The first real short track race of the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season is this Sunday as the teams head to Martinsville Speedway for the STP 500. It’s going to be all about track position this weekend, as the inside line will have a major advantage on restarts due to the track layout. Also, we should see plenty of cautions on Sunday, simply because it is the nature of short track races. This will also be our first glimpse of stage racing at a short track. In other words, the 2017 STP 500 could be the craziest race of the year so far; hold on and have fun, ladies and gentlemen.
EDIT: It’s looking like qualifying may be a rain out on Friday. If so, the starting lineup will be set by points.
Yahoo! A Group Early Picks and Rankings for Martinsville
Joey Logano (8 starts remaining) – Despite starting in the rear at Fontana last weekend, Joey Logano was still able to rally back late for a 5th-place finish, and has now ended up 6th or better in all but one race this season. That bodes well for this #22 team heading into this weekend’s STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Logano has run very well here at “The Paperclip” over the last few years but hasn’t gotten the finish he deserves at times. Still, you don’t lead over 400 laps in the last six races here at Martinsville because of luck. Joey has started on the front row in each of the last five Martinsville races, and if he can do that again this weekend, it should pay major dividends on Sunday. It’s a toss-up in my book between Joey Logano and Kyle Busch as the top A Group driver this week.
Denny Hamlin (9 starts remaining) – Short tracks are an excellent opportunity to take a contrarian strategy–especially when you want to try and make up some points–and when you combine a contrarian strategy with a driver that is historically good at the track, it’s almost a perfect combination. Denny Hamlin is a five-time winner here at Martinsville Speedway but, as of Wednesday morning, was only on 18% of Yahoo! rosters. Yes, this #11 team hasn’t found the top 5 yet this season, but that could easily change here on Sunday. Hamlin has finished 3rd or better in three of the last four races at “The Paper Clip” and has wound up inside the top 5 in over half of his 22 career starts here. Joe Gibbs Racing is a little slow getting out of the gate this year, but keep in mind that this is the first real short track race of 2017. JGR had three of the top five finishers here at Martinsville last October.
Brad Keselowski has three top 5s in the last four Martinsville races, and in the one event he didn’t end up near the front, he led 143 laps. He’s never won at this track but he’s knocking on the door. This is another week where Martin Truex, Jr. will be easily overlooked, but let’s not forget he has finished 6th or 7th in three of the last four races here–including last fall, where he sat on the pole and led 147 laps. Jimmie Johnson is a nine-time winner here and because of that will be highly owned in Yahoo! this week. Is this a good fade opportunity? If the #48 team is going to get their first top 5 finish of 2017 this weekend, it’s going to take a good qualifying effort–something Johnson hasn’t been able to do since Daytona.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Martin Truex, Jr., (5) Denny Hamlin, (6) Kevin Harvick, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (9) Matt Kenseth
Yahoo! B Group Early Picks and Rankings for Martinsville
Clint Bowyer (9 starts remaining) – Clint Bowyer is a capable racer here at Martinsville Speedway when he is in better-than-average equipment. Yes, he’s finished 25th or worse in three of the last four races here, but don’t forget that two of those were in HScott Motorsports rides and the other two were the final year of Michael Waltrip Racing. Before that, Bowyer had six straight top 10 finishes here at Martinsville, and with the momentum this #14 team has right now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him add another to his resume here this weekend. Clint has never won at “The Paperclip” but he has led 356 laps here throughout his career, which is good enough for 11th-most among active drivers.
Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – Jamie McMurray could very well end up being the top performing B Group driver here on Sunday. He has finished inside the top 10 in three of the last four Martinsville races as well as five of the last eight. Momentum-wise, McMurray is following the lead of his teammate, Kyle Larson, and has been strong in every single race this season. Also, this #1 team is coming off of their best finish of the year last week at Fontana (6th) and they haven’t ended up worse than 15th since the Daytona 500. With a good qualifying effort here on Friday, Jamie Mac could actually be a contender on Sunday, believe it or not.
Ryan Newman (9 starts remaining) – Nobody should expect “The Rocketman” to steal another win this weekend, but a top 10 finish is well within reach for this #31 team this weekend. Newman has finished inside that mark in nearly half of his 30 career starts here at “The Paperclip,” and he also has eight top 5 results to his credit here, including a win back in 2012. He finished 10th in this race one year ago and has wound up inside that mark in three of the last five here. Newman isn’t going to out there and dominate Sunday’s STP 500, but a solid top 12 finish is probably to be expected out of the #31 Chevrolet.
A.J. Allmendinger (9 starts remaining) – From a Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing strategy perspective, short track races are the best time to save the studs in the B Group–and in case you haven’t noticed, that’s exactly what I am going to do this weekend. This #47 team has been largely disappointing thus far in 2017 but running well on the intermediate tracks and running well on the shorter tracks are two totally different things. A.J. finished 2nd in this race one year ago and has wound up 11th or better in five of the last six events here at Martinsville Speedway. He also has the 10th-best average running position over those six races (14.0). Allmendinger knows how to run well here at Martinsville, now it’s just up to his team to give him a race car that can get it done.
Putting one B Group ‘stud’ on your team this week (as an insurance policy of sorts) isn’t a bad idea, and Kyle Larson is the one to go with–depending on your start situation, of course. Kyle ran 3rd in this race one year ago and has been the best driver in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series this season. It would in no way be surprising if he had another top 5 run here on Sunday. As far as the other B Group ‘stud’–Chase Elliott–his record here isn’t great, but can you really go against that #24 Chevrolet right now? Apart from some terrible pit strategy calls at Fontana last weekend, this team has been great all year long. Chase qualified 5th and finished 12th here last October. Kurt Busch is hit-or-miss here at Martinsville, and it’s more likely to be miss. He did have that win here back in 2014 (with a half-wrecked race car) but that’s Kurt’s lone top 10 in the last 22 starts here…and that’s not a typo. Also, with the problems the #41 team has been running into since Daytona, Kurt is almost too risky in Yahoo! this weekend–and that’s an analysis from someone who loves to gamble.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Jamie McMurray, (3) Chase Elliott, (4) Clint Bowyer, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Kurt Busch, (7) Ryan Blaney, (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Austin Dillon, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Danica Patrick, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Paul Menard, (15) Chris Buescher, (16) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Yahoo! C Group Early Picks and Rankings for Martinsville
Daniel Suarez has been able to squeeze out back-to-back top 10 finishes over the last two weeks mainly due to the late restarts we had in each race. So now the question becomes, how will he do here at Martinsville? The good news is that he is in a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and they have been one of, if not the strongest organization here at Martinsville as of late. I might be late to the party but I’m going to roll the dice with the #19 Toyota this weekend. Neither Erik Jones or Ty Dillon have made a Cup start here at “The Paperclip,” and seeing as the #77 Toyota has been very strong on the intermediate tracks so far in 2017, I don’t want to waste a start here at the unpredictable Martinsville. Therefore, I’m going to pair the #13 Chevrolet and Ty Dillon with Suarez on my roster this weekend. I know “Saving The Studs” was my strategy with the B Group this weekend, but I’m not confident enough to do that with the C Group considering this is the first short track race of 2017.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Landon Cassill, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) David Ragan, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
