After a gloomy-looking forecast earlier in the week, the weather wasn’t terrible at Michigan International Speedway on Friday and Saturday, although the Happy Hour practice session got cancelled about halfway through. Rain shouldn’t affect the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday much, if at all. The races here at this fast, 2-mile race track are typically some of the easiest to predict. Starting up front here is a pretty big advantage considering the track type, and it’s going to be difficult to pass here on race day. There were two practice sessions here on Saturday, but the first one was held so early in the morning it’s hard to put much weight into those speeds. Analyzing the Happy Hour speed chart will be much more beneficial.
Last week, we had a typical Bristol race with our Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing team. We don’t know what it is about that track but it seems like we never have a good week there. We ended up with 234 points and now sit in the 68th percentile. Luckily, Michigan is usually a very good track for us from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan 2
We have a dilemma this weekend. Now, it’s a very good situation to be in, but still a dilemma nonetheless. And that is: which A Group driver should we start–Joey Logano or Kevin Harvick? The #22 Ford and the #4 Chevrolet are going to be the two favorites on race day, and unless both of these cars have mechanical issues on Sunday, it’s hard to imagine any other getting to victory lane. So, as far as which one starts, it’s has to come down to which driver will probably lead the most laps, and for us that is Joey Logano. He will start on the pole yet again here at Michigan, and if you remember back to the June race here, he dominated from that starting spot and ended up in victory lane. We honestly see that happening again this Sunday with the Pure Michigan 400, unless Harvick has significantly better long-run speed–which is not out of the question, as that has been the case a lot this season. However, Logano’s crew chief, Todd Gordon, was so impressed with their race car that he didn’t even want to practice on Saturday, so as soon as we heard that, our decision was made: we’re starting Joey Logano on Sunday.
Unfortunately Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing doesn’t award points for place differential, so the fact that Brad Keselowski starts 18th takes down his fantasy value a bit this weekend. He should still be a solid top 10 car when it’s all said and done, though. As we mentioned in our Yahoo! Preview this week, Denny Hamlin is a nice off-sequence pick here at Michigan (less than 9% of teams have him). He qualified 3rd on Sunday and didn’t look too bad in Happy Hour on Saturday, posting the fastest lap in that session. Also don’t forget that he has a 6.5 average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races, and he ended up 5th in this race one year ago. Jimmie Johnson qualified 2nd this week but, honestly, we can’t trust him right now. He’s going to be boom or bust this weekend, and keep in mind that Hendrick has a whole looks to have found a lot of speed here in the Irish Hills.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Denny Hamlin, (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Brad Keselowski, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Kurt Busch, (8) Kyle Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Michigan 2
We stayed away from Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend based simply on strategy, so our four B Group drivers for the Pure Michigan 400 are Jamie McMurray, Kyle Larson, Tony Stewart, and Austin Dillon. We’re not in a particularly bad spot as far as spots in the B Group right now, but start saving is still on our mind, and because of that, we’re definitely going to start Jamie McMurray this weekend. He qualified 8th for Sunday’s race and hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the last five races here at Michigan. Additionally, this #1 team is fighting for their Chase life and have ran pretty well as of late, posting four top 10s in the last six Cup races overall. McMurray should be at least top 15 good here on Sunday.
So now it really comes down to Tony Stewart or Kyle Larson for us. Austin Dillon has been struggling all weekend long, and the fact that final practice was shortened on Saturday didn’t help him much. When it comes to Stewart or Larson, it’s really a game of how much you’d like to gamble. The latter finished 3rd here back in June and is in desperate need of a win if he wants to make the Chase. This weekend, Larson will roll off the grid from 12th and he had top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. Stewart, on the other hand, wound up 7th in the first Michigan race this season and also showed good speed during the practice sessions this weekend, including laying down the fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. Heading into Sunday we have Kyle Larson starting alongside Jamie McMurray, but that could change. Both Larson and Stawart have top 10 potential this weekend.
As far as Edwards and Truex, neither of them have shown top 5 speed this weekend, so if you do have them on your roster for the Pure Michigan 400, we wouldn’t recommend wasting a start on Sunday. Yes, they both have the potential to get up there inside the top 5, but it’s nowhere near a guarantee. Ryan Newman starts 10th and has finished 15th or better in five of the last six races here at Michigan. He’s another one of those safe Fantasy NASCAR picks this weekend but it’s hard to see him finishing better than 10th without some strategy coming into play. Kasey Kahne is another driver that is consistent here at Michigan and he actually showed quite a bit of speed during the practice sessions on Saturday. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the Sonoma race back in June, though, and we don’t see that changing this weekend. The Roush-Fenway Fords of Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. are decent options in place differential leagues but not that great in leagues like Yahoo!.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Tony Stewart, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) Paul Menard, (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Greg Biffle, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan 2
It’s going to be really hard to leave Chase Elliott on the bench this weekend. The #24 Chevrolet finished 2nd here back in June and Chase mentioned on Friday that the track was very similar this weekend to where it was two months ago. He also qualified 5th for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 and showed great speed during the practice sessions on Saturday. The reason we’re considering leaving him on the bench is because there’s thirteen races left and we have eleven starts left between him and Ryan Blaney, but it’s hard to pass up a potential top 5 finish out of a C Group driver. As far as Blaney goes, he starts 7th on Sunday and, while he wasn’t as fast as Elliott on Saturday, the #21 Ford should be at least top 15 good. However, with three finishes of 19th or worse in the last four Sprint Cup races, it’s very hard to trust him right now. As far as our roster goes, our second C Group driver is Alex Bowman, and he has actually been pretty impressive this weekend. He qualified 6th for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 in that #88 Chevrolet and showed top 10 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. If you’re lower than us on Elliott/Blaney starts, we think you need to start Alex Bowman this weekend, but as far as our team goes, we’re starting Chase Elliott on Sunday.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) David Ragan, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Regan Smith, the rest
