Whenever you think of a NASCAR Sprint Cup races at an intermediate race track, the word “boredom” usually comes to mind. However, the races here at Texas Motor Speedway are a bit different. This is a very rough and worn out race track, and managing tire wear could end up being the difference between winning and finishing outside of the top 10 on Sunday. And while there are multiple racing grooves here at Texas, starting up front is usually a pretty big advantage, as the last few races have seen the majority of those who qualified up front also finish up there.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Texas 2
Jimmie Johnson (6 starts remaining) – Jimmie Johnson may have punched his ticket to Homestead with his win at Martinsville last weekend, but don’t expect him to lay back and drive less aggressively in these next two races. As far as Texas goes, while Johnson does have very impressive records at quite a few race tracks that the Sprint Cup Series visits, his performance here in the Lone Star State lately might make this his best track right now; the #48 Chevrolet has went to victory lane in five of the last eight Texas races and has won this particular race each of the last four years. That kind of dominance is almost unbelievable. And with Hendrick Motorsports’ recent major resurgence on the cookie cutter race tracks, don’t be surprised if “Six Time” collects his seventh win here at Texas this weekend.
Kyle Busch (3 starts remaining) – If you flash back to our first Texas Yahoo! Auto Racing post, it’s kind of the same yet opposite situation. Back for that race we had Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch as our two A Group drivers, and one of them was coming off of a win at Martinsville–Kyle Busch. This time around, Johnson is the guy that’s coming off of that big Martinsville win one week ago. But anyway, if Johnson is the number one lock pick here at Texas, Kyle Busch is a close second. Rowdy went to victory lane the last time we raced at this track and has finished 4th or better in six of his last seven starts in the Lone Star State. When you combine that with the fact that this #18 Toyota has been at least a top 5 threat in every single Chase race this season, there’s really no need to even consider any other drivers that these two. Kyle Busch is hungry for a win and wants to defend his championship at Homestead later this month. Don’t be surprised if he punches his ticket this Sunday.
Kevin Harvick is listed by Vegas as the co-favorite going into the weekend along with Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Martin Truex, Jr. Obviously you can never found the #4 Chevrolet out, but that team’s disappointing day at Martinsville is a little concerning. It’s possible that their move to Ford next season is having an affect on their strength with Chevrolet this season, as Hendrick Motorsports seems to be thriving. Brad Keselowski was absolutely dominant in this race last season but ended up 2nd. For the next two weeks, he just wants to (1a) help Logano advance and (1b) just win, baby. Kez has three top 5s in the last four Texas races. Matt Kenseth hasn’t had a top 5 here at Texas since the 2013 season but that could very easily change this weekend. He’s went to victory lane twice at Texas. Kenseth’s teammate, Denny Hamlin, also has had trouble finishing races here lately, as he hasn’t had a top 5 at Texas since his back-to-back wins here in 2010. If this #11 team is a real championship contender, though, they need a top 5 this weekend.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Jimmie Johnson, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Matt Kenseth, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Joey Logano, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Texas 2
Martin Truex, Jr. (2 starts remaining) – This #78 team might be out of the Chase but they’re not out of the hunt at Texas. Martin Truex, Jr. arguably had the best car here back in April but not having fresh tires at the end of the race really screwed him and relegated this #78 team to a 6th-place finish. Martin still led the most laps that night (141) after starting 3rd. Overall, Texas Motor Speedway has actually been one of Truex’s better tracks on the circuit, as he has a career average finish of 14.3 here with eleven top 10s in twenty-two career starts (50%). This #78 Toyota has been the best on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and that’s not going to change this weekend. We’ve saved our last two Truex starts for here and Homestead, and if you have any left, he needs to be on your roster this weekend.
Kasey Kahne (4 starts remaining) – This #5 team cranked out another good finish at Martinsville last weekend (11th) and they have now wound up 12th or better in eight of the last nine Sprint Cup races. And the one bad race they had during that span was at Talladega, so you can count that however you would like. Here at Texas, Kasey has a 17.8 career average finish and has ended up 11th or better in six of his last nine starts in the Lone Star State since joining Hendrick Motorsports. We all know that Hendrick as a whole is clicking right now, so don’t be surprised if Kahne walks away with another top 10 finish this weekend. He finished 8th here back in April.
Carl Edwards (2 starts remaining) – The #19 team had an expected subpar race at Martinsville, and it’s probably going to be win or bust for Edwards as far as this year’s championship. The good news for Cousin Carl fans is that he has gone to victory lane on three occasions here at Texas Motor Speedway, and he also had one of the best cars when we were last here in April, as Edwards started on the pole and led 124 of the 334 laps en route to a 7th-place finish. Overall, Carl has a career average finish of 14.2 at this race track and he’s currently on a four-race streak of top 10 results here–one that we expect will extend to five on Sunday. Just like Truex, if you have any Edwards starts left, we feel like he has to be on your roster this weekend.
Austin Dillon (2 starts remaining) – We debated for quite a while whether to roster Austin Dillon or Kasey Kahne with this fourth B Group spot, and while we’re still not 100% sure what we’re going to do this weekend, right now we have Dillon on the roster. The upside is higher with Larson but Dillon is a more safe bet. In the last six Texas races, Dillon hasn’t finished worse than 22nd, and in this race one year ago he wound up finishing 11th. What we really like about him this weekend, however, is how strong this #3 Chevrolet has been on the intermediate race tracks this season. Most recently, Dillon came home 6th at Kansas. We still might switch to Larson before lockdown this weekend, but as of now Austin Dillon will be our fourth B Group driver in Yahoo!.
As mentioned, Kyle Larson isn’t a bad Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend. He has two top 10 finishes here at Texas Motor Speedway but both of those came back in 2014. He hasn’t finished better than 14th in his four other Sprint Cup starts here. His teammate, Jamie McMurray, also makes a solid choice this weekend, especially if you’re out of starts with the top drivers in the B Group. McMurray hasn’t finished worse than 13th here in the last four races here at Texas, and three of those were top 10 results. As usual, you never really know what you’re going to get out of Tony Stewart. Sometimes that car has speed and sometimes it doesn’t. Smoke has four finishes of 11th or better in his last eight Texas races. A couple of sleepers are the Roushkateers of Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Trevor Bayne, who have both done pretty well this season on the intermediate race tracks. Stenhouse has finished 16th, 21st, and 15th in the last three Texas races and Bayne has posted seven results between 15th and 20th in his twelve career starts at this race track.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Kasey Kahne, (4) Austin Dillon, (5) Kyle Larson, (6) Jamie McMurray, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Tony Stewart, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Danica Patrick, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Paul Menard, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Texas 2
Jeff Gordon made his final 2016 start at Martinsville last weekend, so it’s going to be the Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney show for our Fantasy Racing Online team until we run out of starts with the former. We’re down to one Elliott start left and three Blaney starts. The last time we were here at Texas, Chase Elliott started 4th and ended up finishing 5th, and with the way this #24 team has been running on intermediate tracks lately, don’t be surprised if they’re in the conversation to win this weekend. Blaney started 7th and finished 9th when we were last here back in April. If you’re out of either of those guys, obviously Alex Bowman is going to be your guy this weekend. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. actually finished 2nd here at Texas back in April in that #88 Chevrolet, but we all know about Bowman’s struggles to finish races in the Sprint Cup Series this season. He has made four career starts at Texas with a best finish of 32nd.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) David Ragan, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
