The FireKeepers Casino 400 is this weekend, and in addition to the race sponsor being an awesome place to stop and gamble, the races at Michigan International Speedway tend to be pretty enjoyable. The main reason for that is because Michigan is the fastest track on the circuit, seeing as it’s a wide, 2-mile, D-shaped oval that was recently repaved. Cars will hit 210 mph heading off into the corners this weekend, and drivers will have plenty of choices on where to run on the track simply because there’s so much grip. By the way, you will see Fontana mentioned frequently throughout this article, and that’s because that is the sister track of Michigan, and we raced there back in March.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Michigan
Kevin Harvick (6 starts remaining) – After almost getting his first win of the season last weekend at Pocono, Kevin Harvick should be a contender once again at Michigan on Sunday. He hasn’t been to victory lane in the Irish Hills since the 2010 season but nobody has been as consistent as Harvick at this track over the last four years; in the last eight races at Michigan, Harvick has posted five 2nd-place finishes as well as two 5th-place results. His only bad finish? A 29th-place effort in the June 2015 race, but don’t forget that that race only went 138 laps due to a giant rain shower flooding the track. Harvick still led the most laps that day (62). This #4 team is knocking on the door of victory lane and could very well end up there on Sunday in Michigan.
Brad Keselowski (7 starts remaining) – Kevin Harvick has been great at Michigan International Speedway over the last few years, and Brad Keselowski has been right there with him. Unlike Harvick, though, Kez has never been to victory lane here at his home race track. Still, he hasn’t finished worse than 13th here since the 2011 season and has posted five top 5s in his last eleven starts here, including in both races last season. It’s only a matter of time before Keselowski wins here at Michigan. Will it be this weekend? For what it’s worth, the Blue Deuce finished 2nd at Fontana earlier this year, which is the sister track to Michigan.
Martin Truex, Jr. is the master at 1.5-mile race tracks, but 2-mile venues are a different story. He did finish 4th at Fontana earlier this year, but he only has five single-digit finishes in the last fifteen races at 2-mile tracks. Still, that #78 Toyota has a bunch of speed in it right now, and don’t forget that Truex started on the outside pole in this race last year. He led ten laps and finished 12th.
Keep an eye on the ownership percentage of Joey Logano before lockdown this week. He had another bad result at Pocono last week, but this #22 team seems to be right on the edge of turning things around. Joey won this race last year and hasn’t finished worse than 10th at Michigan since the 2012 season. If he can’t find speed this weekend, then something major is wrong with this #22 team.
On the other side of things, Kyle Busch is downright bad at this track. And there’s really no reason why. He did win here at MIS back in 2011 but that is one of only six top 10 results in 24 career starts here for Rowdy (25%). He hasn’t posted a finish better than 11th here since 2013, and five of the last seven Michigan races have ended with Rowdy outside of the top 30 completely. With that being said, Kansas also used to be a terrible track for Kyle Busch, but he turned things around there and now has five straight top 5 finishes there. Still, as far as using him in Yahoo!, it’s far too much of a gamble.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Kyle Busch, (8) Denny Hamlin, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Michigan
Kyle Larson (4 starts remaining) – We’re not even halfway through the 2017 Cup Series season and most people are already running low on Kyle Larson starts–myself included. However, after this weekend’s FireKeepers Casino 400, we’ll be able to give Larson a break in Yahoo! because we have Sonoma and Daytona up next. In other words, even if you’re low on Larson starts, you shouldn’t take the risk and leave him off of your Michigan roster. The #42 Chevrolet finished 3rd in this race one year ago and then went on to win the August race after starting 12th and leading 41 laps. Larson also won the Fontana race earlier this year after starting on the pole and leading 110 of the 202 laps. He’s a definite threat to win at Michigan this weekend and is the best B Group option as well.
Chase Elliott (7 starts remaining) – We’ve now had three first-time winners in the last five races, why not add a fourth? After a terrible month of May, Chase Elliott and this #24 team now have back-to-back top 10 finishes at Dover and Pocono and we are now at a track where they finished 2nd at in both races in 2016. Chase led a combined 66 laps in those events, too. It’s not a certainty that Elliott is going to challenge for the win this weekend but a top 5 finish is more than within reach for him. As far as the Fontana race earlier this year, Chase started 12th and finished 10th, but he had the 4th-best driver rating in that event.
