We go from a part strategy, part luck race at Sonoma last weekend to one that mostly comes down to luck at Daytona. The Coke Zero 400 is on Saturday night this weekend, and with this race we typically see some fireworks–both during the event and afterward. This is the third restrictor plate race of the season and the second points-paying race at Daytona. As you probably remember, Denny Hamlin barely edged out Martin Truex, Jr. to take home the trophy back here in February. As far as the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto game, this is another excellent week to save starts and pick drivers that are somewhat “out of the box.” We recommend making your picks and just sticking with them, as any driver can finish up front in these types of races.
Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Daytona 2
Denny Hamlin (9 starts remaining) – Our plan heading into the Coke Zero 400 race weekend is to start Denny Hamlin no matter what. He’s the most recent race winner here at Daytona and he has had very strong race cars in both restrictor plate races ran in 2016. And not only that, but Hamlin has been the best driver here at Daytona for the last three years or so–hands down. Over the last five points-paying races at this track, Denny hasn’t finished worse than 6th, and his average result over that span is 3.2. His good run luck is going to run out sometime, but you might as well play the hot hand while you can. Hamlin will also be looking to rebound in a big way after that disappointing finish at Sonoma last week.
Matt Kenseth (8 starts remaining) – As we mentioned before, our plan is to 100% start Denny Hamlin on Saturday night. Therefore, we’d like to get some qualifying points out of our second A Group pick if at all possible. Matt Kenseth qualified 2nd for this year’s Daytona 500 and 4th for the race back at Talladega. Additionally, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have been the absolute strongest race cars on the plate tracks in 2016, and that isn’t going to change this weekend. Matt might get swapped out for a different driver before the final lockdown on Thursday evening, but as of now we have him on our Daytona 2 team.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is going to be the most popular driver pick this weekend in the A Group, but he hasn’t been very good on the restrictor plate tracks this season (wrecked in each). We’re sitting in the 55th percentile of Yahoo! players after Sonoma, so we need to do something different this weekend, and that means avoiding Junior. Kyle Busch finished 3rd in this year’s Daytona 500 and 2nd at Talladega. He should be a top 5 contender once again on Saturday night but we’re already down to six Rowdy starts left. Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick should be solid on Saturday night, and don’t count out Joey Logano now that this team is starting to get on a roll.
Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Denny Hamlin, (2) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Kurt Busch, (5) Kevin Harvick, (6) Joey Logano, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Brad Keselowski
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Daytona 2
Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – Jamie Mac is a two-time winner at Daytona International Speedway, with his most recent victory coming in the 2010 Daytona 500. He’s nowhere near a consistent performer at this track, but he has shown flashes of being very good at times. Looking at the two plate races the Sprint Cup Series has ran thus far in 2016, McMurray has the 6th-best average finish (10.5) and 8th-best average driver rating (93.4). Jamie’s worst finish this season has been 26th, and he’s typically a lock for at least a teen finish. He’s one of the safer options in the B Group this weekend, and for that reason we’re putting him on our team for Daytona 2.
Kasey Kahne (7 starts remaining) – As is the case with him at most race tracks, Kasey Kahne usually runs well here at Daytona but only gets a good finish about half of the time. There’s a couple of things we like about Kahne this weekend, though, and that’s why he’s making our roster. First is how this team performed in June: over the three Sprint Cup races in that month, the #5 Chevrolet came home 6th at Pocono, 13th at Michigan, and 9th at Sonoma. It’s not very common that Kahne has that good of results over a three-race span, so hopefully that momentum rolls into Daytona. Additionally, Kasey has had the 9th-best average driver rating (83.7) of all Sprint Cup drivers over the last five Daytona races, and he came home 13th in this year’s Daytona 500. Yes he’s a risky pick, but who isn’t at Daytona, really?
Austin Dillon (5 starts remaining) – We’re already down to 5 starts remaining with Austin Dillon this season but his record here is too good to ignore. Consistency-wise, he’s right up there with the best of them at this track. Since taking over the #3 Chevrolet, Austin has never finished worse than 14th in a points-paying race at Daytona, and four of his five starts in that car have ended with top 10 results. After coming home 9th in this season’s Daytona 500, Austin finished 3rd at Talladega back in May. If you have six or more starts left with Austin Dillon, we think you have to put him on your roster this weekend. He’s just that good here.
Aric Almirola (9 starts remaining) – This #43 team is still searching for their first top 10 finish of the 2016 Sprint Cup season, and it could very well come here on Saturday night. Believe it or not, Almirola is a pretty decent restrictor plate driver. He came home 12th in this season’s Daytona 500, and actually won the 2014 Coke Zero 400. Overall he has three top 15 finishes in the last four Daytona races. At Talladega, Aric has had similar consistency, with three results of 16th or better in the last five races. We may very well change our mind with this pick before locking down on Thursday evening, but we don’t mind having Almirola as a sleeper pick this weekend.
EDIT: We’re dropping Austin Dillon and putting Trevor Bayne on our team.
Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. are going to be very strong this weekend. We still have 7 starts remaining with Edwards, and while it wouldn’t exactly be the smartest move from a strategic standpoint, he still might make our roster this weekend. None of the other B Group drivers have been stellar on the restrictor plate tracks this season, and that makes it hard to rank them this week. Kyle Larson did finish 7th in this year’s Daytona 500, but we have 5 starts left with him so he won’t make our roster. Clint Bowyer had a surprising top 10 finish at Talladega back in May, but can you trust him? We can’t. If you’re really looking for a sleeper, why not Trevor Bayne? That #6 team has been running pretty good this season and he finished 9th in this race one year ago. Bayne also came home 10th in this year’s Talladega race.
Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Austin Dillon, (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Tony Stewart, (8) Aric Almirola, (9) Kyle Larson, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (13) Danica Patrick, (14) A.J. Allmendinger, (15) Greg Biffle, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Daytona 2
We have no intention of starting either Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney on Saturday night, and honestly it wouldn’t be a wise move. It’s not worth wasting a start at a track like Daytona. With that being said, Elliott might make our team this weekend for the chance at qualifying bonus points. That #24 team has had qualifying figured out on the restrictor plate tracks for the last couple of years, and it has showed this season as Chase has been on the pole for both the Daytona 500 and the first race at Talladega. He finished 5th in the latter race. After seeing the entry list, we’re looking at Landon Cassill as our C Group driver this weekend. He finished 23rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and came home 11th back at Talladega. The next-best C Group driver on the restrictor plate tracks this season has been Michael McDowell, who ended up 15th and 21st, respectively, in those two races. Our C Group picks are the most likely to change before lockdown but right now we have Chase Elliott and Landon Cassill as our two picks.
Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Landon Cassill, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Regan Smith, (6) David Ragan, (7) David Gilliland, (8) Chris Buescher, (9) Reed Sorenson, the rest
