The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway marks the end of Round 2 of this year’s playoffs, and it’s actually setting up to be an interesting race. Currently, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are on the outside looking in as far as making it to Round 3, while Jimmie Johnson is right on the cut line. Martin Truex, Jr. and Brad Keselowski are the only two drivers that are safe for sure, while it would take something catastrophic for Kyle Larson to miss the cut.
I will post my official Yahoo! roster for Kansas 2 on Twitter on Thursday evening before lockdown on Friday morning. Please follow me there: @FanRacingOnline
PLEASE NOTE: This weekend’s schedule is pretty normal. There’s a practice session and qualifying happening on Friday followed by two more practice sessions on Saturday. Be sure to check back to this post on Saturday evening for my final notes and my official starters for Sunday afternoon’s race at Kansas Speedway.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Kansas 2
Martin Truex, Jr. (3 starts remaining) – It’s a 1.5-mile track this weekend so that means Martin Truex, Jr. needs to be on your radar. Yeah, he’s already locked into the next round of the playoffs thanks to his win at Charlotte a couple weeks ago–another 1.5-mile venue–but that doesn’t mean that this #78 team is going to take their foot off the gas by any means. As far as Kansas goes, Truex is the most recent race winner here and has led 95 or more laps in three of the last five races here. The weird thing, though, is that he’s led zero laps combined in the last seven fall races here. With that being said, Truex had a similar statistic at Charlotte and we all know how that played out. The #78 Toyota will be a contender this weekend, and there’s no reason to go against it. Truex has a ridiculous average finish of 3rd on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and has won five of the eight events.
Kyle Busch (1 start remaining) – Kansas used to be a terrible track for Kyle Busch. In fact, terrible might be putting it nicely; over his first 14 starts at this track, Rowdy has just one finish better than 10th and zero top 5s. The good news for Kyle Busch fans is that that is the past, and a lot has changed since then. Busch “broke through” with a 4th-place finish in this race three years ago and hasn’t looked back at Kansas. Currently, he’s on a five-race streak of top 5 finishes at this track, and that even includes a win here last season. Heading into Sunday, Rowdy is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, and he needs a good run to keep his championship hopes alive. I wouldn’t bet against him.
Kevin Harvick is your next best A Group option after those two Toyotas. The #4 Ford is finding that last bit of speed at the exact right time, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Kevin Harvick was a legitimate championship contender before this season is over with. Here at Kansas, “Happy” is a two-time winner and actually the defending champion of this exact race. He’s also finished inside the top 3 in six of his last eight starts here, and owns an average finish of 9.6 on the 1.5-mile tracks this season. There’s no reason to think that Harvick won’t be a top 5 contender (at least) here on Sunday.
Matt Kenseth needs a really good run here on Sunday (and probably a little luck) if he wants to make it to the next round of the playoffs, and that’s definitely within reach for this #20 team. Like Harvick, Kenseth is a two-time Kansas winner and he also hasn’t finished worse than 14th here since the 2009 season. His teammate, Denny Hamlin, just needs to run his normal race on Sunday, and he should be through to the next round. The bad news is that three of the last five Kansas races have ended with Hamlin outside of the top 20, and he has just two top 10s in his last nine starts here. The good news is the #11 Toyota has the 10th-best average finish (13.6) on the 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Jimmie Johnson is a three-time Kansas winner and owns a series-best average finish of 9.6 at this race track. And when you couple that with the fact that this #48 team has pretty much ‘flipped their switch’ since the playoffs started, it honestly wouldn’t be surprising at all if Johnson ended up in victory lane on Sunday. Considering he’s currently in 8th, though, it’s hard to imagine Jimmie taking any unnecessary risks on Sunday. He’s posted a single-digit finish in 14 of the last 17 Kansas races, and that should be 15 of the last 18 after this weekend. Keep an eye on Johnson’s ownership percentage before lockdown, though: he could be a great off-sequence pick for Kansas 2.
