We typically see the same drivers finishing up front on a regular basis when the series stops at Dover, so even though this is a relatively short track (1 mile in length), starting position may not matter too much on Sunday. The two winners from 2015–Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick–started 14th and 15th, respectively. And while it is important to look at practice speeds when making your Fantasy NASCAR picks, keep in mind that fuel runs here are quite long, so simply looking at a ten-lap average might not tell the whole story. Speaking of fuel, don’t count out fuel mileage as a potential factor here on Sunday. Remember, Brad Keselowski went to victory lane here back in 2012 after stretching his fuel in the final 89 laps of the race.
Last week, the Jordan McAbee curse struck again, as Joey Logano (our A Group starter) was caught up in a wreck. We also started Martin Truex, Jr. at Kansas, and we all know what happened there. We ended up with 260 points at Kansas despite those two strokes of bad luck, but we’re still stuck in the 30th percentile.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Dover
We updated our A Group picks late on Thursday evening and swapped out Matt Kenseth for Jimmie Johnson due to rain being in the forecast. However, we forgot to hit Save, so when we looked at our team on Friday, we noticed we were stuck with Kenseth and Kevin Harvick. Oh, well. The pick all week was going to be Harvick anyway, and that was guaranteed when qualifying was rained out on Friday and the #4 team was awarded the pole for Sunday’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. Harvick had the one of the best cars here in both races last season and that’s going to be the case this Sunday as well. From a pure strength perspective, we honestly don’t see many other cars being able to beat him this weekend. Kyle Busch is probably going to give Harvick a run for his money this weekend, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. might have something to say about it since he starts up front. If you have Kevin Harvick as one of your A Group drives this week, we see no reason why you shouldn’t start him. We are, no questions asked.
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Jimmie Johnson, (4) Kurt Busch, (5) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (6) Matt Kenseth, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Joey Logano, (9) Brad Keselowski
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Dover
Our four B Group drivers this weekend are: Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Larson, Kasey Kahne, and Jamie McMurray. First we’ll talk about Martin Truex, Jr. Our strategy for starting him this year has been to only do so when he can lead the most laps and win the race. That’s why we started him at Kansas last weekend. But as far as the AAA 400 Drive for Autism here at Dover on Sunday, we’re just not quite seeing that same potential from the #78 Toyota. Yes, Truex had one of the best cars in this race last year and led 131 laps, but we think it’s going to be extremely difficult for anyone to beat Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch this weekend. Still, Martin Truex, Jr. should be a solid top 5 car on Sunday, but we’re leaning toward saving a start right now.
Jamie McMurray hurt his hand/wrist during the wreck in Practice #1 on Friday, so he’s pretty much out as a starter in Yahoo! this weekend. So that leaves Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne. We’ll start with Larson. Although the #42 Chevrolet wasn’t able to show its speed in qualifying and will start 23rd on Sunday, we still have high hopes for this team. Hopefully they can stay out of trouble and put together a good race. Larson has never finished worse than 11th here at Dover in his four career starts, and he looked sporty enough during Practice #2 to keep that trend going on Sunday. Larson was 6th-fastest in that first session and ended up 12th-fastest in Happy Hour with the 7th-best ten-lap average. Yes, this #42 team has been unreliable as hell this season as a Fantasy NASCAR pick, but they’ve performed their best at the shorter tracks. We still think Larson will be one of the better picks here on Sunday, as we thought early on in the week.
Kasey Kahne is another one of those drivers that is very unreliable when it comes to Fantasy NASCAR (this is starting to sound like a bad decision, isn’t it?) but we think he’s going to be solid on Sunday…as long as he finishes the race. Kahne swept the top 10 here at Dover last season and will roll off the grid from the 11th-place starting spot for Sunday’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. He was 11th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and also had the 4th-best ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, the #5 Chevrolet ranked 23rd and 15th on those charts, respectively. Momentum-wise, Kahne has just one finish worse than 17th over the last five Sprint Cup races, and for him that is doing pretty good. If he can bring the #5 Chevrolet home in a spot somewhere close to where he starts here on Sunday, we’ll be more than happy. We’re crossing our fingers and starting Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne in the B Group this weekend with Martin Truex, Jr. and Jamie McMurray on the bench. There might be a late switch from Kahne to Truex before we go green on Sunday, though, as long as remember to hit the save button.
EDIT: We have switched Kahne and Truex and will be starting Kyle Larson and Martin Truex, Jr. in the B Group.
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Austin Dillon, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Aric Almirola, (9) Jamie McMurray, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Greg Biffle, (12) Tony Stewart, (13) A.J. Allmendinger, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Casey Mears, (16) Danica Patrick, (17) Clint Bowyer
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Dover
The C Group for us this weekend was an ultimate start saving strategy. We’d like to keep Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney for the intermediate tracks, so we didn’t put either of them on our roster this weekend. If you’re wondering why we have this strategy, we’ll quickly explain: these short track races are all about just logging laps for these lower guys. You never know who is going to wreck out or have problems and find themselves a few laps down in an instant. If a lower team like David Ragan or Matt DiBenedetto can just keep plugging along and logging laps, trying their best to not get passed by the leader, anything can happen. DiBenedetto finished top 10 at Bristol this year by doing that. So when you’re in a situation like us, you’re really just hoping for the best and that your C Group driver doesn’t have any mechanical issues. We’d be thrilled for a top 25 finish out of David Ragan on Sunday, which is who we are starting. And if you have Brian Scott and want to start save, go ahead and use him this week, he’s shown some decent speed all weekend and starts 17th.
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Brian Scott, (4) David Ragan, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Chris Buescher, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Matt DiBenedetto, (9) Landon Cassill, the rest
