The final regular season race of the season is this Saturday night, as the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will finalize the 16 drivers that will compete for the championship over the last ten races this year. Will Erik Jones finally get a win and steal a spot in the playoffs? What about Joey Logano, who had his win here at Richmond back in April encumbered, and now needs a win this weekend to make the playoffs? Or even Clint Bowyer, who has two career wins here at Richmond, and is on the outside looking in heading into Saturday night? Unfortunately, NASCAR likes to hype this race up because of the possibilities with their ‘win and in’ format, but what we’ve seen over the years is that nothing too crazy happens here at Richmond on Saturday night. One can hope, I guess…
I will post my official Yahoo! roster for Richmond 2 on Twitter on Thursday evening before lockdown. Please follow me there: @FanRacingOnline
PLEASE NOTE: NASCAR is running a condensed schedule this weekend, as both practice sessions as well as qualifying will be held on Friday afternoon. Be sure to check back to this post on Friday evening for my final notes and my official starters for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Richmond 2
Denny Hamlin (9 starts remaining) – This #11 team just keeps chugging along, and a lot of people–myself included–are afraid to pull the trigger in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing. That’s why I still have nine Denny Hamlin starts left. Anyway, Hamlin’s impressive victory at Darlington last weekend makes it eight top 5 finishes in the last eleven Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races for him, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. As far as Richmond goes, Hamlin is a three-time winner at this race track and is the defending winner of this race. Need I say more? Hamlin is the all-time lap leader here at Richmond, too, with 1,653 total laps led over the course of 22 career starts. That’s even better than Jeff Gordon’s 1,637 laps led–and he made 47 total starts at this track.
NOTE: Denny Hamlin’s crew chief is suspended for two races after NASCAR issued an L1 penalty to the #11 team due to infractions at Darlington. The team will NOT appeal. From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, though, this shouldn’t affect Hamlin too much on Saturday night at Richmond.
Matt Kenseth (8 starts remaining) – Denny Hamlin is the hottest driver in the Cup Series garage right now, but his teammate, Matt Kenseth is a close second. And while Kenseth still isn’t locked into the playoffs this year, he’s got a very good chance to make it in on points. Still, a win on Saturday night is the only way to guarantee a spot to fight for the championship. If you remember back to the first race at Richmond this year, Kenseth won the pole and led a race-high 164 laps before ultimately finishing 23rd due to a cut tire. Still, the point is that the #20 Toyota was very fast then, and should be very fast this weekend, too. Kenseth dominated the 2015 fall race here at Richmond and that is one of two career wins he has at this race track. Overall, he has finished 7th or better in seven of the last ten races here, and should easily make it right of the last eleven on Saturday night.
Martin Truex, Jr. will probably be the highest-owned driver this weekend, simply because the guy can win literally anywhere. I can’t fault you for putting him on your roster, I just feel like going a different direction this weekend. As far as his record here at Richmond, Truex has just two top 5 finishes in his 20 career starts at this track and an overall average finish of 20th. Don’t let that scare you away, though: the #78 Toyota led the most laps (193) and finished 3rd in this race one year ago.
Kyle Busch is a four-time winner at Richmond International Raceway and will be good for at least a top 5 finish here on Saturday night. His 15 career top 5 finishes here in 24 total starts (62.5%) is almost unbelievable. Kevin Harvick is another great driver here at Richmond, and has posted a top 5 result in five of the last six races at this track. My only concern with Harvick right now is that the #4 Ford hasn’t been capable of legitimately winning a race in quite some time. Still, Harv is a reliable top 5 option this weekend, and definitely viable in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing.
A lot of eyes are going to be on Joey Logano this weekend. There’s no ifs and/or buts about it: he needs a win on Saturday night to get into the playoffs. The bad news is that the #22 Ford has barely even sniffed the top 10 over the last couple of months. The good news is that Logano went to victory lane here at Richmond back in April–Logano’s second win at this track. For what it’s worth, though, his other victory here was also in the spring race, and Joey has just two top 5 results in nine career September starts at this track. As far as his teammate, Brad Keselowski, goes, the #2 Ford keeps fading near the end of races, and I don’t like that. Still, Kez won this race back in 2014 and has just one finish worse than 11th in the last seven Richmond races. He also has four top 5 results during that span.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Denny Hamlin, (4) Kevin Harvick, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Post-Qualifying A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Matt Kenseth, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Kevin Harvick, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Final Notes: One thing you have to know about Martin Truex, Jr. is that when he unloads fast off the truck, the rest of the garage should be worried. So when Truex tied Matt Kenseth for the fastest lap in Practice #1, I knew he had a great car. And when the #78 Toyota had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, I knew Truex is probably going to lead the most laps here on Saturday night (despite starting 5th). Of course, Kenseth still has the possibility to lead the most laps, considering he starts on the pole and led 164 laps here back in April. And because only 10% of Yahoo! players took him this weekend, I’m going to have to make the strategy call and start Kenseth over Truex and hope for the best. As far as the other drivers go, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are right there with Truex and Kenseth and then there’s a noticable gap back to Harvick and the rest of the A Group drivers. Start a Toyota on Saturday night, you won’t regret it.
