At Charlotte Motor Speedway, we tend to see the race come down to a few of the drivers that started up front. For example, the last three Coca-Cola 600s have been won from a top 3 starting spot. However, there’s no real clear-cut favorite heading into Sunday, so that means we could see quite a few drivers lead some laps this weekend. Also, the aforementioned statistic doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for improvement throughout the race. This is the longest Cup race of the season so the fastest cars should eventually find their way to the front.
My team points last week (Kansas): 350
Overall team percentile: 91st
Total team points for the season: 3,112
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Charlotte
The two drivers that are most likely to lead the most laps here on Sunday night are Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, and that’s not just because they’re starting 1st and 2nd (respectively). Since unloading, the #4 Ford and the #18 Toyota have had the most speed of all Cup cars this weekend, and now it’s really going to come down to which team keeps up with the track the best during the Coca-Cola 600. Both Harvick and Kyle Busch have a legitimate shot at winning this year’s Coke 600, which would be the first trip to victory lane for either in 2017 (in a points-paying race anyway).
One driver that could potentially spoil that for Harvick and Kyle Busch, though, is last year’s Charlotte winner, Martin Truex, Jr. The #78 Toyota hasn’t been blazing fast this weekend, but the speed is there, and Truex is more than capable of leading some laps here on Sunday. He starts 8th and has three top 5s in the last four races here at Charlotte. Jimmie Johnson is another threat to take the victory this weekend, and not just because he’s gone to victory lane eight times at this track. The #48 Chevrolet has been faster than normal to start the weekend, and Jimmie put down the 5th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday. He starts 14th but should be inside the top 5 before the first Stage ends.
Both of the Penske cars have had issues this weekend, as Joey Logano has struggled to find speed, while Brad Keselowski has been decent on the speed charts but spun during Happy Hour and sustained a bit of cosmetic damage. They should both still be top 10 good here on Sunday night, but unless you have to start them, I’d leave Keselowski/Logano on the bench this weekend. I know I am. The Gibbs Toyotas look better than normal this weekend, and I think we would see a very strong showing out of all four of them on Sunday night. Don’t overlook Matt Kenseth, who qualified 4th for this weekend’s prestigious race and was 2nd in ten-lap average during Happy Hour (with the 3rd-fastest overall lap). Kenseth finished 7th and 2nd in the two Charlotte races last season.
My Starter: Martin Truex, Jr. over Joey Logano
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Charlotte
Should you start Kyle Larson this weekend? I say no. Those 9 allocated starts that we have available in this Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game are valuable, and I personally only want to use them when Larson has a chance to lead the most laps and win the race. And while the #42 Chevrolet is still more than capable of finishing top 5 here on Sunday night, there’s a lot of things that can go wrong when you start from back in 39th. I wouldn’t start him under any circumstance this weekend.
That means that Chase Elliott is the best option in the B Group this weekend, but you still have to question whether or not it is worth burning a start. However, Chase had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour this weekend and led over 100 laps here at Charlotte last October before getting caught up in a wreck. The #24 Chevrolet is definitely capable of finishing top 5 on Sunday night.
Jamie McMurray should be good for his usual top 10 finish, and he was actually pretty speedy during the final practice on Saturday. He finished 10th the last time we were at Charlotte. As far as the Stewart-Haas drivers, Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch, both have good speed in their cars this weekend and are capable of challenge for a top 5 depending on how the race plays out. Bowyer won here at Charlotte back in 2012 and Kurt is on a five-race streak of finishes 11th or better here at Charlotte.
One driver to keep an eye on on Sunday is Ryan Blaney. He mentioned during practice on Saturday that they weren’t close at all–while ironically being 1st- and 2nd-fastest in the two practice sessions–but let’s not forget how long this race is and how much the track is going to change. That could play right into Blaney’s hands. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. qualified 13th this weekend and is looking at yet another solid run. Don’t forget that he has the best average finish of all Cup Series drivers over the last six races, and he wound up finishing 15th in this race one year ago.
My Starters: Jamie McMurray and Kurt Busch over Kyle Larson and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Jamie McMurray, (4) Clint Bowyer, (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Ryan Blaney, (7) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (8) Trevor Bayne, (9) Austin Dillon, (10) Ryan Newman, (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) Danica Patrick, (13) Paul Menard, (14) A.J. Allmendinger, (15) Chris Buescher
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Charlotte
As expected, Regan Smith is in the #43 Ford this weekend, but he’s no longer a must-start based simply on the save allocation math. Jumping into a 600-mile race is difficult, and while Smith should improve upon his 25th-place starting spot during the race here on Sunday night, realistically a 20th-place finish is to be expected. Honestly the only way Smith ends up better than that is if there are some wrecks or other crazy happenings, although the #43 team has actually been pretty solid on this track type all year. The main reason I’m not going to start Regan Smith this weekend, though, is because of how fast Daniel Suarez has looked. Yeah, he qualified back in 20th but that #19 Toyota showed top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. Also, it doesn’t hurt that, this weekend, Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole looks better than they have all year. Don’t be surprised if Suarez ends up with a top 15 on Sunday night. As far as Erik Jones goes, he qualified 5th and was fast all day on Saturday, too. My main concern is how this #77 team seems incapable of keeping up with the track this year, and Charlotte Motor Speedway is going to change a lot on Sunday night. I’m expecting the typical Erik Jones slide back in the last 100 laps of this race. Also, Erik was concerned that something broke on the car in the first practice on Saturday, and that should be a red flag. The team didn’t find anything wrong but those problems sure have a way of creeping back up during the race…
My Starter: Daniel Suarez over Regan Smith
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Regan Smith, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Cole Whitt, the rest
Happy holiday weekend..
In a one and done league, trying to decide between Jimmie, E Jones, and Newman. Have already used the favorites for this race. Don’t trust Jones so it was either Newman and save Jimmie or go Jimmie, who could definelty get a top 5. Thoughts? Thanks in advance man.
I’d go Jimmie in that situation, but it’d be hard for me to not go Jones, honestly…