficult events to handicap, believe it or not. The sixteen Chase teams are now focused on one thing and one thing only:finishing as high as possible, week in and week out. While some teams may have been testing in the weeks leading up to the Chase, that is now reserved for those who have no chance at winning this year’s championship. Additionally, Chase teams will be bringing their best cars to the track pretty much every week, and that’s why we should see all sixteen inside the top 20 on race days, unless of course there are wrecks or something of that nature.

Brad Keselowski is currently on a five-race streak of top 10 finishes at Chicagoland and has more momentum over the last month and a half than anyone not named Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick. He won here back in 2014 and has to be one of the favorites heading into the weekend. One driver to keep an eye on this race is Jimmie Johnson. Will that #48 team figure out how to fix the issues they’ve been having? Have they really just been testing all this time? Johnson has a career average finish of 9.9 at Chicagoland, and for a more in-depth preview of this race you can check out our Yahoo! rankings and picks for Chicagoland.

Loudon (New Hampshire) Preview

Favorites to win: Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano

If any of the drivers that got into the Chase on points want to make it on to the Round of 12, they’re going to need a strong showing at Loudon later this month. Jamie McMurray came home with a solid 6th-place finish when we ran there back in July, while Austin Dillon ended up 13th and Chase Elliott finished 34th–although, to be fair, he did qualify 7th and was running decent until he had a tire go down.

As far as the favorites go, Matt Kenseth has to be the first driver to come to mind for this race. He has won three of the last six Loudon races including this race one year ago as well as the one we ran here back in April. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Kenseth has been a legitimate top 5 threat every single time that we have stopped at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and that will be the case this time as well.

If Kenseth doesn’t win for a third time in a row at Loudon, you should still expect a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in victory lane. Both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch both have two wins at “The Monster Mile.” However, you can’t count out the Penske Fords here, either. Brad Keselowski actually has the best average driver rating over the last five races at Dover, and Joey Logano has finished 4th or better in each of the last four.

Dover Preview

Drivers likely to win: Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson

In all honesty, this could be a must-win race for Jimmie Johnson. Chicagoland is a relatively safe race for the six-time champion, but the #48 team has been a step behind at Loudon as of late, and let’s not forget that Johnson has pretty much no momentum heading into this year’s Chase. So if trouble would be able to find Johnson in the first two legs of the Round of 16–which, really, wouldn’t be that surprising–he could very well be on the outside looking in when we get to Dover in October. Thankfully for him, though, Dover is one of his best tracks. Johnson has been to victory lane ten times so far at Dover and that includes three of the last six races. Still, the #48 Chevrolet has finished 25th and 41st in the last two races there, so it’s nowhere near a guarantee.

When you look at the last few races at “The Monster Mile,” however, the clear-and-above best car has been the #4 Chevrolet of Kevin Harvick. He won the fall race here last season (in dominating fashion) and had the best car there back in May but ended up finishing 15th after some miscues on pit road, among other issues. If his “new” pit crew is really as good as it looked at Richmond, though, Harvick could easily dominate the third race in the Round of 16 this season.

Matt Kenseth went to victory lane here at Dover back in May, edging out the charging Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott in the final laps. Once again you have to keep an eye out for Larson in this race because in his five career starts at Dover he’s never finished worse than 11th. The solid 3rd-place finish for Chase Elliott back in May was his first career Sprint Cup start at “The Monster Mile,” and if he can replicate that effort when we go back there in October, it could be his saving grace to move on to the Round of 12. Dover isn’t really a place you want to need a good run at, though.

The First Four Eliminated

Every fun ride needs to come to an end, and while it was definitely a storyline that many in the NASCAR world liked to follow week-by-week, Chris Buescher isn’t going to suddenly turn into a legitimate top 10 threat now that the playoffs have started. Chances are top 20s aren’t going to get you to the Round of 12, unless of course two or more other Chasers have a couple of very bad races and don’t win the other event. Buescher would need to steal another win to make it past the opening round, and unfortunately for him, lightning rarely strikes twice in the NASCAR world. But that’s not very much of a surprise, although the next pick might be.

Tony Stewart had a great two months of racing from the middle of June to the middle of August, but he has came crashing back to Earth–and in a big way. Suddenly Smoke looks like the 2015 version of himself, if not worse. And if we’re looking at the tracks that make up the first round of NASCAR’s Chase, they’re not exactly Stewart’s best.

Tony is a three-time winner at Chicagoland but has finished 25th and 18th in the last two races there. He had a good run at Michigan this year as well as at Kentucky (a fuel mileage race), but other than that the #14 Chevrolet has been mediocre at best on the intermediate race tracks in 2016.

At Loudon, Stewart has found himself gambling on fuel quite often, but it hasn’t really worked out, as five of the last eight races there have ended with him outside of the top 10. And finally there’s Dover, where Smoke has just two finishes better than 14th in his last eleven attempts. We all want to see Stewart make it to the Championship race in Homestead in his final season, but he’s going to have a tough time getting out of the first round–and I don’t think he’ll do it.

I’m going to stick on the Stewart-Haas Racing Shame Train and go with Kurt Busch as the next driver to take an early exit from this year’s Chase. Yep, the same guy that opened the 2016 season as one of the most consistent finishers has suddenly found a rough patch. The #41 Chevrolet did have more speed in it last week at Richmond than we’ve seen in a while, but that’s just one race. Also, the first three races of the Chase aren’t really that good of tracks for Kurt Busch.

He has finished 8th or better in four of the last five Chicagoland races, but one good race probably isn’t going to get you into the Round of 12. At Loudon, Kurt is a three-time winner, but you can’t look past the fact that he hasn’t had a single-digit finish there since 2010–thirteen races ago. There is hope, as the #41 Chevrolet has been quick at New Hampshire lately, but it’s apparent that Kurt still doesn’t have the whole “get the finish” thing down pat quite yet.

At Dover, it’s much of the same, as Busch has just one top 10 finish in his last nine starts at “The Monster Mile.” The good news? That finish came at the race there back in May. The bad news? Kurt could very well be in a “must win” situation at Dover, and he has just seven top 5s in thirty-two career starts there. Also, one more thing to think about regarding the Stewart-Haas cars: don’t forget that they’re moving to Ford next year. Don’t be surprised if they start losing some of the support from Chevrolet (not publicly of course) as the year winds down.

The last driver I predict to be eliminated in the first round of this year’s Chase came down to Austin Dillon or Jamie McMurray, but I just can’t go against Chip Ganassi Racing right now. The #42 and #1 Chevrolets are running very well right now, and it seems as though that organization has definitely hit on something. Austin Dillon and Richard Childress Racing, on the other hand, are consistent with their finishes, but have pretty much lacked truly competitive speed for much of the year. He could slip through into the Round of 12 if a couple of other Chasers wreck in two of the races, but that’d be more luck than anything.

On a positive note, Austin Dillon does have four finishes inside the top 15 in five career starts at Loudon, but Dover has been a track that he has really struggled at since joining the Sprint Cup Series. In six career starts there, his average finish is 26.7 with a best result of 20th. Performances like that aren’t going to get you into the next round.

The Loudon and Dover races will be key in this round and will really separate the men from the boys.

Who do you have moving on to the Round of 12? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.