My Starter: Matt Kenseth over Martin Truex, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Richmond 2
Kurt Busch (3 starts remaining) – Kurt Busch damn near won the Southern 500 at Darlington last weekend and now has three finishes of 6th or better in the last four Cup Series races. Can you say getting hot at the right time? And the best part of everything for this #41 team is that we’re at Richmond International Raceway this weekend, a track where Kurt has won twice before (most recently in 2015) and has been a constant top 10 threat since coming to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. In addition to posting five top 10s in the last seven races here, Busch also almost went to victory lane in this race with Furniture Row Racing back in 2013–before that organization was on the level it is today. Anything worse than a top 10 from Kurt Busch here at Richmond this weekend would honestly be disappointing.
Jamie McMurray (2 starts remaining) – The #1 team is starting to get their mojo back, as they haven’t finished worse than 14th in the last four Cup Series races overall in addition to posting top 10 results at both Darlington last weekend and Michigan a few weeks ago. And with Jamie McMurray’s tendency to randomly fall of the face of the earth in Fantasy NASCAR, it’s best to strike when the iron’s hot. The #1 Chevrolet came home 6th here at Richmond back in April, which is promising, as is the fact that McMurray has five top 10s in his last eight starts at this track–along with no finish worse than 16th during that span. I’ll gladly take a top 10 finish from Jamie Mac here on Saturday night and save my B Group studs for later in the year.
Ryan Newman (8 starts remaining) – Don’t look now, but Ryan Newman is kind of on a hot streak. The #31 Chevrolet came home 7th at Darlington last weekend, which puts “The Rocketman” at an average finish of 9.8 over the last six Cup Series races overall. That’s better than Martin Truex, Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Larson, just to name a few. Now we’re at Richmond International Raceway, where Newman owns a career average finish of 12.1 with 17 top 10 finishes in 31 career starts (54.8%). In a Fantasy NASCAR game like Yahoo!, it’s important to maximize points with guys like Ryan Newman, and right now is the time to do so.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (5 starts remaining) – Flat tracks are where Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. really excelled during his tenure in the Xfinity Series–two-time champion, by the way–and those skills have carried over into the Cup Series as well. Stenhouse came home with a career-best 4th-place finish here at Richmond back in April, and while it’s highly unlikely that he replicates that finish in this weekend’s Federated Auto Parts 400, a top 10 isn’t out of the question. Looking at the other flat tracks on the schedule, Ricky ran 4th at Phoenix, 10th at Martinsville, and 14th at Loudon this year. This #17 team has been qualifying better as of late, too, and that would pay dividends here at Richmond this weekend.
Kyle Larson is still the best B Group option this weekend, but Richmond is far from his best track; the #42 Chevrolet did come home 2nd in this race one year ago but that is Larson’s only finish inside the top 10 in seven career starts here. He should be good for at least a top 10 finish here on Saturday night, but with only 2 starts remaining in Yahoo!, that’s not the kind of results I’m looking for. It’s tough, but chances are I’ll bite the bullet and leave Larson off of my team this weekend to save him for better start opportunities during the playoffs.
Chase Elliott is another B Group stud that doesn’t have a stellar record here at Richmond. Over his four career starts at this track, Chase owns a 17.8 average finish with a best result of 12th. He’s capable of running top 10 on Saturday night, but there are better options out there. His teammate, Kasey Kahne, has three finishes between 4th and 6th in the last five Richmond races, but as we saw at Darlington last weekend, his record at tracks really doesn’t mean anything this year. Additionally, Kahne finished 22nd here at Richmond back in April. There are better sleeper options.
Another driver on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go is Clint Bowyer. He’s a two-time winner here at Richmond and has posted top 10 results in six of his last nine starts here while running legitimate equipment–in other words, not HScott Motorsports cars. This #14 team will probably be trying any strategy they can think of here on Saturday night to get to victory lane, and part of that is because Stewart-Haas Racing simply isn’t putting race-winning cars on the track. More often than not, the strategy game doesn’t work out, so take Bowyer at your own risk.
