The final restrictor plate race of the season is this Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, and if you know anything about the races at these big tracks, you know that anything can happen during these events and it’s usually best to just sit back and enjoy the race weekend as opposed to the typical cycle of a Fantasy NASCAR weekend spent analyzing a bunch of numbers and data. If you’d like to see the 2016 restrictor plate statistics by driver, though, we have compiled the averages (click here to view). Practice times do not matter much here at Talladega, and neither does starting position; typically the races here come down to who is at the right place at the right time in the closing laps.
NOTE: There will not be a second Yahoo! post this weekend.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Rankings for Talladega 2
Kyle Busch (3 starts remaining) – From a numbers perspective, there’s not a whole lot of things to dislike about Kyle Busch this weekend. First and foremost, this #18 team hasn’t finished worse than 3rd on a restrictor plate track this season, and Kyle Busch has had a driver rating of at least 93.0 in three of the last four races here at Talladega. Additionally, Rowdy has been on fire since the Chase started, with no result worse than 8th and top 5 finishes in three of the last four events. He’s a previous winner here at Talladega (back in 2008) and has finished inside the top 5 in four of the last eight races at this track, including two of the last four October events. It’s hard not to rank Kyle Busch #1 heading into the Alabama 500 race weekend.
Brad Keselowski (6 starts remaining) – Brad Keselowski isn’t in must-win territory this weekend, but it would sure make his 2016 championship run a lot easier if he got to victory lane on Sunday. And it’s not like he hasn’t won here at Talladega before; in addition to winning this exact race two years ago, Keselowski also won here the last time we raced (back in May), and those are just two of his four toal wins here in fifteen career starts. As far as the three restrictor plate races ran so far in 2016, the #2 Ford has had the best average driver rating (112.9) and 3rd-best average finish (7.3). With three top 5s in the last four Talladega races, it’s hard not to consider Brad Keselowski a definite contender this weekend.
Kevin Harvick hasn’t put up great finishes here at Talladega as of late (his last top 5 came back in 2011), but he’s been consistent; in the last five Talladega races, Harvick has never finished worse than 15th. He has no pressure on him this weekend either thanks to the win at Kansas. The same goes with Jimmie Johnson, who has been a great qualifier here at Talladega as of late (four straight top 5 starts) but he has just two top 10s in the last ten races here. Denny Hamlin‘s #11 Toyota has been one of the strongest on the restrictor plate tracks this season (100.2 average driver rating) but he doesn’t always get the finish. He needs a good run this weekend if he wants to keep his championship hopes alive, though, and we don’t really consider Denny a “clutch” performer, so that hurts his fantasy value a bit this weekend.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Brad Keselowski, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Kurt Busch, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Matt Kenseth, (8) Joey Logano
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Rankings for Talladega 2
Austin Dillon (2 starts remaining) – Austin Dillon is also going to be racing for his Chase life this weekend, and the good news for him is that it’s at Talladega. Austin is one of the better restrictor plate racers in the Sprint Cup Series and he’s one of those drivers that stays relatively calm under pressure, especially considering this is just his second full time season in NASCAR’s top league. Austin came home with a career-best 3rd-place finish when we last raced here at Talladega, and he’s finished 15th or better in four of the last five races here. Also, he has the 2nd-best average finish (6.3) on restrictor plate tracks this season. He’s one of the best B Group options this weekend.
Jamie McMurray (3 starts remaining) – Jamie Mac is a two-time winner here at Talladega Superspeedway with his most recent victory coming in this race three years ago. Additionally, he’s finished 11th or better in three of the last six events at this track, and when you look at the three restrictor plate races we’ve ran in 2016, the driver of the #1 Chevrolet has the 6th-best average driver rating of everyone (90.2). With that being said, McMurray will probably be a pretty popular pick in the B Group this weekend, so if you want to go against the crowd he may not be your best option.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is our go-to guy on the restrictor plate tracks, especially Talladega. It seems like he runs his best on these and the flat tracks, although with the gains that Roush-Fenway Racing has made, the #17 team is starting to run well on intermediate tracks, too. Anyway, Stenhouse has made six career starts here at Talladega Superspeedway and has finished 16th or better in five of those. He has an average result of 14.3 through the first three plate races this season and should be good enough for another top 15 in the Alabama 500 on Sunday as well.
Trevor Bayne (8 starts remaining) – We’re sticking with the Roush-Fenway Fords here and taking a bit of an off-sequence pick in Trevor Bayne this weekend. It’s not a secret that this #6 team has majorly improved this season, and Bayne has, in turn, started to find his mojo back on the restrictor plate tracks: he finished 10th in the first race here at Talladega back in May and then followed that up with a 3rd-place finish in the second Daytona race back in July. Sometime it’s nice to root for Fantasy NASCAR drivers that you don’t normally select, and, as we said before, Bayne’s ownership percentage should be relatively low this weekend.
Unless you’re sitting with a bunch of starts left with Martin Truex, Jr. and/or Carl Edwards, there’s no reason to put either of those guys on your roster this weekend unless it is for potential qualifying points. We have 2 starts left with each and they will be much more valuable in the final four races than here at Talladega. We still might go with Kasey Kahne this weekend simply because that #5 team has been so strong over the last couple of months. He’s not the best plate racer, though. Paul Menard is another solid option this weekend, as he has finished 6th or better in four of the last six races here at Talladega. Also, his teammate, Ryan Newman, has emerged as a pretty good plate racer lately, as he has wound up 12th or better in five of the last eight races here.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Austin Dillon, (3) Carl Edwards, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Paul Menard, (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Clint Bowyer, (10) Jamie McMurray, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Tony Stewart, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Greg Biffle, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Rankings for Talladega 2
There are a lot of different strategies you can take in the C Group this weekend. The best options are obviously Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, but if you’re low on starts with one (or both) of them, you’re going to be looking for different options. Alex Bowman is in the #88 Chevrolet this weekend, and while he has been speedy in every race he’s subbed for so far, let’s not forget that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. couldn’t get the handling to his liking in the other restrictor plate races this season. Statistic-wise, Michael McDowell is actually the 2nd-best C Group driver this week, as he has an average finish of 15.3 on the plate tracks this year. Ryan Blaney has been a smidge better at 14.0. After McDowell, Cassill is next (21.7 average finish) and then Chase Elliott (24.7). That #24 Chevrolet has had great speed in all of the plate races this year, though, and should get some qualifying bonus points this weekend. We’re going to go with Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney as our two C Group drivers this weekend, and there’s a 99.9% chance that the latter will be our starter.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) David Ragan, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Brian Scott, (9) Chris Buescher, the rest
