If the late caution and restart at Phoenix last weekend shook up your Fantasy NASCAR rosters, prepare for that to possibly happen again this weekend because it’s not uncommon for the exact same thing to happen here at Auto Club Speedway. There’s a reason that three of the last six Fontana winners have led 5 or less laps in that particular race, and five of the last seven have led 27 or less laps. In other words, the dominator typically doesn’t win here.
My team points last week (Phoenix): 230
Overall team percentile: 80th
Total team points for the season: 1,102
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Fontana
With it looking like it will be a B Group driver who leads the most laps this weekend, that means you really just need the best finish possible out of your A Group driver. However, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have one that could possibly lead the most laps in case something happens to Kyle Larson. That’s why I have Martin Truex, Jr. ranked #1 in the A Group heading into Sunday. Both Furniture Row Toyotas have great short and long run speed this weekend, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if Truex wound up in victory lane here on Sunday. He starts 4th. Of course, you can never count out Kevin Harvick to lead a bunch of laps, either. He qualified 7th and showed pretty good speed during the two practice sessions on Saturday, winding up 5th in ten-lap average during that final session. Harvick has finished 2nd in each of the last two Fontana races and had the car to beat here last year.
As far as the two A Groupers starting in the back–Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson–that shouldn’t deter you from starting them. Auto Club Speedway is a wide race track that allows for plenty of passing, and they both have sticker tires to start the race on Sunday. They should both be inside the top 15 soon after the first round of pit stops. Speed-wise, the #22 Ford looks better than the #48 Chevrolet. Logano wound up 4th in this race one year ago and could easily replicate that finish this weekend.
My Starter: Kevin Harvick
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Denny Hamlin, (5) Kyle Busch, (6) Joey Logano, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Fontana
Can Kyle Larson finally get his second career Monster Energy NASCAR Cup win? Keep in mind that he got his first victory last year at Michigan International Speedway, which is a similar 2-mile race track where the cars were running the ultra low downforce package. As far as speed goes this weekend, Larson has probably had the best car since the teams unloaded on Friday. He grabbed the pole here on Friday and then had some great averages on Saturday, including the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. If you rostered him this week, you have to start him because he could dominate this race on Sunday. He’ll be going for the weekend sweep, too, as he won the Xfinity race on Saturday.
The other B Group stud, Chase Elliott, is a solid Fantasy NASCAR choice once again this weekend, but as far as Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing goes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy. If you’ve already started Elliott two or three times this season, it wouldn’t be a terrible move to leave him on your bench this weekend; the #24 Chevrolet is top 5 good this weekend, but as far as leading laps and potentially winning the race, Elliott isn’t quite there heading into Sunday. So, strategy-wise, it may be better to hold onto those Chase starts for another race.
Jamie McMurray, the other Ganassi driver, starts 8th on Sunday and should be top 10 good once again. This #1 team has been solid on the intermediate tracks this season and they also finished top 10 in both Michigan races last year. McMurray had the 7th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday. Last week’s winner, Ryan Newman, had a great qualifying effort this weekend (5th) and is a viable option if you want to use him. He has posted five top 10 finishes in the last seven races here at Fontana. Ryan Blaney qualified 19th this weekend but should race better than that. The #21 Ford was 3rd-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday and ranked 6th in ten-lap average.
Looking at other possible options in the B Group this weekend, Kurt Busch had some issues with his alternator once again on Saturday, and that has to be concerning for fantasy owners. He has disappointed almost every week since winning the Daytona 500, so it’ll be best to just hold off on starting him for now. Clint Bowyer showed good speed on Saturday and could sneak into the top 10 on Sunday. He’s kind of flying under the radar this weekend and would be a nice off-sequence pick. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is another sleeper option. He has finished 5th and 15th in the last two races here at Fontana and qualified 16th for Sunday’s Auto Club 400.
My Starters: Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Larson, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Jamie McMurray, (4) Ryan Blaney, (5) Clint Bowyer, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Kurt Busch, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Austin Dillon, (12) Paul Menard, (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola (16) Chris Buescher
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Fontana
It’ll be interesting to see how the C Group drivers end up here at Auto Club Speedway on Sunday. Surprisingly, Daniel Suarez has shown a whole bunch of speed all weekend long, but can you trust him enough to start him? Yes, he finished 7th at Phoenix last weekend, but don’t forget that he had an average running position of 25th in that race. Erik Jones, on the other hand, has also had a whole bunch of speed and is a lot more trustworthy. Honestly, this is the most confident that I’ve heard Jones be all season long, and he might’ve had the best car (on average) over the three practice sessions this weekend. If he doesn’t fade late in the race–which seems to be something Erik likes to do–it wouldn’t be surprising if the #77 Toyota winds up solidly inside the top 10 on Sunday. Ty Dillon is having a normal weekend, and as long as he doesn’t run into any problems during the race, should finish in his typical mid-teens spot.
My Starter: Erik Jones
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Erik Jones, (2) Ty Dillon, (3) Daniel Suarez, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) Cole Whitt, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
