“The Track Too Tough To Tame” is the site of this weekend’s race, as the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series has its annual Southern 500 throwback race at Darlington Raceway on Sunday night. Yep, we’re going to be doing some old fashioned Sunday night racing this weekend. Darlington is one of the most unique race tracks on the NASCAR schedule, as it is a 1.366-mile speedway with two distinctively different turns. This will be just the third year that current drivers are racing here in September, and in the previous two races, the pole sitters have both led the most laps, but neither of them won. Just something to keep in mind heading into the race weekend.
I will post my official Yahoo! roster for Darlington on Twitter on Friday evening before lockdown. Please follow me there: @FanRacingOnline
PLEASE NOTE: We get to see practice this weekend before lockdown–there’s two sessions on Friday–but this is an impound race, as there is no on-track activity scheduled after qualifying on Saturday. Be sure to check back to this post for my final notes and my official starters for Sunday night’s Southern 500.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Darlington
Martin Truex, Jr. (6 starts remaining) – Since joining the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series full time in 2006, Martin Truex, Jr. has always had a knack for running well at Darlington. In fact, this is actually his 2nd-best track on the circuit–right behind Kentucky–as Martin owns a career average finish of 11.6 here over eleven total starts. The #78 team went to victory lane in this race last year, but it should be noted that their Toyota wasn’t the best car in the field that night. Still, a win is a win, and Truex’s average running position of 5th was 2nd-best to Kevin Harvick’s 2nd-place average. The #78 team had a rough race at Bristol a couple of weeks ago but should turn things around this weekend at “The Lady in Black.” Anything less than a top 5 finish out of Truex would be surprising on Sunday night.
Denny Hamlin (9 starts remaining) – There’s a good chance that Denny Hamlin will go under-owned in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing this weekend, so if you’re looking for a great pick that is somewhat off-sequence, he’s your guy. Hamlin probably has the most impressive record at “The Track Too Tough To Tame,” with an average finish of 6.3 over the course of eleven career starts. He went to victory lane here back in 2010 and has since finished 6th or better in all but one Southern 500–the 2014 event. Overall, Denny has six total top 5 results at Darlington and just two finishes worse than 13th. Finally, the #11 team posted another top 5 finish at Bristol a couple of weeks ago, and have now ended up 4th or better in seven of the last ten Cup Series races overall.
Kevin Harvick is going to be a threat here on Sunday night, but the question still remains whether or not the #4 team has everything figured out with their Ford engines right now. Harvick had the best car in this race last year, leading 214 of the 367 laps, but mistakes on pit road relegated him to a 2nd-place finish. He did, however, go to victory lane here back in 2014, after leading 238 of the 374 laps from the pole. Those two finishes are part of Harvick’s current four-race top 5 streak at “The Lady in Black.” And while he is definitely capable of making it five in a row this weekend, it’s not a guarantee that the #4 Ford is good enough to dominate on Sunday night–especially considering Harvick has led exactly zero laps over the last seven Cup Series races.
As far as Matt Kenseth goes, he’s officially ‘back.’ The #20 team came home 4th at Bristol a couple weeks ago and have now finished 9th or better in five of the last six races. The only exception? Michigan, where Kenseth was inside the top 5 on the final restart. As far as Darlington goes, Matt won here back in 2013 and has finished 6th or better in four of the last five Southern 500s. As far as his teammate, Kyle Busch, the #18 Toyota is one of the fastest cars in the garage right now and Rowdy has finished 11th or better in nine of his twelve career starts at Darlington. Don’t be surprised if he’s challenging for the win yet again this weekend.
The Penske Racing teammates of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are interesting options this weekend. Keselowski seems to be boom or bust at Darlington, with four finishes of 9th or better along with three results of 15th or worse in his eight career starts here. The same is true for Logano, who has four finishes outside of the top 20 completely in eight career starts at “The Track Too Tough To Tame,” although he has wound up inside the top 5 in the last two Southern 500s. Can you really trust him right now, though? I can’t.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (9) Joey Logano
Post-Qualifying A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Jimmie Johnson, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Final Notes: Kevin Harvick is rolling off the grid from 1st and should lead the most laps on Sunday night. The #4 Ford was fastest in all three rounds of qualifying and Harvick has dominated two of the last three Southern 500s. Martin Truex, Jr. qualified 2nd but it doesn’t look like his car is that great in race trim. Still, the #78 Toyota should be top 5 good on Sunday night. The same goes with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. If I wasn’t so confident in Harvick leading the most laps this weekend, I’d be starting Hamlin, because that #11 Toyota looked really fast in race trim on Friday, and Denny loves this track. Don’t be surprised if he contends for the win. The only question is: can anyone catch that #4 Ford? The closest to doing so would probably be that #42 Chevrolet of Kyle Larson.
My Starter: Kevin Harvick over Denny Hamlin
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Darlington
Kyle Larson (3 starts remaining) – Darlington is a race track where highly-skilled drivers have a little bit of an advantage, so it makes sense that Kyle Larson is good here. Over his three career starts at this race track, Larson has yet to finish worse than 10th, and he came home with a career-best 3rd-place result in last year’s Southern 500 (and even led 45 laps). The only bad thing? Kyle doesn’t really qualify well here, as he has an average starting position of 16.3 (compared to an average finish of 7th). I’m still in the mindset that you should only use your last remaining Larson starts if he can win the race, and that’s the case this weekend. The #42 Chevrolet needs to be on your Yahoo! roster for Darlington.
Chase Elliott (4 starts remaining) – Chase Elliott has made two career starts here at Darlington Raceway and has finishes of 41st and 10th to his credit. The first result deserves an asterisk, though, because Chase was in the #25 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports in that race and had to start at the rear of the field. Additionally, he had a tire issue during the race, which relegated him to that bad finish. This #24 team had an off week at Bristol a couple weeks ago (at least when you look at the finish) but should bounce back with a solid top 10 here at Darlington this weekend.