Last week at Darlington, Ryan Blaney had a terrible average finish at the track and went out and finished 31st on Sunday night with mechanical issues. This week at Richmond, Ryan Blaney has a terrible average finish at this track (34.3) and will probably disappoint fantasy owners once again. The good news for Blaney fans is that he qualified 2nd here at Richmond last April. The bad news is that he had an average running position of 16th in that race and wound up finishing 36th after a tire went down late in the race. I only have 2 Blaney starts left and he’s much more valuable at the intermediate race tracks, so I’ll pass on him this week for sure.
I mentioned before how Ryan Newman is running a lot better as of late, and we can’t forget about his Richard Childress Racing teammate, Austin Dillon, who is coming off of a 4th-place finish at Darlington and has posted two top 10s in the last three Cup Series races overall. Unfortunately here at Richmond, Austin has typically been a mid-20s driver, with six finishes of either 20th or 27th in his seven career starts, but he did post a career-best 13th-place result in this race one year ago. He’s definitely sleeper option in Yahoo! this week, but if you do roster the #3, make sure you have a good backup plan.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Kurt Busch, (3) Jamie McMurray, (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Chase Elliott, (6) Clint Bowyer, (7) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Ryan Blaney, (10) Aric Almirola, (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) Trevor Bayne, (13) Chris Buescher, (14) Paul Menard, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Danica Patrick
Post-Qualifying B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Kurt Busch, (3) Jamie McMurray, (4) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Chase Elliott, (7) Ryan Blaney, (8) Ryan Newman, (9) Aric Almirola, (10) Austin Dillon, (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) Danica Patrick (13) Trevor Bayne, (14) Chris Buescher, (15) Paul Menard, (16) A.J. Allmendinger
Final Notes: Kyle Larson probably should have won the pole but he messed up his final lap in qualifying and will start 4th. Still, that #42 Chevrolet is really fast this weekend, at least on the short runs. Larson never showed up on the ten-lap average charts on Friday and, at a short track, that’s a bit concerning. He did finish 2nd in this race one year ago but his other six starts at Richmond have ended with him outside of the top 10. I’m glad I didn’t roster him this weekend and don’t have to make that decision, but if you did, I’d honestly probably let Larson sit this weekend unless he’s your only option. The rest of the B Group drivers looked as expected, although the Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets were terrible in qualifying and have a lot of work to do on Saturday night. They claim that their cars are good on the long runs, though, and we get plenty of those at Richmond. Still, in a week when I definitely planned on starting Ryan Newman, it’s that much more difficult when he starts back in 27th…
My Starters: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Kurt Busch over Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Richmond 2
After knocking on the door of his first Cup Series win at both Michigan and Bristol, Erik Jones followed that up with a solid top 5 finish at Darlington last weekend to make it five top 10s in a row for the rookie (and three straight top 5s). Now we’re down to the final regular season race and the #77 Toyota has as much momentum as anyone–but can Jones take the win here on Saturday night? Erik finished 38th here back in April but that was due to a flat tire in the early laps more than anything. One positive note: he wound up 8th at Phoenix, which is somewhat comparable to Richmond. One C Group driver that did have a solid race here at Richmond earlier this year was Daniel Suarez, who came home with a 12th-place result. Suarez has also been really solid on the flat tracks this year–7th at Phoenix, 6th at Loudon, 7th at Indianapolis, and 7th at Pocono–so there’s some upside there in using him in Yahoo! this week. As far as Ty Dillon goes, the #13 Chevrolet has been out-performing its usual self over the last couple of months, and this team is coming off of a great 13th-place finish at Darlington. Ty wound up 26th here at Richmond back in April but should be much better than that this time around.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) David Ragan, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
Post-Qualifying C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) David Ragan, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
Final Notes: Daniel Suarez has had a knack for getting good finishes at flat tracks this season, and he looked really good during the Happy Hour practice session on Friday, posting the 3rd-fastest lap and 6th-best ten-lap average. Erik Jones, on the other hand, looked to have top 10 speed once again but has been atrocious on the flat tracks in 2017. With that being said, can you really go against the guy right now? This #77 team is knocking off good finish after good finish and Erik has a better starting spot than Suarez on Saturday night, too (10th compared to 16th). As far as Ty Dillon goes, he qualified back in 32nd, and you don’t get points for place differential in Yahoo!. I’d only start him if you had to.
My Starter: Daniel Suarez over Erik Jones
