The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway is this weekend, which will be the seventh race of the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. It’s hard to believe that we’re already 1/6th of the way through this year. As far as this weekend’s race, it’s kind of an unknown what to fully expect; Texas Motor Speedway went through a repave and reconfiguration since we last raced here in November, and perhaps the biggest issue there is that nobody has tested on this new surface. Momentum is worth considering a little more than usual this weekend when it comes to making Fantasy NASCAR picks.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Texas
Brad Keselowski (8 starts remaining) – Just like Martinsville last weekend, Texas Motor Speedway is another race track that Brad Keselowski has yet to get to victory lane at. That could all change this weekend, though. This “new” Texas track is getting a lot of comparisons to Kentucky Speedway, and Brad’s record over there is quite impressive: six career starts, three wins, and an average finish of 8.2. As far as momentum goes, there’s no one hotter in the garage than Keselowski right now, considering he hasn’t finished worse than 5th since the Daytona 500 and has collected two wins along the way. As I said before, momentum isn’t a terrible thing to take into consideration when making early Fantasy NASCAR picks this weekend, and BK is #1 in that ranking. He should be at least top 5 good here at Texas on Sunday.
Martin Truex, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – Don’t be surprised if the #78 Toyota is the class of the field once again this weekend. Remember, Truex dominated the race at Las Vegas last month–winning all three stages and collecting his first win of the 2017 season–a track that has a similar surface to this ‘new’ Texas Motor Speedway. The other race track that is comparable is Kentucky, and Truex led 46 laps and finished 10th in that fuel mileage race last season. This #78 team is consistently at the top of the charts on these 1.5-mile race tracks, and with this 2017 season still being relatively young, it’s not a bad idea to go with momentum, either; Truex has an average finish of 8.8 this season and his pit crew has been one of the fastest in the garage on race days, which could pay dividends this weekend.
Joey Logano is always a pretty safe bet on the intermediate tracks, but the #22 team has yet to show that they can get to the next level (meaning victory lane) this year. That dominating race is going to come soon, though. Don’t forget that the #22 Ford was probably the best car here at Texas Motor Speedway last November, as it led 178 of the 293 laps…for what that’s worth. When you think of Kentucky Speedway, you think of Kyle Busch. This new Texas Motor Speedway has an asphalt similar to Kentucky so that could boost Rowdy’s fantasy value this weekend. It doesn’t hurt that the #18 Toyota has been one of the best cars (and in position to win) in two of the last three races.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Brad Keselowski, (2) Martin Truex, Jr. (3) Joey Logano, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Kevin Harvick, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (9) Matt Kenseth
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Texas
Chase Elliott (7 starts remaining) – If Hendrick Motorsports is going to get to victory lane anytime soon, chances are it’s going to be with Chase Elliott. This #24 team has gotten off to the best start among the Hendrick fleet and is knocking on the door of victory lane each and every week. Chase has emerged as a legitimate week-to-week top 5 threat on the intermediate race tracks and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be up there this weekend as well. On the “old” Texas Motor Speedway, he made two starts in the Cup Series and wound up with a top 5 finish in each race. It’s going to be hard to make the Chase Elliott Yahoo! starts last very long in Yahoo! this year but at the same time leaving him off your roster this week is giving your competition a major advantage.
Kyle Larson (7 starts remaining) – The same is true with Kyle Larson. We’re only six races in to the 2017 Cup season and some teams are already down to 4 or 5 starts left–but can you blame them? This #42 team had a decent run going at Martinsville last week (top 10) until the car started losing power in the final laps. They still ended up with a 17th-place finish but I’m sure Larson was glad to get out of there. Looking at Texas Motor Speedway, Kyle is probably going to be happy that there was a repave. His record here has been decent–two top 10s, four top 15s in seven career starts–but still a little down compared to what we have come to expect. This #42 Chevrolet ran 2nd in the Las Vegas race this year and Larson should be able to challenge for the win this weekend at the “new” Texas, too.
Ryan Blaney (8 starts remaining) – This #21 Ford has had a bunch of speed in it this season and that shouldn’t change this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. And if Ryan Blaney doesn’t drive like a jackass for the second week in a row, he should be able to come away with a good finish, too. The good thing for Blaney is that we aren’t at another short track this week and being overly aggressive at an intermediate track isn’t very common. The thing you have to like most about Ryan this weekend is his effort at Las Vegas earlier this year; in that race, the #21 Ford started from 3rd, had the 6th-best driver rating, and ended up finishing 7th. For those that like to look at trends, since Daytona Blaney has been switching off between single-digit finish and double-digit finish. If that continues this weekend, he should add another single-digit result to his record.
Clint Bowyer (8 starts remaining) – It appears as though Clint Bowyer has settled into his groove in his new Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, and even though the rest of the organization is under-performing in a big way, Bowyer has actually been out-performing predictions this year. Since Daytona, Clint has just one finish worse than 11th, and that was his 13th-place result at Phoenix. He grabbed another top 10 last week at Martinsville and now has three in the last four Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races overall. It’s hard to really know what to expect with this “new” Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and because of that, it’s not a terrible idea to go with momentum when it comes to early week Fantasy NASCAR picks. Bowyer has the 6th-best average finish (12.7) in NASCAR this year, and that includes his 32nd-place result in the Daytona 500.
Jamie McMurray should have plenty of speed once again this weekend and challenge for another top 10. He burned a lot of people at Martinsville last weekend–myself included–but it’s hard to place all the blame on the the driver for a cut tire and not pitting. Jamie Mac has finished inside the top 10 in all three intermediate track races this season and wound up 7th at Kentucky last year. One wildcard driver to watch in the B Group this weekend is Kurt Busch. Yes, this #41 team has been awful since the Atlanta race but the repave and subsequent minimal tire falloff might help Kurt this weekend. On the “old” Texas Motor Speedway he had three top 10s in the last five races. Austin Dillon finally got his first top 5 (and top 10) finish of the season at Martinsville last weekend. That #3 team has been on an upward trend for the last month or so and Austin is a great off-sequence pick in Yahoo! this week. Remember, he was on the pole here at Texas last season. His teammate, Ryan Newman, grabbed his second top 10 of the season at Martinsville but that #31 team has yet to prove that they are good enough to run up front on intermediate tracks.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Jamie McMurray, (4) Ryan Blaney, (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Kurt Busch, (9) Ryan Newman, (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (12) Aric Almirola, (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Paul Menard, (16) Chris Buescher
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Texas
We pretty much know what we’re going to get out of Ty Dillon on the intermediate tracks right now: he qualifies between 18th and 24th and ends up finishing between 15th and 20th. That kind of consistency is nice out of a C Group driver this early in the season, but at the same time you have to look at ways to maximize points, too. Erik Jones has had a whole bunch of speed thus far in 2017 but has only one top 10 finish to show for it: an 8th-place finish at Phoenix. That #77 teams consistently fades at the end of races, and while that is an issue they should be able to work out this season, it’s probably best to hold on to his starts until they do. Daniel Suarez has lucked into two good finishes over the last three races, and who knows, he might be able to do that again this weekend. Also, with the “new” Texas Motor Speedway, it could benefit Suarez’s driving style a bit. It doesn’t hurt that this #19 Toyota was consistently strong at Kentucky, or that it was the last car in victory lane here at Texas. Therefore, I’m going to roll the dice this weekend and go with Ty Dillon and Daniel Suarez as my two C Group drivers–and hope Erik Jones doesn’t have his breakthrough race.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) Matt DiBenedetto, (7) David Ragan, the rest
