The Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen is this weekend before the Sprint Cup Series gets its final weekend off before 14 straight races to determine the champion in November. Watkins Glen is a road course like Sonoma–where we raced at back in June–but really the only thing these to venues have in common is that they each have both left and right turns. Certain drivers do better at Watkins Glen, and some do better at Sonoma. Once again strategy is going to be a huge factor as soon as the green flag drops, and we’re bound to see some surprise finishers end up inside the top 10 on Sunday. From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, this is an excellent week to pick some drivers you normally wouldn’t select.
We get to see practice before locking down this weekend, and we will update our rankings after that.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Watkins Glen
Joey Logano (6 starts remaining) – There’s not much to dislike about Joey Logano this weekend: he’s the defending winner of this race here at Watkins Glen (thanks to Kevin Harvick running out of fuel on the last lap) and came home 3rd back at Sonoma back in June. Additionally, this #22 team is just starting to hit their stride and find that speed they became accustomed to in 2015 on a week-to-week basis. Overall, Logano has finished 7th or better in four of the last five races here at The Glen, and he should easily be able to make that five of the last six after this weekend. Don’t forget that the Penske Fords tend to get the best fuel mileage in the Sprint Cup garage, and fuel will more than likely come into play here on Sunday.
Kyle Busch (5 starts remaining) – Kyle Busch has always been solid here at Watkins Glen and that’s not going to change this weekend. Throughout his eleven career starts at this track, Rowdy has just two finishes worse than 9th and he’s been to victory lane twice–most recently in 2013. Last season, Kyle finished 2nd to race-winner Joey Logano, and back at the Sonoma race in June this season the #18 Toyota came home 7th. From an average finish perspective, Watkins Glen is the 4th-best track on the circuit for Kyle Busch (10.5) and he’s probably one of the safest options in the Sprint Cup garage this weekend.
As mentioned before, Kurt Busch could still make our roster this weekend despite his recent slump. He currently has back-to-back top 5 finishes here at Watkins Glen and has finished 9th or better in five of the last seven races here. Kevin Harvick ended up 3rd in last year’s Cheez-It 355, and while he will probably be top 5 good once again, we’d rather not use him at a track that relies so much on strategy (no offense Rodney Childers). Matt Kenseth has three top 10s in the last four races here and finished a career-best 4th last season. He’s an excellent off-sequence pick, as many people don’t really think of him at road courses. Denny Hamlin has a terrible record here at Watkins Glen but it was the same story at Sonoma and he almost won that race. Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski both have solid top 10 potential heading into the race weekend.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Denny Hamlin
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Watkins Glen
A.J. Allmendinger (6 starts remaining) – This guy should be on everyone’s roster this weekend. Watkins Glen is Allmendinger’s best track on the NASCAR circuit and this weekend is probably his last chance to make the Chase this year. A.J. went to victory lane here in 2014 and led 21 laps from the pole in the 2015 event but eventually had battery problems and ended up finishing 24th. That’s his worst finish here in seven career starts, and his next worse is 13th back in 2009. Back at Sonoma, Allmendinger was running right around the top 5 with about 20 laps remaining when his team got a penalty for an uncontrolled tire and he had to start from the rear of the field. Still, A.J. was able to rebound and finish 14th. If his pit crew can avoid making any mistakes here at Watkins Glen on Sunday, the #47 Chevrolet should definitely be a contender.
Carl Edwards (5 starts remaining) – Cousin Carl is going to be our fallback option this weekend just in case the rest of our B Group picks look absolutely terrible. He’s also making our roster for potential qualifying bonus points, as this #19 Toyota sat on the pole back at Sonoma (and ended up finishing 4th). Believe it or not, Watkins Glen is (statistically) Edwards’ best track on the Sprint Cup circuit; in eleven career starts here at The Glen, Carl has an average finish of 8.4 with five top 5s (45.5%) and eight top 10s (72.7%). That average finish is also the best in the series, unless you count Kyle Larson’s 8.0 average finish over his two career starts here. Edwards has never been to victory lane at this track, but that’s bound to change eventually–and very well could this weekend.
