One of the most anticipated races of the year is upon us: the Bristol night race. This year’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race is set to be a great one, too, with just four races left before the Chase starts. Those on the bubble will be looking to get a win and lock themselves into this year’s playoffs, and with Chris Buescher nearing the top 30 in points, there’s about to be one less spot “on points” available. Focusing back on the race, though, we ran here at Bristol back in April and it was Carl Edwards who led over half of the race (from the pole) and got to victory lane. One thing was apparent, though: track position was very important. We expect it to be just as important here on Saturday night (August 20, 2016).
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Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Bristol 2
Matt Kenseth (8 starts remaining) – Looking back at this year’s spring race here at Bristol, Matt Kenseth had one of the best cars but he blew a tire after leading 142 laps and ended up finishing 36th. He also had a top 5 car in the August race here last season but blew an engine and wound up finishing 42nd. In the four Bristol races before that, however, Matt didn’t have too bad of luck and collected a pair of wins along with a 3rd-place finish in the 2013 August race. In all, when he can avoid trouble, Kenseth is one of the best Fantasy NASCAR picks when the Sprint Cup Series stops at Bristol. Over his thirty-three career starts here, he has amassed four wins along with thirteen top 5s (39.4%) and twenty top 10s (60.6%). With 8 Kenseth starts still remaining for us, he’s definitely making our Yahoo! team for Bristol 2.
Joey Logano (6 starts remaining) – This #22 team came home with another top 5 finish at Watkins Glen a couple of weeks ago and it’s hard not to consider Logano the favorite heading into Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol. He won this race last year as well as during the 2014 season, and Logano hasn’t finished worse than 8th in the summer Bristol race since the 2011 season. In this year’s April race here at Bristol, the #22 Ford started 3rd, led four laps, and ended up 10th when the checkered flag flew–and that was back when this team wasn’t quite hitting on all cylinders. Joey also had a speeding penalty and a couple of other pit road mistakes during that race. Looking at the last five Bristol races, Logano has an average driver rating of 102.1 (4th-best) and has led a total of 268 laps (5th-best).
Kyle Busch probably had the best car here back in April, but his early meeting with the wall relegated him to a 38th-place finish. He’s still a solid top 5 pick this week, though, and would have made our roster if we weren’t so low on starts. Brad Keselowski remained on fire with his 3rd-place finish at Watkins Glen, and he has now finished 6th or better in eight of the last eleven Sprint Cup races. He’s a two-time winner here at Bristol and could still make our roster this week. Kevin Harvick is always good here at Bristol, but as we’ve stated before, we’re trying to save him for the Chase. Also, do you trust his pit crew right now? That’s going to be an important factor this week. Speaking of being untrustworthy, Jimmie Johnson had another terrible finish at Watkins Glen. He’s capable of finishing top 5 here at Bristol but there’s no reason to take the chance, in our opinion. Denny Hamlin is our question mark of the week. He always qualifies well here at Bristol but only gets the finish about half the time. He did win here back in 2012.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Matt Kenseth, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Kevin Harvick, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Kurt Busch, (8) Jimmie Johnson
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Bristol 2
Carl Edwards (5 starts remaining) – Cousin Carl is definitely going to be one of the favorites heading into the Bristol 2 race weekend, and for good reason: he’s won two of the last five races here and ended up 7th in two of the other races during that span. The only finish that wasn’t great over the last five Bristol races was the 2015 spring race, but if you remember back, the #19 Toyota was a solid top 5 car but Edwards wrecked in the closing laps and ended up finishing 24th. In all, Carl hasn’t had a driver rating under 100.0 in the last six Bristol races and has led 633 total laps during that stretch. He’s won here four different times throughout his career, and that ties for 4th-best among active drivers. Even if you’re low on starts with Carl Edwards, he should probably be on your roster this weekend: he could very well dominate the Saturday night race.
