We’re at Pocono Raceway–otherwise known as “The Tricky Triangle–this weekend for the Axalta Presents the Pocono 400. The track got its ‘tricky’ moniker because of how unique it is, being 2.5-miles and length and really only having three turns–all of which are completely different. Thus, this is a difficult track for drivers to get around. Additionally, Pocono has become a tricky situation for fantasy owners as well; in addition to typical race-affecting rain showers here, drivers have been anything but consistent at this track as of late.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Pocono
Martin Truex, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – The #78 Toyota has now led 100 or more laps in each of the last three Monster Energy Cup Series races and has finished 3rd or better in each of them as well. And when this #78 team is on a hot streak, you might as well jump on for the ride as soon as possible. As far as Pocono goes, Truex went to victory lane in this race two years ago and probably had the best car here last August if it wasn’t for a blown tire in the first 40 laps. Truex also had tire problems (and damage from Matt Dibenedetto on pit road) in the summer race last year and ended up finishing 19th. Those bad lucks bugs seem to find Truex on a much less frequent basis these days, so I’ll go ahead and roster him without hesitation. I have him ranked #1 in my pre-practice rankings heading into the weekend.
Kyle Busch (7 starts remaining) – Kyle Busch hasn’t had a top 5 finish at Pocono Raceway since the 2011 season. There, that’s probably enough to scare off some people… are you still listening? There’s a couple of reasons I like Kyle Busch this weekend, and the first is how well the #18 team is running right now. They’ve been in the ‘contender’ talk for the last month and that’s not going to suddenly change this weekend. The second–and more important–thing I like about Rowdy is how good dominant he was at Indianapolis last year. I think we all remember that race, and Indy is probably the closest track to Pocono in terms of similarity. However, it seems as though people can’t quite get over his record here, and that’s going to cause Rowdy to go under-owned in Yahoo! this week. And I’ll gladly take that off-sequence strategy any time we come here–especially considering how wacky the races at Pocono can get.
It’s hard to go against Jimmie Johnson right now, as he is another streaky driver in the Cup Series garage. Johnson has three wins here at Pocono Raceway and has finished inside the top 5 in a little over a third of his 30 career starts here. Kevin Harvick has led in each of the last five races here at Pocono and has finished 9th or better in four of those. The only exception in there was his 42nd-place finish in 2015 due to a blown engine. That #4 Ford has yet to get to victory lane this season, but Harivck should still be a top 5 threat this weekend.
The Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin both run really well here at Pocono Raceway. Kenseth won the August race here in 2015 and has finished 7th or better in three of the last four races here. Hamlin is a four-time winner at “The Tricky Triangle” and has been running really well here over the past month or so. I’m expecting a top 10 run from the #11 Toyota this weekend but I’ll have to see practice before I consider Hamlin a top 5 threat.
Another off-sequence pick I really like this week is Joey Logano. He’s a previous winner at Pocono Raceway and has finished inside the top 5 in three of the last five races here. I know this #22 team is in a major slump right now, but as we saw last week at Dover with Chase Elliott, all it takes is one problem-free race to get out of it. Logano also has a very good record at Indianapolis. As I’ve said before, being great in Fantasy NASCAR often involves perfect timing with drivers, and this could be the weekend for Logano.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Jimmie Johnson, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Kyle Busch, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Pocono
Kyle Larson (5 starts remaining) – Two weeks ago at Charlotte, we saw Jimmie Johnson miss out on a win in the final laps, and then he went on to steal a victory from Kyle Larson at Dover the next race. Who’s to say that can’t happen two weeks in a row? Pocono has been a great track for Kyle Larson over the course of his short career, as he has never finished worse than 12th in his six career starts thus far, and he has also led in four of those six events. Additionally, Larson had one of the cars to beat here last August, leading 37 of the 138 laps but ended up finishing 6th because of the rain. It won’t be ideal to only be left with 4 Larson starts after Sunday but the #42 Chevrolet could very well dominate in Pocono.
Chase Elliott (7 starts remaining) – Sometimes all it takes is one good week for a race team to get back on track, and that could very well be the case with Chase Elliott this weekend. This #24 team got out of their slump at Dover last Sunday, posting their fourth top 5 finish of the season and first result inside the top 20 since April. As far as Pocono goes, Chase finished 4th in this event one year ago and led 51 of the 160 laps (31.9%) despite starting back in 13th. He wound up 33rd in the fall race after getting caught up in a wreck. If you’re going for the top B Group talent this weekend, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are your guys.
