The Goody’s Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway kicks off the Round of 12 this weekend, and it should be a race that is dominated by the Yahoo! A Group drivers. None of the B Group entrants are very good here (at least consistently), as this is a track that elite talent can really help despite any minor issues the race car might have. The pit crews will have to be mistake-free this weekend, as one penalty can easily put a car down multiple laps since this is a tiny half-mile venue. What’s interesting with the races here at Martinsville is that typically the spring event has one dominant race car, but the fall event here usually has two or three drivers that share the lead for most of the race.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Martinsville 2
Denny Hamlin (6 starts remaining) – Hamlin barely made it through the Round of 12, but here he is, and don’t be surprised if he punches his ticket to the Championship Round here at Martinsville on Sunday. There are a few things that we really like about this #11 team this weekend: 1.) they have been one of the best qualifying teams all season long, and at a short track like Martinsville, that’s going to pay dividends. 2.) The #11 pit crew is one of the fastest in the garage, and that can also make a huge difference at a short track. And, of course, 3.) Denny Hamlin is a five-time winner at “The Paperclip” and has posted an average finish of 9.5 in twenty-one career starts here. He’s a very safe Fantasy NASCAR option this weekend, and probably won’t be as highly owned as you think in Yahoo! (as of Wednesday morning, he’s at 20%).
Kyle Busch (3 starts remaining) – Rowdy is our #1 ranked driver overall heading into the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 weekend, and part of that is due to the fact that he dominated the race here back in April. In that event, he started 7th and led 352 of the 500 laps and had a driver rating of 148.2. That was his first career Sprint Cup victory here at Martinsville Speedway and his fourth top 5 finish in his last seven starts here. Overall, Kyle Busch has compiled ten top 5s in twenty-two career starts here (45.5%) with an overall average finish of 14.5. Momentum-wise, Kyle Busch still has the best average finish (9.0) over the last six Sprint Cup races overall despite his less-than-100% effort at Talladega last weekend. When this #18 team has actually tried in this year’s Chase, they haven’t finished worse than 8th, and that shouldn’t change this weekend.
Now that Brad Keselowski is out of championship contention, we think that the #2 team is going to be in full out test mode in preparation for the 2017 season. This usually means a boom or bust performance for fantasy owners, and a little too risky of an option for us. And for what it’s worth, Keselowski has finished 32nd and 31st in the last two fall races here at Martinsville. His teammate, Joey Logano, always has a great car here but can’t seem to finish the deal. He has three straight poles at Martinsville, though, and could ride that momentum from his Talladega win right into Martinsville victory lane as well. Jimmie Johnson is going to be interesting to watch this weekend. He hasn’t finished better than 9th in the last four races here but he’s an eight-time winner at “The Paperclip” and that #48 Chevrolet has had a whole bunch of speed as of late. Kurt Busch isn’t very good here, but he had that surprise win back in 2014. With that being said, that’s his only finish better than 11th in the last twenty-one races at this track! He might be worth a play in some other fantasy leagues, but not Yahoo!.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Denny Hamlin, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Brad Keselowski, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Martinsville 2
Carl Edwards (2 starts remaining) – Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Carl Edwards has gotten progressively better here at Martinsville. We saw the same thing happen to Matt Kenseth when he made the move. Anyway, back in April, Edwards posted his best finish here (6th) since way back in 2008, and this #19 team will definitely be looking to build on that this weekend to keep their 2016 championship hopes alive. It seems like every year, the remaining Chasers always step up their game in the final few races no matter what their previous history is like at that track, and we expect the same to happen with Edwards this weekend. In other words, we’re ignoring the fact that he has just one top 10 in the last nine races here. We’re not planning on starting Cousin Carl this weekend, but he’s going to be on our roster just in case the #19 team really hits on something.