Ryan Newman (5 starts remaining) – We have a formula that takes into account a driver’s last six results at the upcoming track as well as the last six races in the Sprint Cup Series overall. There are quite a few other calculations, and it’s usually pretty accurate in determining the best Fantasy NASCAR picks for the upcoming race. Well, this weekend, Ryan Newman came out 3rd in those rankings, and while we don’t actually think he’s the 3rd-best driver for the Bristol 2 race, an unexpected result like that is something that we always like to note. Currently, “The Rocketman” is on a three-race streak of top 10 finishes here at Bristol, and throughout his twenty-nine career starts here in Thunder Valley he has finished inside that mark sixteen times (55.2%). Newman is one of those drivers that can usually stay out of trouble during a race, and if he’s able to do that in this year’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, he should be able to come home with another good finish. Also, as far as consistency goes, the #31 Chevrolet has finished 12th or better in seven of the last ten Sprint Cup races overall.
Tony Stewart (5 starts remaining) – Smoke has never been great here at Bristol Motor Speedway, but when you’re hot, you’re hot. With his 5th-place run at Watkins Glen a couple weeks ago, Tony Stewart now has four top 5 finishes in the last five Sprint Cup races, and he’s only ended up worse than 11th once in the last eight. And that one race was Daytona 2. Over thirty-two career starts here in Thunder Valley, Smoke has averaged a finish of 17.3 with one victory–and that came way back in 2001. We’re not expecting Tony to go to victory lane here on Saturday night but a top 10 isn’t out of the question; Stewart finished 19th in this race one year ago but in his previous two Bristol starts he ended up 6th and 4th. This is more of a momentum pick than anything else, and it’s hard to go against the #14 team right now.
Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – Jamie Mac has been a very reliable Fantasy NASCAR pick here at “The Bullring” as of late, and because of that we’re leaning toward him as our final B Group driver for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. In four of the last five races here at Bristol, McMurray has finished between 8th and 14th, and his average driver rating of 94.2 over that span is good enough for 7th-best in the series (and 2nd-best in the B Group). Momentum-wise, Jamie is coming off of his sixth top 10 of the season at Watkins Glen and his third finish inside that mark over the last six Sprint Cup races overall. If he wants to make this year’s Chase, he’s going to have to have a solid race at Bristol, and we’ve seen that this #1 team is definitely capable of that in the past.
As far as Kyle Larson goes, it’s hard to overlook the amount of speed that car has in it right now. We’re down to 4 starts left with him, though, and we’re pretty confident with the rest of our team, so we’re going to give him a break. He had a terrible 2015 season here at Bristol but finished between 7th and 12th in his other three starts here. Martin Truex, Jr. hasn’t had a top 10 here since 2012. Yes, four years. That’s going to change soon (that #78 team is too good not to) but we’re not going to take the risk this week to find out. There are two tracks that Paul Menard is the safest Fantasy NASCAR pick at are here and Michigan. He’s finished inside the top 15 in seven of the last nine Bristol races. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. never really runs well here but seems to always get the finishes. In the three races here from 2014 to 2015, he never ended up worse than 6th. He’s worth a shot if you’re looking for a sleeper, as is his teammate Trevor Bayne. The #6 Ford has finished inside the top 15 in five of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall, and Trevor came home 5th here in this year’s April race at Thunder Valley. Bayne also ended up 15th in this race one year ago.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Ryan Newman, (3) Tony Stewart, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Martin Truex, Jr., (7) Paul Menard, (8) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (9) Austin Dillon, (10) Kasey Kahne, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Clint Bowyer, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) A.J. Allmendinger, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Bristol 2
Jeff Gordon (7 starts remaining) is going to be in the #88 Chevrolet once again this weekend, so he’s a shoo-in as a C Group pick for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. So far he has been able to keep his fender clean and come away with some decent finishes, and if he can do that here at Bristol, he might be able to crack the top 10. Jeff has three top 10s in his last five starts here in Thunder Valley. We’re probably going to pair Chase Elliott (4 starts remaining) with him, who finished 4th in his first career Bristol start here back in April. However, we still have 7 starts left with Ryan Blaney, and he ended up 11th in that race. The #21 Ford could still make our Yahoo! team for Bristol 2. If you’re looking for another start save option, why not Chris Buescher? That #34 team is running well lately and he has finished 25th and 21st in his two career Sprint Cup starts at this track.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Jeff Gordon, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) David Ragan, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Michael McDowell, the rest
