[This post has been updated at 5:45 pm on 07/14/16 after news broke that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won’t be racing this weekend.]
The second half of the 2016 Sprint Cup season kicks off this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, although we typically refer to this race as “Loudon.” Just letting you know so there’s no confusion moving forward. This is a short 1-mile race track with very little banking. The corners have progressive banking between 2- and 7-degrees but there’s just one degree of banking on the straightaways. Since this is a short track, pit crews are going to be very important on Sunday, as one mistake can ruin a team’s day and put the car multiple laps down. We’ve also seen the races here come down to fuel mileage before, so keep that in mind.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Loudon
Brad Keselowski (7 starts remaining) – We lucked out last week by sticking to our guns and keeping Brad Keselowski on our roster at Kentucky, and we actually started him, too. This weekend, though, there’s no doubt that the Blue Deuce is going to be on our Yahoo! team. Not only is this team on absolute fire right now–five top 5s in the last six races, including two wins–but Keselowski has also been the best finisher here at Loudon over the last couple of years, especially in the summer races; over the last two July events at this track, Brad has finished 2nd and 1st and led a total of 238 laps. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway since the 2011 season and that shouldn’t change on Sunday either. His career average finish of 10.4 here is 2nd-best among all active drivers, right behind Denny Hamlin’s 10.3. It would surprise us one bit if this #2 team picked up their third win in a row this weekend, and that would be Keselowski’s second career victory at this track.
Kevin Harvick (6 starts remaining) – There’s quite a few great options in the A Group this weekend, but we’re going to go with the driver that has had a dominant car here at Loudon lately. In this race one year ago, Harvick led 59 laps en route to a 3rd-place finish, and that followed up another 3rd-place finish in the 2014 fall race here, an event where the #4 Chevrolet led for over one-third of the race. In last year’s fall event, Harvick led a race-high 216 laps but ended up finishing 21st thanks to running out of fuel. As we saw at Kentucky last weekend, this #4 team isn’t the greatest at playing the fuel mileage game, so as long as this weekend’s New Hampshire 301 doesn’t come down to that, the #4 Chevrolet should be up front. Harvick has just one victory here at Loudon and that was way back in 2006.
As far as the other A Group drivers go, the Gibbs cars should all be solid on Sunday. Kyle Busch has four finishes of 1st or 2nd in the last four Loudon races, but that #18 team hasn’t posted a top 5 since early May. Matt Kenseth has been great at Loudon since joining JGR, posting two wins and five top 10s over the last six races. Denny Hamlin is a two-time winner here and should be solidly inside the top 10 on Sunday. Like Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson is in the middle of a drought, to the tune of zero top 10s since April. He has finished 7th or better in five of the last eight Loudon races, though. Kurt Busch finished 10th in this race one year ago but that’s one of only two top 10s in the his last eleven starts here. You can give him a break this weekend. Joey Logano has three straight top 5s at this track.
IMPORTANT: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. isn’t racing this week due to concussion symptoms. Don’t pick him.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Brad Keselowski, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Matt Kenseth, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Kurt Busch, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Loudon
Carl Edwards (7 starts remaining) – As mentioned before, the entire Joe Gibbs Racing fleet should be solid here at Loudon this weekend. Edwards has sat on the pole for the last two races at this track and led 19 laps in each of those events (hey, gotta love consistency) while ending up 7th and 5th when the checkered flag flew. He only had a couple of really good runs here before moving over to JGR, but, like Kenseth, Carl Edwards’ Loudon fantasy value really increased once that move occurred. This #19 team is coming off of that 2nd-place finish at Kentucky last Saturday night and Edwards has finished 8th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races. Unless you’re running low on starts with him (4 or less), we think you have to put Carl on your Yahoo! team this weekend.