One of the two playoff contenders that can rest easy this weekend is Brad Keselowski, which is a good thing because Kansas isn’t the best track for BK. He does have one trip to victory lane here (back in 2011) but his total of three top 5s in fifteen career starts leaves much to be desired. Overall, though, Keselowski’s average finish of 13.1 at Kansas is pretty good, and he wound up finishing 2nd here back in May.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Matt Kenseth, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Post-Practice A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Matt Kenseth, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Brad Keselowski, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Final Notes: Honestly, the only real viable options for starters in Yahoo! this weekend are Truex, Harvick, and Kyle Busch. If you don’t have one of those three on your roster, well… Anyway, Truex is one the pole and will definitely be one of the cars to beat. He should also lead the most laps. With that being said, Harvick showed a whole bunch of speed during the practice sessions on Saturday, and if he’s able to get in front of the #78 Toyota early, the #4 Ford could end up leading the most laps. Kyle Busch starts a little further back (7th) but should be at least a top 5 contender on Sunday. With that being said, I don’t see where the #18 Toyota has the speed to win it on Sunday. For what it’s worth, if I had to choose between Truex and Harvick, I’d probably go with the latter just to be different.
My Starter: Martin Truex, Jr. over Kyle Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Kansas 2
Chase Elliott (2 starts remaining) – Everyone has been talking about Jimmie Johnson when it comes to ‘flipping the switch’ when the playoffs start, but what about his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Chase Elliott? This #24 Chevrolet has been in legitimate contention to win in four of the last five races, and Chase has been able to post 2nd-place finishes in three of those–including the races at Chicagoland and Charlotte, which are both 1.5-mile tracks. Here at Kansas, Elliott doesn’t have the best record–his average finish is 23rd over three total starts–but he did finish 9th in his first start here, and with the way this team is running right now, he should be looking at another top 10, if not another top 5. Chase has an average finish of 11.4 on 1.5-mile tracks this year, which is 6th-best in the series.
Kyle Larson (1 starts remaining) – As mentioned in previous weeks, my final Kyle Larson start is tentatively reserved for Homestead. With that being said, there’s a very good chance that the #42 Chevrolet could go out and dominate a race before then, and if that is possible, I’ll be using it then. So, in other words, I’m putting Larson on my Yahoo! roster as a “just in case” driver, and for the possibility of qualifying bonus points. Larson’s record here at Kansas isn’t great–his career average finish is 18.4–but he wound up finishing 6th here back in May and does have a 2nd-place finish on his resume here (in this race three years ago). Additionally, Larson has been one of the best drivers on 1.5-mile tracks this season, as he has an average finish of 7.8 on them, which is 2nd-best in the series. The only possible concern I could have with him this weekend is the fact that he’s 29 points above the cut line heading into Sunday, so the #42 team could very well deploy a conservative strategy in the Hollywood Casino 400.
Kasey Kahne (8 starts remaining) – Again, it’s not a bad idea to roll with the hot hand. This #5 team is much improved now that the playoffs have started and they have Darian Grubb atop the pit box, and when you consider the fact that Kansas has been one of Kasey Kahne’s best tracks over the last couple of years, the #5 Chevrolet could really surprise people this weekend. Kasey has finished 10th and 4th in the last two fall Kansas races and ran 15th here back in May of this year, which is pretty good when you consider how bad this team was running during that time. Kahne is my start save pick for Sunday, just in case my B Group studs don’t pan out.
Ryan Blaney (2 starts remaining) – The last time we were here at Kansas Speedway, Ryan Blaney had a legitimate shot to win the race. After winning the pole, Blaney went out and led 83 of the 267 laps en route to a 4th-place finish–which gives him three results of 7th or better in the last four races at this track. His other finish during that four-race span was 14th, which came in this race one year ago. Heading into Sunday, Blaney is in on points when it comes to the next round of the playoffs, and he’s probably going to need at least a top 7 finish to make it. It’s not guaranteed, but I definitely see it happening. The #21 Ford has an average finish of 11.4 on 1.5-mile tracks this year and an average driver rating of 96.1, which are 7th- and 6th-best in the series, respectively.
I have only one start left with Jamie McMurray and that is the reason why he’s probably not going to be on my roster for Kansas 2. Now, don’t get me wrong, I still think the #1 Chevrolet will compete for a top 10 finish on Sunday, but, historically, Texas has been a better track for Jamie Mac, and we’ll be racing there in a couple weeks. McMurray finished 8th in the first race here at Kansas this season but that’s his only top 10 result here in his last eight starts. One thing to remember with Jamie this weekend is that he’s so far behind in the playoff standings that he might need a win to get to the next round. Gambles by teams can either be really good or really bad for fantasy players…
Another driver who will probably need on a win on Sunday to advance to the next round is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. And unlike Jamie McMurray’s #1 Chevrolet, the #17 Ford doesn’t quite have the raw speed to legitimately challenge for the win this weekend, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Stenhouse takes every chance he gets on strategy to play the strategy card. It worked out for this #17 team in the last round, but it’s much less likely to work at a track like Kansas. For what it’s worth, Stenhouse has finished 13th or better in three of his last four starts at this track.
