The Michigan race weekend is usually a typical cookie cutter event, but there’s actually a lot of things going on this weekend. First there’s the smaller spoiler on the race cars, which should help with passing on race day. Also, the weather during Saturday’s practice sessions was about 15 degrees higher than what it’s projected to be on Sunday. And then there’s the fact that we haven’t had a repeat winner here at Michigan International Speedway in the last three years.
The Jordan McAbee A Group Curse struck again last week at Pocono when Jimmie Johnson went slamming into the wall, ending up 35th. Our gamble on Kasey Kahne in the B Group salvaged our week somewhat, with a total score of 230 points at “The Tricky Triangle.” We’re in the 45th percentile after 14 of 36 races.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan
Thanks to Kevin Harvick’s bad luck and bad timing in qualifying, he’s going to start from 29th on Sunday afternoon. This isn’t a big deal, as the #4 Chevrolet is good enough to make its way through the field, but at the same time it’s kind of concerning because you never know what’s going to happen. It’s not an ideal situation for your Fantasy NASCAR driver to be stuck in the middle of the pack when a new package is being used and drivers don’t really know what to expect. Our other A Group driver is Brad Keselowski, who qualified 15th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400.
Harvick definitely had the faster car between the two off the truck, but that’s not to say that there isn’t speed in that #2 Ford. Also, Keselowski hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 here at Michigan since 2013, and he’s been one of the best performers in the Sprint Cup Series over the last couple of months. We planned on starting Harvick if he looked like he had the car to beat, could lead the most laps, and win. That just isn’t quite the case this weekend, so we’re starting Brad Keselowski in the A Group for the first time in 2016. He was 2nd-fastest n the Happy Hour speed chart after ranking 5th in Practice #2.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Jimmie Johnson, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Kevin Harvick, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (7) Kyle Busch, (8) Denny Hamlin, (9) Kurt Busch
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Michigan
We decided to stay away from Carl Edwards this week for a few reasons, and we thought that plan was working out perfectly on Friday when he qualified 11th. You see, we’d really only like to use Cousin Carl when he has a car that can lead a bunch of laps and win the race. And that’s exactly how this weekend is unfolding. Edwards had a great practice session on Saturday morning, and conditions during that are most like what they will be during the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday. Even Edwards was surprised with how much speed was in his car, and he made a long run during that first session, which is always a sign that he has a shot at contending. There’s a lot of other B Group drivers that are capable of running well here on Sunday, but if you have 7 or more starts remaining with Carl Edwards, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to start him. He probably had the best car in this race one year ago.
Our four B Group drivers for Michigan are Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Paul Menard. We went into this weekend with an absolute intention of starting Menard no matter what, but the fact that he will roll off the grid from 32nd on Sunday concerns us. We just didn’t see enough speed in that #27 Chevrolet to justify a start this weekend, although Menard would be a great option in leagues that award points based on place differential.
The #42 Chevrolet with Kyle Larson has been solid on the speed charts since unloading, and if NASCAR accomplishes what they are attempting (a multi-groove race with emphasis on braking in the corners), that’s setting up for a great run out of Kyle Larson on Sunday. So we’re starting him from the 7th-place starting spot. He almost won this race last season and finished 13th in the fall. So now the choice becomes either Austin Dillon or Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. The latter never really shows what he has in practice, but we think the #17 Ford has some good speed this weekend. At worst, Stenhouse should be about a 15th-place car. Meanwhile, Dillon has been pretty reliable on the intermediate tracks this season and finished 4th here at Michigan last fall. He was quicker than Stenhouse in both practice sessions on Saturday, so we’re going to go ahead and start Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon in the B Group this weekend.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Austin Dillon, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Tony Stewart, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) Paul Menard, (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan
When Practice #1 was overwith on Friday and the #24 Chevrolet was at the top of the speed chart, we thought this might be the weekend where Chase Elliott is able to get into victory lane. After all, he did have the best car for most of the race at Pocono last weekend. He ended up qualifying 10th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 while Ryan Blaney will start 5th. Both of those guys are going to have solid top 10 cars this weekend–and maybe even top 5–but we’re still playing the numbers game here in the C Group. From that perspective, the smartest move is to start Ty Dillon at Michigan this weekend. Yeah, we’re sacrificing some points this week, but we’ll make it up later. Dillon is one of those drivers that can simply stay out of trouble and log laps. He will start from 21st for Sunday’s race, and if everything goes as expected, he might be able to crack the top 20 when the checkered flag waves. As long as he doesn’t wreck that #95 Chevrolet, we’ll probably be happy with the start.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Ryan Blaney, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Brian Scott, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Michael Annett, (9) David Ragan, the rest
