Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 marks the 15th race of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and yet another week where you’re probably going to burn some starts of the ‘studs.’ The good news is that after this week we will be able to give them a rest, as Sonoma and Daytona are the next two races on the schedule. Michigan International Speedway is a big 2-mile track, and the strongest cars will find their way to the front. With that being said, track position is very important here, as the majority of those that qualify up front, also tend to finish there.
My team points last week (Pocono): 378
Overall team percentile: 96th
Total team points for the season: 4,062
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan
When it comes to raw speed, Kyle Busch has one of the best cars this weekend. The #18 Toyota ranked 2nd-fastest in every single practice session and will start from 4th when the race gets going here on Sunday. He is a legitimate threat to win this weekend, but at the same time, you have to look at his recent performance at this track and get a little scared; Busch hasn’t finished better than 11th at Michigan since the 2013 season, and five of the last seven races here have ended with him outside of the top 30. Starting Kyle Busch for the FireKeepers Casino 400 is a huge risk, but he might actually have a tiny bit more speed than Truex.
Speaking of which, Martin Truex, Jr. qualified 2nd this weekend and was his typical self during the practices on Saturday, meaning he didn’t show his hand. That usually translates to a legitimate shot at winning on race day, and that should be the case here on Sunday as well. There’s no reason to think that the #78 Toyota won’t lead this weekend and, at worst, finish inside the top 5.
Other solid top 5 threats are Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski, who will start 11th and 12th, respectively. Harvick messed up his final lap in qualifying once again this week or else he probably would have had a shot at the pole. He’s also a fantasy ace here at Michigan, with seven top 5s in the last eight races here. Keselowski is also solid at his home track, with six straight top 10 finishes here, including top 5s in both races last season.
Joey Logano finally showed signs of life this weekend, but not enough to take a chance with starting him on Sunday (depending on who your other A Group driver is). The #22 Ford ended up 4th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday and Logano currently has eight straight top 10s at this track, which includes two wins, the most recent coming in this race last year. Jimmie Johnson wrecked in practice on Saturday and will have to go start from the rear of the field due to rolling with the backup car. That’s not a big concern, though, as the #48 team has been doing that all season. Johnson is still a top 10 threat on Sunday.
My Starter: Kevin Harvick over Brad Keselowski
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Michigan
One of the bigger surprises this weekend was Clint Bowyer, who qualified 3rd in his #14 Ford. That’s his best qualifying effort of the season, and it should pay dividends on Sunday considering how important track position is here at Michigan. Clint used to be a top 10 machine at this track when he was running for Michael Waltrip Racing, and there’s no reason to think he can’t score a solid finish here on Sunday. Bowyer ended up 8th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday.
Kyle Larson is still the #1 driver this weekend, and if you’re like me, you’re officially in a start crisis. Coming into Michigan, I only had 4 Larson starts left, and if I burn another this weekend, I’ll be down to 3 with over half of the season still left to go. However, Larson starts on the pole this weekend–where four of the last seven Michigan races have been won from–and looks to have a car that can dominate on Sunday. I don’t see how you could leave him on the bench this week.
Many expected Chase Elliott to be a potential winning threat this weekend (considering he finished 2nd in both Michigan races last year) but the #24 team just hasn’t quite found the speed. Chase should still end up inside the top 10 on Sunday, but a top 5 might be pushing. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney has plenty of speed with his #21 Ford, and he finished 4th here at Michigan last August. He laid down the 4th-best lap in Practice #2 here on Saturday and was 5th in ten-lap average in Happy Hour. Blaney will roll off the grid from 6th on Sunday and should have a great race.
Kurt Busch and the #41 team has had a bunch of speed as of late, but they haven’t shown it this weekend. Michigan has never been Kurt’s best track, though, so a 15th-place finish wouldn’t be all that surprising on Sunday. Jamie McMurray looks to be fine after that scary wreck at Pocono, and he should challenge for a solid top 10 finish this weekend. He qualified 8th and finished 9th and 8th in the two Michigan races last season.
As far as the rest of the B Group goes, I don’t see any reason to start any drivers other than those mentioned above unless you absolutely have to. Michigan is a track that requires a very strong engine, and the best cars will definitely find their way to the front. That kind of description doesn’t really go along with a start saving strategy. One thing about Michigan, though, is that races here can come down to fuel mileage. This obviously opens the door for some surprise finishers up front, but hoping for that isn’t the right strategy, either.
My Starters: Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney over Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Kurt Busch, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Ryan Newman, (9) Trevor Bayne, (10) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) Chris Buescher, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) A.J. Allmendinger
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Pocono
The C Group in Yahoo! this week is pretty much one well above the others. Erik Jones qualified 14th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 and had very few bad things to say about his car during the practice sessions on Saturday. He was 5th-fastest in the Happy Hour session and should be a legitimate top 10 threat. Meanwhile, both Daniel Suarez (qualifying tire change) and Ty Dillon (qualifying time disallowed) will be starting at the rear of the field at a place where track position means a whole lot. With that being said, Suarez was 6th-fastest in Happy Hour and should still be able to challenge for a top 15 finish, while Ty Dillon will probably end up in his usual 18th-to-24th-place finishing spot. Darrell Wallace, Jr. struggled again this weekend in the #43 Ford, qualifying 26th and barely looking like a top 20 car during the practice sessions. Michigan is an easier track to race at than Pocono but it looks like it’s best to keep Bubba on the bench once again this weekend.
My Starter: Daniel Suarez over Darrell Wallace, Jr.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Darrell Wallace, Jr., (6) David Ragan, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Cole Whitt, the rest