Tony Stewart (6 starts remaining) – Smoke is a five-time winner here at Watkins Glen and is coming off of that awesome win at Sonoma back in June…what’s not to like!? Well, actually there’s one thing: the fact that he hasn’t finished better than 19th here since 2010. However, that should change this weekend. This #14 crew is a complete different team than they were last season, and with Stewart’s 5th-place finish at Pocono, he now has six finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races. That old adage of Tony Stewart being at his best during the summer is coming true once again, and we’re definitely hanging on for the ride. By the way, in case you forgot, in this race last season, Smoke had a solid top 5 car before rear gear issues forced him out of the race and he finished dead last.
Kyle Larson (4 starts remaining) – Kyle Larson has had quite an up and down season, and most of that can be attributed to his crew chief (at least in our opinion). One thing that has been pretty consistent, however, is Larson running up front at his best tracks, and Watkins Glen is on that short list. In two career Cup starts here at The Glen, Kyle has posted finishes of 4th and 12th, and in the Sonoma race back in June he came home 12th as well. It’s not ideal to use a Larson start this weekend–especially considering we’re already down to 4–but it’s really starting to look like it’s best to use him at the tracks that he has historically run well at. Larson may be replaced by a different B Group driver before lockdown this weekend, but as of now he’s on our Yahoo! roster for Watkins Glen.
It’s pretty slim pickings in the B Group this weekend, as there is a wide gap from the top drivers in this group to the middle tier. Martin Truex, Jr. has emerged as a pretty good road course racer and he finished a career-best 3rd here at The Glen back in 2013. However, we’re down to 4 starts remaining with Truex and would rather keep those for other race tracks. Ryan Newman is a decently solid pick here at The Glen, with five finishes of 16th or better in the last six races. He also ended up 8th at Sonoma back in June, so keep an eye on “The Rocketman” this weekend. Kasey Kahne finished 12th here in 2014 and ended up 9th back at Sonoma but, as usual, you never really know which Kasey is going to show up at the track. If you’re looking for a start save option, Greg Biffle is a nice pick. He has finished 16th or better in each of the last four races here at The Glen, which is pretty good considering how down Roush-Fenway Racing has been over the last couple of years. Clint Bowyer is a great start save option as well–as long as his equipment doesn’t fail like it did at Sonoma. And Danica Patrick has finished between 17th and 21st in each of her three Cup starts here if you want a really deep sleeper.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Tony Stewart, (3) A.J. Allmendinger, (4) Martin Truex, Jr. (5) Kyle Larson, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) Austin Dillon, (10) Greg Biffle, (11) Clint Bowyer, (12) Danica Patrick, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Trevor Bayne, (16) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Watkins Glen
Including this weekend’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen, there’s 15 races remaining in the 2016 Sprint Cup season. There’s one more restrictor plate race that we have to deal with, so that number goes down to 14. We can start save more easily at the short tracks on the schedule, and there’s 4 of those left. So depending on your number of starts left with Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, you can either go all in with those guys or try to get lucky with someone else in the C Group. In all honesty, there’s nothing special about any of the drivers in this group at Watkins Glen–including Elliott and Blaney. As of this post, nothing is official as far as Dale Earnhardt, Jr. goes, so it’s unclear whether we will get a “savior” driver in that #88 Chevrolet. David Ragan is the best start save option this week, and we’re going to roll with him alongside Ryan Blaney this weekend (although that’s subject to change before lockdown). In case you were wondering, we have 5 Chase Elliott starts left and 7 Ryan Blaney starts.
EDIT: Jeff Gordon is in the #88 Chevrolet again this weekend and will be on our roster alongside Michael McDowell.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Jeff Gordon, (4) David Ragan, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Chris Buescher, (8) Regan Smith, (9) Boris Said, the rest
Couple of early thoughts; I will be keeping an eye on Biffle and Mears. If they look strong in practice I may roster one of them. Biffle has some good numbers and Kahne is consistant.
In C, have to watch Buescher some. He will be getting some additional support from Roush and Ford likely. He has not been a shining star on road races but he is hot right now.
Kurt Busch is a consistant finisher and would probably be a safe start if you are protecting a league position.
Just my thoughts..
sorry meant Biffle has good numbers and Casey is consistent.
Absolutely. My problem with Biffle is that he always looks like garbage in practice and usually qualifying. They have used fuel gambles more than a few times this season to get track position as well, which I don’t particularly like because of how high of a probability of that not working out has. However, it seems to work out for them more than it doesn’t….
Just wondering if there’s going to be final rankings before the race starts?
Hi Dan, Sorry about that. I was out most of the weekend and wasn’t able to get the normal posts up. Regular posting will continue at Bristol. Thanks!