The races at Talladega Superspeedway are fun in a couple ways: first, they’re fun to watch, since the racing is intense and just one minor mistake by a driver can take out half of the field (literally). The second reason why the races at ‘Dega are fun is because of the fantasy aspect of it: because any driver can have a good race here on Sunday, it allows fantasy players to take chances with some of those “outside of the box” picks–which is the exact strategy I will be employing in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing this weekend.
NOTE: Since this is an impound race, there will be no Final Rankings Yahoo! Fantasy post. This post has been updated with my starters.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Talladega
Brad Keselowski (7 starts remaining) – With only 7 starts remaining (for me), putting Brad Keselowski on my roster for Talladega might seem like a dumb move–especially if I actually end up starting him, as having only 6 Kez starts for the final 26 races definitely isn’t ideal. However, let’s not forget that this is the A Group we’re talking about. There’s no sharp decline in talent after the first three of four drivers; every single A Group Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing driver is capable of winning any race at any time. In other words, I’m fine with it. Now, let’s talk about Keselowski specifically. He might be the best racer at Talladega Superspeedway. In sixteen career starts here, BK has already accumulated four victories (25%) and nine total top 10s (56.3%). He’s only two wins behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who has seventeen more attempts than Keselowski. Additionally, this #2 team is running great this season, with only two finishes worse than 6th thus far. One of those was in the season-opening Daytona 500 (he finished 27th) but Brad still had the 9th-best driver rating in that race. Keselowski is the defending winner of this Talladega race and will be a force to be reckoned with this Sunday as well. The #2 team will be without crew chief Paul Wolfe this weekend but that’s not a big deal at a restrictor plate track.
Kevin Harvick (7 starts remaining) – Like I said, I’m not too concerned about starts in this A Group. Kevin Harvick had a great race in this year’s Daytona 500 despite finishing 22nd (he did lead the most laps–50) and he has been solid here at Talladega as well: with 32 career starts at this track, “Happy” has averaged a finish of 15.1 (4th-best) with one victory and 14 total top 10s (43.8%). In addition to that, this #4 team is starting to gain some good momentum and is coming into the GEICO 500 race weekend three straight top 5s. Harvick’s Stewart-Haas teammate, Kurt Busch, won the first plate race this year, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if the #4 team got their first 2017 victory in the second one.
Literally any A Group driver is on the table this weekend. I have found that putting a bunch of research into a restrictor plate weekend is usually a waste of time, but I still crunch the numbers to get my final rankings. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is going to be very highly owned this weekend but I just view that as a great fade opportunity. Obviously he is great at this race track, plus he has finished of 1st, 2nd, and 40th in his last three starts at Talladega, but the #88 Chevrolet has seemed off in almost every race this year, not to mention every plate race over the last year and a half. Earnhardt is the only A Group driver that definitely won’t be in my lineup this weekend. If you’re looking for a great ‘outside of the box’ pick in the A Group on Sunday, how about Martin Truex, Jr.? Throughout his career he has been a terrible plate racer, but he’s really been coming on as of late. Also, don’t forget that Truex started on the pole here at Talladega last October. The big downside is that he has ten DNFs in 24 starts here (41.7%). Keep an eye on his ownership percentage before lock, though. If it’s less than 15% he’s definitely worth considering. Truex could surprise some people Sunday.
Truex’s quasi teammates over at Joe Gibbs Racing are still looking to find their mojo, and that’s not the best situation to be in coming into Talladega. Kyle Busch is hot and cold at this track and has just one top 10 finish in the last five races here (2nd in this event one year ago). Denny Hamlin emerged as a top plate racer in 2016 but is much better at Daytona than Talladega. With that being said, Hamlin does have finishes of 3rd, 9th, and 1st in his last six races here. Finally, Matt Kenseth knows how to get to the front and lead laps in plate races, but when you consider that the #20 team is disappointing on a weekly basis this year, as well as the fact that Kenseth has ended up 20th or worse in six of the last seven races here at Talladega, it’s just not a good combination.
EDIT: Brad Keselowski’s ownership percentage is sky high so I’m going to take this opportunity to fade him. I’m going with Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson in the A Group, and I will start Kevin Harvick on Sunday. Keselowski is still the best option this weekend.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Brad Keselowski, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Joey Logano, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (6) Kyle Busch, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Martin Truex, Jr., (9) Matt Kenseth
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Talladega
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – There’s no reason that Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. shouldn’t be the most-owned B Group driver this weekend. First off, he’s an excellent restrictor plate racer, and Talladega is his second-best track on the circuit–right behind Bristol, where he just finished 9th at a couple of weeks ago. In seven career starts here at ‘Dega, Stenhouse has averaged a finish of 11.7 (series-best) with only one result worse than 16th. It’s easy for a driver to get lucky for a couple of races here at Talladega, but to put up that consistency over the span of four years requires a lot of skill. The second reason to like Stenhouse this weekend is the improvement of Roush-Fenway Racing as a whole. The #17 and #6 teams are legitimately battling for top 15 finishes week in and week out, and that confidence boost should help them this weekend. Also, it’s worth noting that Ricky has led in five of his seven career starts here. Bonus points, baby!
