Loudon is a short, flat, 1-mile race track, and it’s not uncommon for the races here to come down to fuel mileage. We don’t know what it is with the summer but it seems like this middle part of the Sprint Cup schedule sees more fuel mileage races than the other parts. Anyway, track position is going to be an important factor in the New Hampshire 301 on Sunday, but it’s noteworthy to consider that only one of the last seven races here have been won from a top 5 starting spot. As usual, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas look great this weekend and should all be challenging for the win on Sunday.
Our team got a little lucky last weekend by sticking with Brad Keselowski at Kentucky. We scored 304 total points in race #18 and we are now sitting in the 66th percentile at the halfway point of the season. That might not seem that good, but don’t forget that this is a marathon, not a sprint. We’re happy with where we are at this point in time.
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Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Loudon
We honestly expected more out of our two A Group drivers this weekend. We rostered Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick for this week’s race at Loudon, and while both have solid top 10 cars with top 5 potential, we were hoping to have the potential race dominator on our roster. That just isn’t the case. On the speed charts both the #2 Ford and the #4 Chevrolet were pretty even throughout the two practice sessions on Saturday, but Keselowski ran about 2/3rds the amount of laps as Harvick, and that tells us that he might be struggling with his race car this weekend. Because of that, we’re probably going to start Kevin Harvick here on Sunday, in part because he has had one of the best cars here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway over the last two years. The #4 Chevrolet also had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and, as long as this race doesn’t come down to fuel mileage, should be a contender for the win. Harvick qualified 8th for Sunday’s race while Keselowski qualified 9th.
Pole sitter Jimmie Johnson might be an attractive option due to his starting spot, but we’re not convinced that this #48 team is back to “normal.” There’s a big difference between putting one fast lap down here at Loudon and having a good car over the course of a run. Kyle Busch is on the outside pole for this weekend’s race and he should be one of the drivers that has a chance to lead the most laps on Sunday. He will be a contender to win. Denny Hamlin looks fast and is a two-time winner at this track, but his unreliability this season is a concern. Joey Logano mentioned on Saturday that he’s a top 5 car at best this weekend, which probably means top 10–which is where he and Kurt Busch both have the ability to finish.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Matt Kenseth, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Loudon
Despite his 13th-place starting spot, Carl Edwards has one of the best cars in the field this weekend and we honestly believe that the #19 Toyota will be a legitimate contender for the win on Sunday. The garage was pointing toward Carl as the car to beat during Saturday morning’s practice session, and the #19 team only solidified that distinction by having a great Happy Hour practice as well. Edwards should be at least a top 5 threat here on Sunday, which is where he finished in the fall race here at Loudon last year–his first top 5 here since the 2008 year. Just something about those Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas at this track…
Now we have to choose our second B Group driver and that is between Ryan Newman, Kyle Larson, and Greg Biffle. They start 25th, 17th, and 28th, respectively. We would love to get a Greg Biffle start here, and by the end of the weekend we think he could surprise some people and finish top 15, but that’s just way too risky. Ryan Newman is another driver that should finish way better than where he starts, but the speed just wasn’t there on Saturday for us to start him. He’s a pretty safe option here at Loudon, but we’re going to go for maximum points with what we got so we’re going to start Kyle Larson and Carl Edwards this weekend. Larson didn’t have blazing speed during Saturday’s practice sessions but he was consistent, ranking 10th and 11th on the speed charts (and 10th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour).
Looking at the other B Group drivers, we don’t have Martin Truex, Jr. on our roster, but we wouldn’t start him this weekend even if we did. Yeah, he starts up front, but that #78 team did nothing to show that speed in race trim on Saturday. The fact that Truex didn’t make a long run in Happy Hour is concerning. We have him pegged as an 8th to 12th-place car on Sunday and that’s not worth the start, in our opinion. Kasey Kahne has shown pretty good speed this weekend and should come home with a top 15 finish. If you have him, start him. Tony Stewart kind of disappointed on Saturday, as did Austin Dillon. We have both of their ceilings around 15th. The latter did have the 9th-best lap in Happy Hour, though. Jamie McMurray is another top 15 threat, but he starts kind of far back in 19th. He’s not top 10 worthy but definitely mid-teens. Other than that, we don’t see any other B Group driver as a viable option on Sunday. A.J. Allmendinger is an excellent sleeper pick but probably the riskiest driver in the field. He starts 10th and was 14th-fastest in Happy Hour.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr. (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Kasey Kahne, (5) Tony Stewart, (6) Jamie McMurray, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) A.J. Allmendinger, (10) Greg Biffle, (11) Paul Menard, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (13) Casey Mears, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Danica Patrick
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Loudon
Our original start save pick this weekend was David Ragan, and we still stand behind that pick. However, with the news breaking that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. wasn’t going to race this weekend’s New Hampshire 301, we had to jump on that opportunity. Alex Bowman will take over in the #88 Chevrolet on Sunday, and he’s going to be our starter for week #19 as well. We’re not expecting a great run out of him this weekend, but as long as Bowman can finish the race, we will be happy. He qualified 20th for this weekend’s race, and while Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney both have top 10 potential here at Loudon, we just can’t pass up this opportunity to save their starts. If you have David Ragan on your roster along with Elliott or Blaney, we would still recommend starting Ragan simply because that team is probably at their best on the shorter tracks and he starts 23rd this weekend. Also, on a side note, Matt DiBenedetto qualified 16th this weekend and would be another good start save option. His only good run this season came at another short track, Bristol, where he finished inside the top 10. We don’t see that happening again but anything can happen…
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) David Ragan, (5) Matt DiBenedetto, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Michael McDowell, (8) Regan Smith, (9) Brian Scott, the rest
Just wondering what we missed on arguably the most dominant(78)car today? Seems like he’d have been top 5 if that shifter didn’t break.
Dan,
Yeah, I’m not sure what happened there. Not many people thought Truex was going to have the best car at Loudon–myself included. I don’t even think Truex thought he had that great of a car.