We’re back at “The Tricky Triangle,” Pocono Raceway this week for the second time in two months. If you remember back to last month’s race here, Chase Elliott led for most of the way but eventually gave up the lead to Kurt Busch, who was able to hold off Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and grab the win to lock himself into the Chase. What’s interesting is that Matt Kenseth was the highest finishing Toyota in that race, so we’ll have to see whether or not the Gibbs camp can continue their dominance from Indianapolis this weekend in Pocono. Kenseth won this event last year (thanks in part to fuel mileage) but that is the only Pocono race in the last seven that a Chevrolet hasn’t gone to victory lane.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Pocono 2
Brad Keselowski (7 starts remaining) – We’re going with the Penske power this weekend at Pocono over the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, and we’ll explain why later in this article before our Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings. For now, let’s talk about Brad Keselowski. Since winning back-to-back races at Daytona and Kentucky, BK has now posted two straight finishes outside of the top 10, but he should be able to turn that streak around this weekend at Pocono. The #2 Ford sat on the pole here back in June and ended up finishing 3rd. Additionally, in this race one year ago, Keselowski came home 2nd, and over the last ten events at “The Tricky Triangle,” he has ended up 6th or better six times. Another reason we like Brad this weekend? Him and Paul Wolfe are two of the best at playing the strategy game, and it’s not uncommon for that to come up here at Pocono. Don’t forget that Keselowski tends to get the best fuel mileage in the Sprint Cup garage, too.
Joey Logano (7 starts remaining) – This #22 team is at the top of their game right now and primed for a great race here at Pocono on Sunday. Logano was in contention to win at The Brickyard last weekend before falling back late, and even so that still makes it six finishes of 7th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races. Here at Pocono, Joey currently has three top 5s in the last four races with the only exception being this event one year ago. However, if you remember back to that race, Logano led 97 of the 160 laps but ran out of fuel late and ended up finishing 20th. The #22 Ford should be one of the cars to beat this weekend as well, and with 7 starts still remaining, we have no problem putting him on our roster.
It’s hard to go against Kyle Busch after that dominating race at Indianapolis, but we’re down to 5 starts left with him now and think it’d be better to try and conserve those for the Chase. Rowdy also hasn’t had a top 5 here since 2011. Matt Kenseth still might make our roster and should be a top 5 threat. He won this race last year and has finished 7th or better in the last three Pocono races. Denny Hamlin is too untrustworthy for us, although he could easily run top 5. Kevin Harvick is Kevin Harvick and will be a contender, but we’re trying to save his starts for the Chase as well. Kurt Busch is really good at Pocono and might make our roster as well, but that #41 team is in a small slump right now. This would be the place to turn it around. Speaking of slumps, Jimmie Johnson finally got a good finish at Indianapolis, and has finished 6th or better in seven of the last eleven Pocono races.
EDIT: We’re replacing Brad Keselowski with Kurt Busch, just in case he has any lingering effects from his crash at Watkins Glen.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Joey Logano, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Kurt Busch, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Kyle Busch, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Denny Hamlin
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Pocono 2
Tony Stewart (7 starts remaining) – Even with the speeding penalty and everything at Indianapolis, Tony Stewart was able to salvage a decent finish and that shows just how well this team is clicking right now. Over the last six Sprint Cup races, no driver has a better average finish than Smoke (8.7), and now he sets his eyes on Pocono–a track where he’s been to victory lane twice but hasn’t had a top 5 finish since 2013. However, Tony ended up 9th in this race one year ago, and had a shot at a potential top 10 here last month but wrecked mid-race and ended up finishing 34th. We have Tony Stewart right around 10th-12th heading into the race weekend but if they can hit on the setup this weekend, he just might be able to come away with a top 5 finish.
Kasey Kahne (7 starts remaining) – Let’s try this again, Kasey Kahne. The #5 Chevrolet was mediocre all day at Indianapolis last weekend but that’s just the risk you take when you start Kasey on your Fantasy NASCAR team. This week have a little more hope, simply because he has performed well here at Pocono Raceway over the last few years, and (as mentioned before) Chevrolet has been great here as of late. In the June race here this season, Kahne came home with a nice 6th-place finish and he has finished 13th or better in four of the last six events here at “The Tricky Triangle.” That includes his win here back in 2013. He’s nowhere near a lock pick this weekend but Kasey Kahne has definite top 10 potential if he can qualify up front.