Ryan Newman (6 starts remaining) – “The Rocketman” is a consistent performer at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and is coming off of his first top 5 finish of the season at Kentucky last Saturday night. Newman has also now finished 12th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races, with the only exception being Daytona. As far as his record here at Loudon, Ryan owns a career average finish of 13.5 in twenty-eight career starts here and has visited victory lane three times (the most recent win being in 2011). He finished 11th and 10th in the two races here last season and that’s exactly what we’re expecting out of Newman this time around as well–a solid top 12 run. He has finished 11th or better in nine of the last thirteen races ran here at Loudon.
Kyle Larson (5 starts remaining) – This #42 Chevrolet has had a bunch of speed in it lately and it’s only a matter of time before the old “when is Kyle Larson going to win?” question starts popping back up. Could it be this weekend? Larson came home 3rd in his first ever Cup start here at Loudon back in 2014, and then he followed that up with a runner-up finish in the fall. He ended up 31st and 17th in the two races here last season, but we’ll give him a pass for those considering the 2015 year was full of bad luck and misfortunes for this #42 team. As long as Larson and his team can put a whole race together this Sunday–which is nowhere near a guarantee–he should be a legitimate top 10 threat (or better) in the New Hampshire 301 this weekend.
Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – Jamie McMurray as our fourth B Group driver is taking the safer route this weekend, but there are plenty of other options available if you don’t want to use Jamie Mac–of which we will talk about below. Looking at McMurray, though, his career average finish of 20.5 here at Loudon isn’t anything impressive, but over the last six races at this track, he has put up two top 5 finishes and only one result worse than 16th. Jamie is one driver that we may replace before the final lockdown on Friday morning, but as of now he is on our roster for Loudon.
EDIT: We’re switching Jamie McMurray for Greg Biffle.
Martin Truex, Jr. is a very solid racer here at Loudon but we’re down to 4 starts left with him and he hasn’t had a top 5 here since 2008. We’d really only like to use him when he can potentially win or at least finish top 5 from here on our. Austin Dillon is another potential top 10 threat out of the B Group. He finished 8th in this race last season and has ran pretty well on the shorter tracks this season. One guy you may not think about this week is Greg Biffle. He now has an average finish of 14.7 over the last six Sprint Cup races overall, and over the last six races here at Loudon his average finish is 13.3. His ceiling is around the top 15 this week, but if you’re looking for a start save option, he’s not a terrible choice. We expect Tony Stewart to have solid top 15 potential this weekend, and you have to keep an eye out for A.J. Allmendinger as a sleeper–he’s finished 13th in two of the last three Loudon races and don’t forget that he almost won at Martinsville earlier this year, another short track.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Austin Dillon, (6) Tony Stewart, (7) Jamie McMurray, (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Greg Biffle, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Loudon
In order to play the start save game with the C Group in Yahoo! this week, you’re going to need some luck, like back at Bristol when Matt DiBenetto finished 6th. The good news is that short tracks are an excellent time to start save, but it’s really one of those hope and pray situations for whatever driver you decide to go with. Our strategy is usually to put either Ryan Blaney or Chase Elliott on our roster and pair them with one of the other C Group drivers. This weekend, we’re going to go with Ryan Blaney (7 starts remaining), who finished 23rd in his first start here at Loudon last season. And to pair with him, we’re going with David Ragan (8 starts remaining), who ran 18th in this event one year ago, albeit in the #55 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing. However, looking at the shorter, flatter tracks we’ve ran at this season, Ragan came home 24th at Phoenix, 21st at Martinsville, 23rd at Richmond, and 17th at Dover. Definitely not stellar results, but decent for a guy like Ragan. He also has four finishes of 23rd or better in the last four Sprint Cup races after that 22nd-place finish at Kentucky last Saturday night.
EDIT: Alex Bowman will be driving Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s #88 Chevrolet this weekend. His best finish here is 28th, but with that kind of equipment it’s hard to keep a start save option like that off of our team. We are replacing David Ragan with Alex Bowman.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) David Ragan, (4) Alex Bowman, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) Chris Buescher, (7) Brian Scott, (8) Regan Smith, (9) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
