Approaching Sonoma From a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective

In the Fantasy NASCAR world, you hear a lot about Daytona and Talladega and how they are unpredictable. For the most part, my strategy with those two race tracks is simple: pick whoever your gut says and roll with it. Unlike other race weekends, I rarely even look at the practice speeds or qualifying results when it comes to those big super-speedways.

However, you could make an argument that the road course races at Sonoma and Watkins Glen are in the same boat as Daytona and Talladega. Being fast on the speed charts at Sonoma doesn’t necessarily mean you have a good race car. Drivers would prefer to be comfortable here and good on a long run as opposed to being able to lay down one fast lap.

So how do we approach this Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective? Do we pick the fastest cars from practice, the ones that start up front, or the drivers that have the best record at this track? What about a combination of the three? The thing is, there is no simple answer here. However, there are quite a few other factors to consider when making your fantasy rosters for Sonoma.

Outside Fantasy NASCAR Factors at Sonoma

1. Strategy – As soon as the green flag waves on Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, the crew chiefs on the pit boxes are going to start playing the strategy game and calculating out the fuel mileage. It’s just how these races play out. We don’t see many cautions at Sonoma, so often times the drivers that finish up front are the ones that were in the right place at the right time when a wreck happens. Track position is also quite important at this track, as there are only a limited number of passing opportunities on this 2.52-mile road course.
2. Comfort Over Speed – Being able to run a fast lap might help a driver in qualifying and starting up front, but it’s not going to help him or her during the race. Just like at Pocono, where the teams focus on making the car drive as well as possible through all three corners, the teams at Sonoma are trying to make the cars at Sonoma perform well in as many turns as possible on this 12-turn twisting track. My point here? Practice speeds can be misleading at a track like Sonoma, so don’t put too much emphasis on them when making your Fantasy NASCAR roster.
3. The Surprise Factor – Kyle Busch won this race last season, which was quite a surprise considering he hasn’t posted a result better than 11th in the six races ran here at Sonoma before that event. Martin Truex, Jr. won here in 2013, and in his seven career starts prior to that victory, he had only one result better than 15th. In 2009, Kasey Kahne went to victory lane here at Sonoma despite the fact that his previous career-best at this track was 23rd. This further proves the importance of timing and strategy when it comes to these races, and we could very well see a first-time winner here on Sunday. My pick? Kyle Larson.

Very few drivers are consistently good at the road courses. Here at Sonoma, only three current Sprint Cup drivers have a top 10 finishing percentage above 50% in their career at this track. So when it comes to your Fantasy NASCAR rosters on Sunday, don’t be afraid to take some “outside of the box” picks, similar to what we do at places like Daytona and Talladega. Personally, I’m not going to waste an exorbitant amount of time making my rosters, I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on Sunday afternoon–probably with a few curse words thrown in there as well. This is a relatively short race we have coming up, which means if any of your fantasy drivers have problems during the race, it’s going to be difficult to bounce back.