Kyle Larson (4 starts remaining) – We’re running low on Kyle Larson starts, but the guy is money here at Pocono and it’s hard to pass up that kind of consistency. In five career starts here at “The Tricky Triangle,” Larson has never finished worse than 12th and he has led at least five laps in three of those five events. Another aspect to like about Larson this weekend is his top 5 run last weekend at Indianapolis. We’re not saying that the two tracks are super similar, but they’re both very big and very flat, so there’s some kind of connection there. One final reason to like Larson this weekend? Pocono is a track that requires a lot of driver skill, so it can be more up to Kyle on how the #42 Chevrolet performs on Sunday as opposed to his less-than-stellar crew chief.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – It’s been a while since we put Stenhouse on our Yahoo! roster but he’s probably getting a spot this weekend. He wound up 12th at Indianapolis last weekend and that makes it three races inside that mark over the last four. Here at Pocono, Ricky has had quite a few rough experiences (three finishes outside of the top 30 in seven career starts), but he posted a career-best finish of 15th here last month and we think that team may be able to improve a little bit on that this weekend. It’s going to be a risky play if we do end up starting Stenhouse on Sunday, but sometimes it’s worth taking a gamble–especially at a race track like Pocono where strategy is probably going to come into play.
It’s hard to leave Martin Truex, Jr. off this list because of the potential for him to win here. Remember, he won the June 2015 race here. However, we’re down to 4 starts, and that team still isn’t quite finishing like they should. If you have 5 or more starts left, you should probably roster him. As far as Carl Edwards, we’re not sure what to expect. He had a great car at Indianapolis (kind of surprising), and should have speed this weekend, but he hasn’t had a top 5 here since 2010. Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman both have top 10 potential this weekend. Dillon is usually good for a top 15 finish at “The Tricky Triangle” and Newman has ended up 12th or better in ten of the last twelve races here.
EDIT: We’re replacing Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. with Carl Edwards.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Tony Stewart, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Austin Dillon, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (10) Greg Biffle, (11) Clint Bowyer, (12) Trevor Bayne, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Danica Patrick, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Pocono 2
We’re really excited to see what Jeff Gordon can do in this #88 Chevrolet. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has posted six top 5 finishes in the last seven Pocono races, and Gordon hasn’t been too shabby over that span either with five finishes of 8th or better in those seven events. Once again, from a strategy perspective and looking at the number of starts we have left, Jeff Gordon is a must in the C Group. We’re going to paid Chase Elliott with him, although we have no plans of starting Chase. He almost won here at Pocono last month, finishing 4th in his first Cup start at “The Tricky Triangle.” There’s no reason to look at any other start save options this weekend, but if you really want to, Chris Buescher and Regan Smith are probably your two best options. By the way, Buescher is coming off of his first top 15 of the season last week at Indianapolis.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Jeff Gordon, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) David Ragan, (6) Regan Smith, (7) Landon Cassill, (8) Michael McDowell, (9) Michael Annett, the rest
Hey Jordan, are we at all concerned about Harvick not having his crew chief this week? Also were the Gibbs cars down on speed before that last Pocono race or was that week just an anomaly? Feel like I should have Kyle on my roster this week.
Hey Derrick,
I actually think this might benefit Harvick a little bit. Childers is a great crew chief but he’s not great at in-race strategy. That #4 car will be set up for speed this weekend, so it’ll be interesting to see how the backup crew chief calls the race.
As far as the Gibbs cars at the last Pocono race, Kyle Busch was right in the middle of that month-long slump, so he gets a pass. The thing about Pocono is that it takes a whole lot of skill in addition to the speed to run well. We know the Gibbs cars have speed, but Rowdy hasn’t quite figured this place out yet. Just four top 5s in 23 career starts. He could very well go out and win on Sunday, though. All Gibbs cars should all be top 10 good with top 5 potential this weekend, but for some reason Chevy has a stranglehold on this place as far as wins.