Ryan Newman (8 starts remaining) – Momentum is a hell of a drug in the Fantasy NASCAR world, and Ryan Newman is building on it every single week it seems. It all started back at Indianapolis, when “The Rocketman” raced his way to a 3rd-place finish. Since then, Newman has finished 14th at Pocono, 25th at Watkins Glen, 4th at Michigan, and 6th at Bristol. Not too shabby. As far as his record here at Darlington, Ryan is as consistent as they come, with six top 10 finishes in the last eight races and only two results worse than 13th in the last twelve. We still have to make this B Group math work as far as starts go, and Newman should provide great relief this weekend.
Kurt Busch (4 starts remaining) – Kurt Busch definitely has the talent to wheel his way around Darlington Raceway, it just comes down to whether or not he and his team can put together a mistake-free race. With that being said, the #41 Ford is actually running pretty well right now, and with his 5th-place finish at Bristol a couple of weeks ago, Kurt now has four straight finishes of 13th or better in Cup Series action. Here at Darlington, Busch owns a career average finish of 18.2 but does have six results of 7th or better in his twenty career starts here.
Ryan Blaney is capable of a top 10 finish on Sunday night and might end up making my Yahoo! roster depending on how the practice sessions go on Friday. He wheeled the #21 Ford to a 13th-place finish in last year’s Southern 500 and has been at his best on intermediate style tracks this season. I’m down to 2 starts left with Blaney in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing, though, so he’s going to have to look very fast on Friday for me to roster him this weekend.
If you’re looking for a low-owned driver that could knock off a top 10 on Sunday night, Kasey Kahne might actually be your best bet. Yes, I just said that. Kasey has a knack for racing at Darlington and actually has a better average finish (15.1) than Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano–just to name a few. Kahne wound up 7th in last year’s Southern 500 and has three top 10s in the last six. As far as trusting him in Fantasy NASCAR, though? I don’t see how anyone could.
Jamie McMurray and Clint Bowyer should both be top 15 threats this weekend but it’d be pretty surprising for either of them to challenge for a top 5. McMurray has finished between 14th and 16th in the last four Southern 500s and hasn’t had a top 10 here since 2011, while Bowyer has posted just one top 10 finish here in eleven career starts–and that was back in the 2007 season while he was driving for Childress. Jamie and Clint are trustworthy options, but as far as maximum points go, probably not your best choice.
It’s going to be interesting to see what Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. does this weekend. He’s never finished better than 18th in four career starts here at “The Lady in Black,” but at the same time he’s been one of the most consistent top 15 finishers this season. Don’t be surprised if Ricky ends up with a career-best showing here on Sunday night. Austin Dillon is another start-save option on Sunday night, as he has posted finishes of 11th, 22nd, and 12th in three career Cup Series starts at Darlington.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Kurt Busch, (4) Ryan Blaney, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Clint Bowyer, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Kasey Kahne, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Chris Buescher, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Danica Patrick
Post-Qualifying B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Kurt Busch, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Chase Elliott, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Clint Bowyer, (10) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (11) Chris Buescher, (12) Aric Almirola, (13) Trevor Bayne, (14) Paul Menard, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Danica Patrick
Final Notes: As mentioned before, the only car that I see close to Kevin Harvick heading into Sunday night is Kyle Larson’s #42 Chevrolet. Larson is great at Darlington and has been since he first raced here. He also qualified 4th this weekend and had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. He’s going to be a contender. Kurt Busch looks really good as well, and it’s not surprising considering how fast his teammate (Kevin Harvick) is. Kurt isn’t the most reliable driver here at Darlington but he starts 7th and should be a legitimate top 10 threat. Ryan Blaney is another driver that has top 10 potential on Sunday, but I wouldn’t start him unless you have to. There’s better tracks coming up for the #21 team. Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman both look like they can come away with top 15 finishes this weekend. If you need a start saver, those guys are your best option on Sunday.
My Starters: Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch over Ryan Newman and Chase Elliott
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Darlington
All three C Group studs are making their first career Cup Series starts at Darlington, so we’ll have to look at Xfinity Series efforts to kind of get a feel of who will be best in Sunday night’s Southern 500. Erik Jones raced here last season and finished 6th after starting 10th. And when you add in the fact that the #77 Toyota has almost won the last two Cup Series races, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see him come away with a solid finish this weekend. Daniel Suarez has raced twice here at “The Lady in Black” in the Xfinity Series, and came home with top 5 finishes in both of those events. Additionally, as an organization, Joe Gibbs Racing tends to run really well here at Darlington, so Suarez should be a viable option on Sunday as well. Ty Dillon has made four Xfinity starts here at Darlington and ended up between 10th and 15th in all of them. I’d expect a top 20 result out of the #13 Chevrolet on Sunday night, but that’s about it. It’s best to go with at least one of the real C Group studs this weekend. I’ll be going with both.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) David Ragan, (6) Matt DiBenedetto, (7) Landon Cassill, the rest
Post-Qualifying C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) David Ragan, (6) Matt DiBenedetto, (7) Landon Cassill, the rest
Final Notes: Erik Jones is really happy with his car in race trim but didn’t think it was very good in qualifying trim. Well, he went out and qualified 10th, so apparently the #77 Toyota was faster than he realized. In race trim, though, he wasn’t too impressive during the practices on Friday, but he probably knows his car better than I do. Daniel Suarez, on the other hand, had a poor qualifying effort (19th) but should be much better than that during the race. I view both of these drivers as having top 15 potential this weekend but Jones gets the slight nod in the rankings thanks to his qualifying position.
My Starter: Daniel Suarez over Erik Jones
