Kentucky Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Rankings and Strategy Picks

For the third week in a row, it’s hard to guarantee what we’re going to see on race day. This weekend the Sprint Cup Series travels to Kentucky Speedway for the Quaker State 400. We visit this track once a year but have only been doing so since 2011–giving us just give years of race data. On top of that, Kentucky was totally re-paved and re-configured since the last time we were here, and it’s almost an entirely different race track. Of the tracks the Cup teams have ran at so far this year, we think Kansas is the closest to this “new” Kentucky.

There’s one practice scheduled for Thursday and then two on Friday followed by qualifying. The Quaker State 400 is on Saturday night. We will update these rankings on Thursday evening. [They have been updated.]

Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Kentucky

Kyle Busch (6 starts remaining) – Let’s be honest, if there’s one driver that can come into a “brand new” race track and win the first race, it’s Kyle Busch. And just in case we’re wrong and this track isn’t drastically different after the re-pave and re-configuration, Kyle Busch’s Sprint Cup record at Kentucky Speedway speaks for itself: in the five races ran here, Rowdy collected two wins, never finished worse than 10th, and had an average finish of 3.8. Yeah, pretty good in our book. Looking back at the Kansas race in early May, the #18 Toyota led 69 of the 267 laps that day en route to victory lane, and Kyle Busch has been one of the best drivers on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season with an average finish of 8.4 (see full chart here). After posting four straight finishes of 30th or worse, Kyle Busch now has back-to-back top 10s after his 7th-place run at Sonoma and 2nd-place finish at Daytona–meaning this team is starting to build back some momentum.

Brad Keselowski (8 starts remaining) – There’s not many safer pick thans Brad Keselowski this weekend. He’s coming off of a dominating win at Daytona last weekend and now has five finishes of 6th or better in the last six Sprint Cup races. The only exception during that span was Keselowski’s 15th-place finish at Sonoma, and that wasn’t all that surprising because he has historically struggled there his whole career. In the Kansas race earlier this year, BK came home 10th after starting 5th and leading three laps. If we’re looking at past Kentucky races, Brad also has two wins like Kyle Busch and has led 408 total laps in the five races ran here. Both Penske teams are finally running where they should be and we expect both Keselowski and teammate Joey Logano to contend here on Saturday night.

EDIT AFTER PRACTICE: Kyle Busch looks very fast this weekend so we’re sticking with him, and although Keselowski wasn’t as fast as we would have liked, we’re still going to stick with the Blue Deuce for Kentucky. Denny Hamlin was 4th-fastest on Thursday but we think that was a fools gold lap.

Kevin Harvick is always a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick on these intermediate race tracks, but he hasn’t won on one this year (surprisingly). He finished 2nd at Kansas. His teammate, Kurt Busch, ended up 3rd in that Kansas race and has been the most reliable top 10 finisher this season–unless Joey Logano dumps him on the last lap. One A Group driver that is definitely worth considering–and still may make our roster–is Matt Kenseth. He’s never finished worse than 7th at Kentucky and won here in 2013. He wound up 4th in the Kansas race earlier this year.

Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Matt Kenseth, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (9) Denny Hamlin

Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Kentucky

Carl Edwards (7 starts remaining) – Our plan heading into the weekend is to bring out the big guns, and in the B Group that starts with Carl Edwards. Last year, in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing, Cousin Carl finished 4th in the Kentucky race (after starting 20th), which is one of two top 5 finishes he has in his five starts here. This season on the 1.5-mile race tracks, the #19 Toyota hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been terrible either. Edwards has an 11.8 average finish of this track type in 2016, and that includes his 11th-place run at Kansas (see full chart here). We’re glad to have 7 starts left with Carl Edwards, but it’s almost time to start using them. If we think he can win Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 after practice on Thursday, he’s going to make our final roster.

Martin Truex, Jr. (5 starts remaining) – It’s been hard to trust Martin Truex, Jr. this season but he owns an average finish of 7.8 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season (see full chart here) and probably had the best car at Kansas, where he led 172 of the 267 laps but finished 14th thanks to his pit crew. Here at Kentucky, Truex hasn’t had any great runs, but he did post top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013 while still with Michael Waltrip Racing. As we’ve seen at many tracks this year, the alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing should boost Truex’s performance here at Kentucky on Saturday night, but he’s nowhere near a lock. Martin could be a late scratch from our roster. Don’t forget that this #78 team has six finishes outside of the top 10 in the last nine Sprint Cup races overall.

Kyle Larson (5 starts remaining) – If anyone is happy that Kentucky was re-paved and re-configured, it has to be Kyle Larson. In his two career Sprint Cup starts at this track, he has finished 40th and 35th. However, Kyle started 6th and 1st in those two races, so it’s not like he’s just terrible here. Looking back at the Kansas race, the #42 Chevrolet was fast in that race but Larson got caught up in a wreck and ended up finishing 35th. He looked to have top 10 potential before that. The good finishes are coming for this team, and that’s the time to use Larson as he is a streaky driver; Kyle hasn’t finished worse than 13th in the last six Sprint Cup races overall and owns the 3rd-best average finish (7.8) over that span, right behind Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.

Austin Dillon (5 starts remaining) – As expected, Austin Dillon came home with a solid top 10 finish at Daytona last weekend, and that gives this #3 team two results inside that mark over the last three Sprint Cup races–the other being Michigan. And that’s exactly what this team needs: good runs to try and build some momentum and confidence. Dillon’s performance has really dropped off from where it was back in March and April, but these intermediate race tracks have been his strength this season and that should show once again on Saturday night. Austin came home 6th in this year’s Kansas race.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a nice sleeper option and start save pick this weekend. That #17 team has an average finish of 13.2 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and Ricky came home 11th in the Kentucky race last season. Another driver to look at is Stenhouse’s Roush-Fenway teammate Trevor Bayne. He came home 13th here at Kentucky last season, and while that doesn’t really matter, that #6 team has been running really well lately–seven finishes of 17th or better in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Also another sleeper would be A.J. Allmendinger, who finished 8th at Kentucky and has an average finish of 17.4 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this year.

EDIT AFTER PRACTICE: Carl Edwards ran a bunch of laps in Practice #1 and that’s usually not a good sign for the competition. He’s a lock. Truex also put up a good lap on Thursday so he is making our roster, as is Austin Dillon. Kyle Larson remains the next best option but we’re switching him out for Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.–a pure strategy move as we are down to 5 starts with Larson and have 7 left with Stenhouse. 

Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Austin Dillon, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Tony Stewart, (9) Paul Menard, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Jamie McMurray, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Clint Bowyer, (16) Danica Patrick, (17) Casey Mears

Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Kentucky

Our strategy with these C Group drivers this season has been to save Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney for the bigger intermediate race tracks and try and fill in the gaps at the other venues with some other picks. Sometimes this works out (David Ragan finishing 17th at Dover) and sometimes it doesn’t (Landon Cassill winding up 31st at Daytona last week) but that’s just how it is. We’re sticking to this strategy this weekend and will have Elliott and Blaney as our two C Group drivers barring some kind of crazy practice session on Thursday. Back at the Kansas race, both of these rookies finished inside the top 10, and Chase has an average finish of 13.6 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season (see full chart here). We don’t see any other C Group driver finishing inside the top 20 here on Saturday night unless the race turns into a wreck-fest.

EDIT AFTER PRACTICE: We’re switching Ryan Blaney to Ty Dillon as a start save option.

Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Brian Scott, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Regan Smith, (7) David Ragan, (8) Landon Cassill, (9) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest

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