Kurt Busch (6 starts remaining) – Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with four wins at “The Tricky Triangle,” but Kurt Busch isn’t too far behind, as he picked up his third win here in this race one year ago. And that victory really wasn’t all that surprising, considering Kurt wound up inside the top 3 in ten of his previous 25 starts at this track. The #41 team is coming off of a terrible finish at Dover last weekend, but don’t forget that Busch was challenging for the lead when he first wrecked. It’s not guaranteed that Kurt is going to be a race-winning contender here at Pocono this weekend, but there’s a good shot he challenges for a top 5.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – Here’s a start save option for you. Success at Pocono typically comes down to having a good engine package, and while Roush-Fenway Racing isn’t at the top of the list in that department, they’re getting there–and definitely improved. Stenhouse had a rough go of things in Dover last weekend, but don’t forget he led a few laps in that race and was running a typical #17 team race until the damage. Still, Ricky has ended up 14th or better in seven of the last eight Cup races overall and he finished 15th and 18th in the two races here at Pocono last season.
It’s hard to bet against Jamie McMurray this weekend. That #1 team is firing on all cylinders right now and seem to actually be getting better. With that being said, McMurray’s record here at Pocono leaves a lot to be desired: he’s never finished better than 7th at “The Tricky Triangle” and has a top 10 finish percentage of just 25% (7 in 28 career starts). I’ll leave McMurray on the bench this weekend and save my four remaining starts for later.
Ryan Blaney is someone to keep an eye on this weekend. We all know how strong that #21 Ford can be when it comes to producing horsepower, the question is just whether or not Blaney can bring it home in one piece. With his 32nd-place finish at Dover last weekend, Ryan now has six finishes of 24th or worse in the last nine Cup Series races overall. With that being said, Blaney did finish 10th and 11th in the two Pocono races last season.
As far as the rest of the B Group drivers, it’s hard to put any one of them further ahead than the others without seeing practice. The A Group typically has the best results here at Pocono, and then the B Group will fill in as such. However, if you’re in a gambling mood, go with Kasey Kahne. He’s a two-time winner at “The Tricky Triangle” and has finished 15th or better in five of the last seven races. Yeah, he continues to disappoint fantasy owners on a pretty regular basis, but that #5 Chevrolet has a bunch of speed in it as of late, and one of these Sundays Kasey Kahne isn’t going to have any bad luck.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Kurt Busch, (4) Clint Bowyer, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Ryan Blaney, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (9) Kasey Kahne, (10) Austin Dillon, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Chris Buescher, (15) Danica Patrick
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Pocono
The biggest news in the #FantasyNASCAR world this week was that Darrell (Bubba) Wallace, Jr. will be getting the chance to get in the #43 Ford for Sunday’s race at Pocono. Luckily, Yahoo! was on their game and listed him as an active driver early in the week. This will be Bubba’s first career Cup Series start, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does considering how difficult Pocono is. He did race at “The Tricky Triangle” in the Xfinity Series last year and wound up finishing 16th after starting 40th. Of the other C Group drivers, Ty Dillon is the only one with Cup experience at Pocono. He has finished 21st and 18th in this race the last two years. Additionally, Erik Jones ended up 2nd here in the Xfinity Series race last season, and you know that #77 Toyota will have the horsepower this weekend. The biggest thing for Erik will be staying out of trouble. Daniel Suarez had the best run of his season thus far at Dover last weekend and has now finished 12th or better in four of the last five Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races. Momentum alone makes him a viable option here on Sunday. Personally, I think the best strategy for Yahoo! is to have Bubba Wallace on your roster for a start save option and then one stud in case the #43 Ford looks awful in qualifying and practice.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Darrell Wallace, Jr., (5) Michael McDowell, (6) David Ragan, (7) Landon Cassill, the rest
I think the 14 would have been worth an expanded write up here. Clint(oris)has always been good on the flat tracks. New Hampshire, Phoenix, Richmond and M’ville. And those results are with 4th tier equipment. The only thing that concerns me is that SHR has not been getting results. You could argue a lot of “they were doing good until” cases, but there are no points for that. The 48 is a safety net, always. The 22, mmmm….he has not been right since his brake exploded and hurt the Aric. Something is off there. I would have gone with the 2 as the sneaky Penske pick.
I know what you mean, Mark. I like to switch things up a bit sometimes just so I’m not writing about the same drivers every week. I still have Clint ranked 4th in the B Group, though. As far as Logano, I think he’s going to be good this weekend! We’ll see. Thanks
great stuff man keep it up
Thanks Greg!