Trevor Bayne (8 starts remaining) – Trevor Bayne started out his Cup Series career with a surprising Daytona 500 victory, and because of that most Fantasy NASCAR players hopped on the Bayne Bandwagon at Daytona and Talladega…and boy was that a bumpy ride. However, Bayne is starting to get his mojo back on the plate tracks, and, as mentioned before, the Roush-Fenway Fords are much improved this season overall. Bayne wound up finishing 10th in this race one year ago and ended up 17th in the fall event. In this year’s season-opening Daytona, the #6 Ford finished 10th after starting 11th. Bayne might end up being over-owned in Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing this week but, at the same time, he has a very good shot at coming home with a solid top 10 finish.
Kurt Busch (8 starts remaining) – The elder Busch brother is an interesting option in the Yahoo! Fantasy B Group this week. At the start of the year, many people had him penciled in as a sure 9-start driver, but after a disappointing first quarter, that’s nowhere near a guarantee. However, Kurt won the Daytona 500 and he hasn’t finished worse than 12th in his last five Talladega starts, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him walk away with another good finish here on Sunday. Additionally, this #41 team is starting to run a little bit better as of late, as Busch has two top 10s in the last three Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. If you’re into somewhat-obscure stats, I looked at the last ten Daytona 500 winners, and they have averaged a finish of 17.1 in the first Talladega race. It has really been hit-or-miss, though, as those drivers have posted five finishes of 8th or better along with four finishes of 26th or worse.
Austin Dillon (9 starts remaining) – You can’t go to a restrictor plate track without considering the #3 Chevrolet and Austin Dillon. He may be disappointing fantasy owners in most races this season but Austin is definitely capable of coming home with a solid top 10 finish here at Talladega on Sunday. Dillon has made seven career starts here at Talladega and has wound up inside the top 15 in five of those races. In this race last year, he grabbed his first top 10 with a 3rd-place finish, and then backed that up with a 9th-place result in the fall race after leading his first career lap at this track. Austin Dillon is another driver to keep an eye on on Thursday. If his ownership percentage gets too high (over 35%), it might be worth fading him.
Of the three ‘top tier’ B Group drivers–Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Clint Bowyer–the only one I would even think about rostering is Chase Elliott, and that’s just because the #24 Chevrolet is great at qualifying on plate tracks. There is no way I would start any of them, no matter how many starts I had left in this Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game. Those three drivers are just far too valuable at other tracks.
Ryan Newman often gets overlooked at restrictor plate tracks but don’t forget that he has finished 14th or better in five of the last seven races here at Talladega. Paul Menard, who also races for Richard Childress Racing, is pretty much only viable at plate tracks, and if his ownership percentage stays low, he makes a great off-sequence pick. Menard has finished 13th or better in five of the last seven Talladega races and four of those finishes were 6th or better. Additionally, the #27 Chevrolet came home 5th in this year’s season-opening Daytona 500.
One driver that I probably have ranked a little too low going into the GEICO 500 race weekend is Jamie McMurray. The #1 team has finished inside the top 10 in five of the last eight Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races and McMurray is a two-time winner here at Talladega specifically. He has finished 4th and 11th in this race the last two years. Ryan Blaney is one B Group Yahoo! fantasy driver that is worth a shot, but I’d only consider it if you have 8 or 9 starts left. The #21 Ford is in now way lacking in the speed department, and that should pay dividends here on Sunday. Blaney has made five career starts here at Talladega Superspeedway and has wound up 11th or better in three of them. Additionally, he finished 2nd in this year’s Daytona 500.
EDIT: I will be starting the pole sitter, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., on Sunday along with his teammate, Trevor Bayne.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Clint Bowyer, (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Austin Dillon, (7) Trevor Bayne, (8) Ryan Newman, (9) Jamie McMurray, (10) Ryan Blaney, (11) Paul Menard, (12) Kasey Kahne, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) A.J. Allmendinger, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Chris Buescher
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Talladega
The top three C Group drivers–Erik Jones, Ty Dillon, and Daniel Suarez–will give us a total of 27 starts throughout the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. That means that there are 9 other races where we will need to use a different driver in this group. In other words, there’s absolutely no reason for those top three guys to be on your Yahoo! Fantasy Auto roster at a restrictor plate track. You may throw one on there for potential qualifying bonus points, but there’s no reason to actually start them on Sunday. As far as which ‘replacement’ driver you should go with for the GEICO 500, the most obvious choice here is Michael McDowell. He has above-average equipment and finished 21st and 16th in the two Talladega races last season. McDowell also finished 15th in this year’s season-opening Daytona 500. Landon Cassill is another solid pick, as Front Row Motorsports tends to be at their best on these plate tracks. Cassill finished 16th at Daytona this year and wound up 11th and 21st in the two Talladega races in 2016. The other Front Row Motorsports driver, David Ragan, is always a decently popular pick on restrictor plate tracks as well, mainly because he has wins at both Daytona and Talladega. He’s a solid restrictor plate choice. If you want a driver that is a bit ‘outside of the box,’ take a look at Elliott Sadler. Remember, he started dead last in this year’s Daytona 500 but actually led 5 laps and ended up finishing 20th.
EDIT: McDowell and Cassill are my two C Group drivers this week, and I will probably be starting McDowell.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) David Ragan, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, (8) Elliott Sadler, (9) Cole Whitt, the rest