Austin Dillon (2 starts remaining) – In his first four starts here at Martinsville, Austin Dillon was always decent, as he posted three finishes between 12th and 18th in those four starts. He really broke through here back in April, though, when the #3 Chevrolet came home 4th despite starting back in 29th. Can lightning strike twice? This #3 team continues to surprise us on pretty much a weekly basis, and Austin would still be in the championship hunt if the start/finish line at Talladega was 25 feet closer to turn four. Dillon should be top 15 good this weekend with a shot at a top 10 depending on how the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 plays out.
A.J. Allmendinger (5 starts remaining) – A.J. Allmendinger is a legitimate Fantasy NASCAR option in all league formats this weekend. Not only has this #47 team found quite a bit of speed lately, but Allmendinger has had quite a bit of speed here at Martinsville for quite a while now; he tied his career-best finish here (2nd) back in April and that makes it four finishes of 11th or better for The Dinger in the last five races at “The Paperclip.” In this race last season, A.J. started 3rd, led 19 laps, and ended up 11th when the checkered flag flew. If you’re low on starts with any of the “heavy hitter” B Group drivers, Allmendinger is a must-use option this weekend–and he might even be considered that if you’re not low on starts, too. As of Wednesday morning, only 21% of Yahoo! teams had A.J. rostered.
Ryan Newman (3 starts remaining) – Martinsville isn’t Ryan Newman’s best track on the Sprint Cup circuit, but he’s a very consistent finisher here, and sometimes that’s what you need in the Fantasy NASCAR world. “The Rocketman” has started inside the top 10 in each of the last four races here at “The Paperclip” and has finished inside that mark in three of those events. Overall, Newman has a career average finish of 15th at this race track with a 48.3% top 10 finish rate (fourteen in twenty-nine starts). Additionally, this #31 team hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the three Sprint Cup races, and should make it four after this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. is another driver that could go into experiment mode now that his championship hopes have been killed. He has finished 6th in two of the last three Martinsville races, and the alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing should help him a lot moving forward. We think he’s too valuable at the Texas and Homestead races coming up, though, so he’s not going to make our roster this weekend. We have that same mindset with Kyle Larson this weekend, who posted a career-best finish of 3rd here at Martinsville back in April. That’s his only finish better than 19th in five career starts here, though. Kasey Kahne ended up 9th in this race one year ago and finished 11th in the 2015 spring race here at Martinsville. The bad luck bug hit him at Talladega last weekend, though, and we know how that thing can follow Kahne around once it bites… Jamie McMurray could be a top 10 threat this weekend, but it’s nowhere near a guarantee. He wound up 2nd in this race one year ago and has four top 10s in the last seven Martinsville races. Tony Stewart could also be valuable this weekend, as he has finished 10th and 4th in the last two Chase races here at “The Paperclip.”
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Ryan Newman, (4) Austin Dillon, (5) Kasey Kahne, (6) A.J. Allmendinger, (7) Kyle Larson, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) Tony Stewart, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Greg Biffle, (12) Aric Almirola, (13) Danica Patrick, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Clint Bowyer, (16) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Martinsville 2
Jeff Gordon is the clear #1 C Group driver this weekend, but that could change after practice and qualifying. He’s a nine-time winner at this race track and won this race one year ago. He also has a series-best average finish of 6.8 here. As far as the other C Group viable options, Chase Elliott started 10th but ended up finishing 20th when we raced here back in April, and Ryan Blaney had a similar event, started 12th and finishing 19th. It will be interesting to see whether Chase Elliott can improve this weekend considering how much better Hendrick Motorsports has gotten since the Chase has started. He also has a little bit less pressure on him now that he has officially been eliminated from this year’s Chase. We’re also wondering whether or not the #88 team will be in test mode this weekend to prepare for the 2017 season, and that could turn into mechanical issues on Sunday. Trying to predict those is pretty impossible, though. Right now our plan is to roll with Jeff Gordon and Ryan Blaney in the C Group for the Martinsville 2 race.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Jeff Gordon, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) David Ragan, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