The Stewart-Haas Racing teammates of Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch both have top 10 potential on Sunday. This is Bowyer’s home race track, and he’s actually been pretty good on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, boasting an average finish of 13.5, which is 8th-best in the series. Kurt, on the other hand, has ran really well at the 1.5-mile tracks, too, but doesn’t quite get the finishes he deserves. That explains why his average running position on this track type (11.6) is 7th-best in the series while his average finish (17.9) is 19th-best. Here at Kansas in May, Bowyer finished 9th while Busch came home 19th.
Ryan Newman has top 15 potential this weekend, as he has finished 12th or better in six of the last seven races here at Kansas Speedway. He’s also coming off of that 2nd-place finish at Talladega last weekend, so maybe that will add a little pep in the step of the #31 team. With that being said, Newman’s record on the 1.5-mile tracks this season has been atrocious; in the eight races this year, “The Rocketman” has an average finish of 26.5, which is worse than David Ragan and Landon Cassill, among many others.
Newman’s Richard Childress Racing teammate, Austin Dillon, provides a safer fantasy option this weekend, as he is averaging a finish of 19.8 on the 1.5-mile tracks this season and has wound up finishing 16th or better in four of his last six starts at this track. Even better? Three of those finishes have been top 10s for the older Dillon brother, including 6th- and 8th-place finishes here in the fall (in 2016 and 2014, respectively).
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Kurt Busch, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Kasey Kahne, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Danica Patrick, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Paul Menard, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Chris Buescher
Post-Practice B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Kurt Busch, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Ryan Newman, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Kasey Kahne, (11) Danica Patrick, (12) Chris Buescher, (13) Trevor Bayne, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Paul Menard, (16) A.J. Allmendinger
Final Notes: Qualifying didn’t go very well for the B Group this weekend, as the top qualifier among this group was Jamie McMurray in 8th after Ryan Blaney’s 3rd-place qualifying run was disallowed. The good news for Blaney fans is that the #21 Ford still looks like at least a solid top 10 car. However, it’s going to be hard to come through the field. It’s possible, though. Kyle Larson also looks very strong this weekend, but it’s hard to imagine the #42 Chevrolet dominating and winning this race on Sunday. Because of that, I won’t be using my final Larson start on Sunday. Chase Elliott looks pretty good, but honestly a little slower than expected. I’d be surprised if the #24 Chevrolet wound up inside the top 5 on Sunday. Clint Bowyer is the only other legitimate top 10 threat in this group this weekend.
My Starters: Ryan Blaney and Kasey Kahne over Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson (obviously hoping for the best here)
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Kansas 2
We’re back to a race where it’s best to use the C Group “studs,” but at the same time we have to remember that there are five races left in the 2017 season, and we have to make the math work. Personally, I’m down to one start left between Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones, and then I have three left with Ty Dillon. With as much as the #13 Chevrolet has fallen off on the 1.5-mile tracks, though, I don’t mind using one of my final Suarez or Jones starts here this weekend, and then the other one at either Texas or Homestead. However, it’s best to keep you options open–if you’re in a similar situation as me–just in case the #13 team does bring a competitive car to Kansas this weekend. Looking back at the first Kansas race this year, Suarez wound up finishing 7th while Ty Dillon came home 14th. Erik Jones ended up finishing 22nd that day. Right now I’m leaning toward rostering Suarez and Dillon for this weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400 but only starting Suarez if he can possibly get a top 5 finish or if Dillon just looks terrible.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Daniel Suarez, (2) Erik Jones, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) David Ragan, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
Post-Practice C Group Rankings: (1) Daniel Suarez, (2) Erik Jones, (3) Michael McDowell, (4) Ty Dillon, (5) David Ragan, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
Final Notes: This might be the best car that Daniel Suarez has had all season. The #19 Toyota will roll off the grid from 5th when the Hollywood Casino 400 goes green on Sunday, and honestly it looked to have that kind of race speed during the practice sessions on Saturday as well. And because of that, I’m going to use my final Suarez start this weekend. Erik Jones looks solid as well, but his record on the 1.5-mile tracks this season leaves a lot to be desired. However, if the #77 team is able to run a mistake-free race, and they also don’t run into any mechanical issues, Erik should be able to compete for a solid top 10 on Sunday.
My Starter: Daniel Suarez over Ty Dillon
