Dover International Speedway is the site of this weekend’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism, and another short (albeit not your typical) track race for Fantasy NASCAR players to enjoy. Dover is a 1-mile oval track that sees speeds get closer 200 mph than 100 mph. Still, it’s considered a short track, and those races are typically ones where you can save starts in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game. Not Dover. This is a tough, demanding race track, and the cream rises to the top each and every race. It’s time to pull out the heavy hitters and not worry about starts this weekend.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Dover
Jimmie Johnson (9 starts remaining) – Really, you only have to look at one statistic when it comes to Jimmie Johnson at Dover International Speedway, and that is number of wins. Ten. Yes, ten. In thirty career starts. Now, Jimmie hasn’t went to victory lane here in the last three races, so I guess you could say he is due. And after falling one lap short on fuel from getting the win at Charlotte last weekend, you have to just have this gut feeling that the #48 is going to win this week. For some reason, situations like that always play out. Anyway, Jimmie has plenty of speed in his car right now and this is arguably his best track. There’s no reason to not go with him in Yahoo! this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – Why would you go against the hottest team in the garage right now? Truex has now led the most laps in back-to-back races and is also the most recent winner here at Dover International Speedway. He’s also led the 2nd-most laps in the series over the last four races here, with 365. Kevin Harvick leads that category with 563 and then it’s way back to Denny Hamlin with 133 in 3rd. Finally, Truex hasn’t finished worse than 11th at Dover since the 2013 season. He’s probably going to be the 2nd-highest owned in Yahoo! this weekend–Johnson will undoubtedly be the most owned–but, as I said before, why would you go against him? I’d rather fade JJ than Truex right now.
We all know how important qualifying is at a shorter track, so Kevin Harvick‘s newly found qualifying speed should pay dividends this weekend. He finished 1st and 2nd in the 2015 races here at Dover but those are his only top 5s in the last nine races here. A pissed off Kyle Busch can either be really good or really bad for fantasy owners, but with the amount of speed that #18 Toyota has had recently, you have to think he’s going to be in victory lane soon. Rowdy has finished 2nd in the last two fall races here at Dover but his last three results in this summer race are a bit concerning: 30th, 36th, and 42nd.
After finally showing the speed (as a whole) we’ve been expecting at Charlotte last weekend, Joe Gibbs Racing teams are poised for a strong showing here at Dover this weekend. Matt Kenseth is coming off a 4th-place run last weekend and has qualified inside the top 5 in three of the last four races. Here at Dover, he’s finished 7th or better in six of the last seven. If his ownership percentage stays low, he’s a great off-sequence pick in the A Group this weekend. The Penske drivers should both be top 10 good as well. Brad Keselowski does have one win here at Dover, but he’s never really had a dominating performance at “The Monster Mile.” Meanwhile, Joey Logano hasn’t had a top 5 finish here since 2014. He’s also in a bit of a slump right now so it’s a good week to give Logano a break in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Jimmie Johnson, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Denny Hamlin, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Dover
Clint Bowyer (6 starts remaining) – If Clint Bowyer can finish 12th at Dover in a HScott Motorsports car, he should be a threat to win in Stewart-Haas equipment. Now I’m not going to go out and say that Bowyer’s going to win the AAA 400 Drive for Autism on Sunday, but a solid top 10 is definitely not out of the question. Surprisingly enough, Bowyer has just two top 5s in his 22 career starts here, but he does have twelve top 10s and an average finish of 12.4. The Stewart-Haas organization has one or two more hurdles to get over before they’re really challenging for wins, but that should come soon. The only concern you should have is the imminent re-emergence of Joe Gibbs Racing–that could push guys like Bowyer down a little bit.
Kyle Larson (6 starts remaining) – Kyle Larson has always ran well at “The Monster Mile” and now that he is in the best equipment he’s ever had, there’s no reason to think that he’s not a solid top 5 threat here on Sunday. Larson has made six career starts here at Dover and has just one result worse than 11th. Additionally, he started back in 23rd in this race last year but ended up leading 85 of the 400 laps and finishing 2nd. There’s a reason that Larson has had a driver rating of at least 99 in four of his six starts here: this track fits his driving style very well. Statistically, Dover is Kyle’s 5th-best track on the circuit.
Kurt Busch (7 starts remaining) – After a near top 5 run at Charlotte last weekend, Kurt Busch now has four top 10 finishes in the last six Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races and just keeps gaining more momentum with each passing week. Here at Dover, the elder Busch brother doesn’t have a great record, but he is a previous winner here (back in 2011) and came home 5th and 15th in the two races here last season. The one thing you really have to like about Kurt Busch this weekend–in addition to his speed lately–is his teammates: Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer can definitely teach Kurt a couple tricks to improving here at “The Monster Mile.”
Chase Elliott (7 starts remaining) – This #24 desperately needs a good finish this weekend, as Chase’s 38th-place finish at Charlotte last Sunday now makes it four straight finishes of 24th or worse for him. The good news for him is that we’re at Dover this weekend, where he is a perfect 2-for-2 thus far in finishing inside the top 5. He wound up 3rd in both races here last season. Every driver tends to go through a rough patch (or two) during their season, and it can be frustrating for fantasy owners. However, what separates the good from the great Fantasy NASCAR players is perfectly timing when to jump back on that driver’s bandwagon. I think this might be the week to do so with Chase Elliott.
Obviously I plan on going full ‘heavy hitter’ mode in B Group this week but Kasey Kahne is one guy that might end up on my Dover Yahoo! roster before lockdown. Yeah, that #5 team has struggled this season, but Kahne hasn’t finished worse than 12th in the last four races at Dover, and that includes top 5s in each of the last two summer events. Another ‘start save’ option, albeit quite a deeper sleeper choice, is Paul Menard. He has finished 11th, 8th, and 10th in the last three summer events here at Dover and is coming off a 13th-place run at Charlotte
Jamie McMurray continues to run well and is definitely a B Group option in Yahoo! this weekend. As far as my team goes, though, I’m already down to 4 McMurray starts left, and the fact that he has just two top 10s in the last seventeen races at Dover is a bit concerning. He should still be at least top 15 good this weekend, though. Ryan Blaney should also have good speed on Sunday, and he finished 8th in this race one year ago. Personally, I’m more comfortable using him on intermediate tracks, though, so I’ll save my 6 Blaney starts I have left for those.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Clint Bowyer, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) Jamie McMurray, (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Ryan Blaney, (7) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Ryan Newman, (10) Austin Dillon, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Paul Menard, (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Chris Buescher, (15) Danica Patrick
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Dover
Don’t look now but Daniel Suarez has finished 12th or better in three of the last four Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races and hasn’t ended up outside of the top 20 since Martinsville back the beginning of April. And yes, Dover is a tough track for rookies, but don’t forget that Suarez went to victory lane here in the Xfinity Series last season. I have no problem rostering Suarez once again this weekend. As far as my second C Group Yahoo! driver, it’s hard not to go with Regan Smith. The #43 Ford has finished of 16th, 31st, 5th, and 5th in last four Dover races, and Smith had a couple near-top 15 runs here while he was with Furniture Row Racing. However, Erik Jones gives us the best chance for qualifying bonus points, and he also has a win here in the Xfinity Series. Additionally, Jones led 200 total laps in his three career Xfinity starts at “The Monster Mile.” This #77 team is coming off of their second top 10 finish of the season and is a definite threat for another one this weekend.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Regan Smith, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) David Ragan, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
