We’ve gotten to crunch time. The Chase starts with this weekend’s TMNT 400 at Chicagoland, and this also marks the beginning of the final segment in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto game. It’s time for those that have saved up the Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney starts to unleash them, and we hope you have a few Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. starts in the B Group for these final ten races. Chicagoland is a 1.5-mile race track that we didn’t start racing at until 2001, and we only visit this place once a year. As far as similar tracks go, we think that Las Vegas and Kansas are the closest to Chicagoland, but it’d be worth looking back at all of the races ran this season at 1.5-mile tracks if you want a true comparison. We expect all of the Chase teams to run well here on Sunday, and it should be noted that the last four races here have been won by either Joe Gibbs Racing or Penske Racing.
“You’ve gotta be kidding me” were the exact words spoken once Matt Kenseth wrecked out of last weekend’s Richmond race, and that gave our official Fantasy Racing Online team just a 248-point week. We just seem to have a curse with A Group drivers this year. Heading into the final ten races of the season, we’re in the 74th percentile overall, but we like where we’re at with our critical starts remaining.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Chicagoland
We like both of our A Group picks (Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick) to potentially win the TMNT 400 at Chicagoland on Sunday. Keselowski has the track position to start the race (he starts 2nd) but Harvick might have the better car, as he looked really good in Saturday’s practice sessions, ranking inside the top 3 in both in terms of ten-lap average. Additionally, the #4 Chevrolet was one of the best cars in this race last season before the run-in with Johnson (and subsequent flat tire) and Harvick has three top 5s in the last five races here. On the other hand, Keselowski hasn’t ended up worse than 8th at Chicagoland since 2010 and that won’t change this weekend. Both Penske cars look good this weekend and Kez ranked 6th on both ten-lap average charts on Saturday. You can’t really make a bad pick between the two but we’re going to go with Kevin Harvick as our A Group driver this week.
EDIT: Last-minute breaking news was Kevin Harvick had to start from the rear. We switched to Brad Keselowski.
Looking at the other A Group drivers…Jimmie Johnson has looked very sporty this weekend, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if that team suddenly got back into their old form now that the Chase has started. Johnson has finished inside the top 5 in half of his starts here at Chicagoland and has a career average finish of 9.3. Joey Logano will start back in 9th on Sunday due to qualifying getting rained out but he still has top 5 potential. As mentioned before, both of the Penske cars look good this weekend. Logano has finished 7th or better in three of the last four Chicagoland races. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin all have speed and, as usual, can’t be counted out on Sunday. That organization has won two of the last three races at this track.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Brad Keselowski, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Chicagoland
We’ll start with the B Group driver that we’re eliminating from starting first, and that is Jamie McMurray. Yeah, that #1 team worked their ass off to get into the Chase, and the whole Ganassi organization has been performing out of this world lately, but it just doesn’t look like McMurray is capable of a top 10 finish this week–at least heading into Sunday. A 12th- to 15th-place finish is much more likely for him, and while we would be perfectly happy with that for much of this season, this is the Chase and we’re going for max points.
One of our drivers that we’re going to go ahead and lock in as starting on Sunday is Martin Truex, Jr. He’s at his best at these 1.5-mile race tracks and this weekend is no exception. The #78 Toyota ranked 5th during the first practice session on Saturday and was 7th-fastest in Happy Hour, along with ending up 11th and 4th on the ten-lap average charts. Truex has a legitimate shot to win this race and lead a bunch of laps, and we’re going to use one of our last four remaining starts here at Chicagoland.
Now we have to decide our second starter, and that’s going to be either Kyle Larson or Austin Dillon. The former was fastest in both practice sessions on Saturday but didn’t quite show the long-run speed to make him a great pick. Still, that #42 team is on fire and Larson could very easily challenge for the win here on Sunday. Austin Dillon, on the other hand, has shown more speed than he has in a while and could end up inside the top 10 here on Sunday. It doesn’t hurt that that #3 team has been working really well together over the last few weeks. The better pick is Larson but with 2 starts remaining the strategic pick is Austin Dillon, and that’s who we’re going with this weekend…probably.
Carl Edwards should be at least a top 10 car on Sunday but you never know when this #19 team is going to hit on something during the race and end up inside the top 5. He showed top 5 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday but it’s hard to get an accurate read on Carl when he doesn’t make long runs. Kasey Kahne has shown a whole bunch of speed this weekend and could end up in the top 12 on Sunday despite starting back in 19th. Chicagoland has been one of his better tracks of late and that team has a bunch of momentum lately. Tony Stewart is in the Chase but it doesn’t look like that #14 team has gotten much better. We have him near the top 15 heading into Sunday but that’s nowhere near a guarantee.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Carl Edwards, (4) Austin Dillon, (5) Kasey Kahne, (6) Jamie McMurray, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Tony Stewart, (9) Trevor Bayne, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (12) Greg Biffle, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Chicagoland
All three of the viable C Group drivers actually haven’t looked to terrible this weekend. Alex Bowman has actually showed the most speed, as he wound up inside the top 10 in two of the three practice sessions this weekend. He’ll start from 17th, which isn’t terrible, but he has yet to actually put together a whole race in that #88 Chevrolet. If he does this weekend, though, don’t be surprised to see Bowman’s name in the 13th to 16th range. As far as Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney go, Chase has the starting position advantage (14th to 22nd) and both of them are pretty comparable on speed. One thing to notice, however, is how many laps the #24 team has ran this weekend, which is usually a good sign. Chase Elliott is the best option this weekend but Ryan Blaney has sneaky potential to get up there and challenge for a top 10, too (it’s not like he hasn’t done it before). We plan on rolling with the #24 on Sunday, but that might change. Blaney will definitely be on some of our other rosters, though.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) David Ragan, (6) Ty Dillon/Regan Smith, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Brian Scott, the rest