Ryan Blaney (6 starts remaining) – Fresh off his win at Pocono, Ryan Blaney will be looking for another solid run here at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday–and there’s a pretty good chance that he is going to accomplish that. Big tracks that rely on horsepower is where this #21 Wood Brothers Ford is at its best, and that is the perfect way to describe Michigan. Blaney had a rough go of things in his first three career starts at this track but he wound up finishing 4th in the August race last season, and another top 5 isn’t out of reach for him and this #21 team. The only thing to worry about with Blaney this weekend is his reliability–to say he’s been inconsistent to Fantasy NASCAR players this season would be a major understatement.
Clint Bowyer (6 starts remaining) – The Fontana race–where Bowyer finished 3rd–was the first time this year that people thought, “there’s the speed the #14 car has been lacking!” and that could very well be the case once again at Michigan this weekend. Bowyer hasn’t really had a good finish since Bristol back in April but if he and his team can stop shooting themselves in the foot, they should be able to challenge for a top 10 in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400. Clint had a couple of rough races here last season with HScott Motorsports (no surprise there) but before that he he had nine straight top 10 results here from 2011 to 2015. Surprisingly enough, though, he’s only had one top 5 finish at Michigan, and that was a 5th-place result back in 2013.
Kurt Busch is a bit of an enigma this weekend. On the one hand, the #41 team is running really well right now, and they’re coming off of their second top 5 finish of the season at Pocono last weekend. However, on the other hand, Kurt Busch isn’t great here at Michigan. Yeah, he won this race two years ago, but don’t forget that the only reason he went to victory lane was because of a downpour in the middle of the race, and he hadn’t pitted yet. That’s one of only two top 5s he has here in the last thirteen races. With that being said, Busch did finish 10th and 12th in the two Michigan races last season, so I can’t really knock you for rostering him this weekend.
As far as start save options, there’s quite a few good options this weekend. Austin Dillon and the #3 team have turned a corner as of late, and he has finished 16th, 8th, and 4th in the last three Michigan races. His teammate, Ryan Newman, is right there with him as of late (performance-wise). As far as here at MIS, “The Rocketman” has wound up inside the top 15 in nine of the last twelve races here. Those two Richard Childress Racing drivers finished 11th and 15th, respectively, at Fontana earlier this year. You can expect a similar result at Michigan this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. rallied to an 11th-place finish at Pocono last weekend, and is turning into pretty much a lock at every track we stop at. His record here at Michigan is less than stellar–he hasn’t finished better than 25th here since the 2014 season–but that’ll probably be enough to scare other people away. Stenhouse is definitely a solid start save option this week, as is his teammate Trevor Bayne, who has finished 15th and 9th in the last two June races here at Michigan.
If you want to go very deep into the sleeper bag, Paul Menard is your guy. There are a couple of tracks that Menard is, for whatever reason, very good at, and Michigan is one of them. He finished 18th in both races here last season but before that had a seven race streak of finishes of 14th or better, including three top 5s. Additionally, the #27 team has been qualifying just outside of the top 10 as of late, and that should help here at Michigan.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Kurt Busch, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (9) Ryan Newman, (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) Paul Menard, (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Chris Buescher, (15) Danica Patrick
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Michigan
Darrell Wallace, Jr. had a very rough race at Pocono last week, but don’t let that keep you from rostering him this weekend. Pocono is a tough track, and the difficulty level is much less here at Michigan. Bubba finished 15th and 9th in the two Xfinity races here at Michigan in 2015 and 2016, and Almirola came home 19th after starting 31st in this #43 Ford back at Fontana. I’m still taking the stance that you have to put Bubba on your roster for the start save opportunity. As far as who else to pair him with, I will most likely be going with Daniel Suarez. The #19 Toyota has been very strong here over the last few years and Suarez came home 7th back at Fontana earlier this year. Daniel also won the Xfinity race here last year over Kyle Busch. Erik Jones should have at least top 10 speed this weekend, but when’s the last time we’ve seen him put together back-to-back solid finishes? That’s right, never. Still, a top 10 is well within reach for the #77 team. Ty Dillon has finished 24th and 14th in his two Cup starts here at Michigan and should be good for his usual teens finish on Sunday. He wound up 18th at Fontana earlier this year.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Darrell Wallace, Jr., (5) Michael McDowell, (6) David Ragan, (7) Landon Cassill, the rest
