This week we set our sights on Dover International Speedway, a 1-mile oval that twelve current Sprint Cup drivers have visited victory lane at. Jimmie Johnson leads the way in that category with a mind-blowing ten wins at “The Monster Mile,” with Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart next at three wins a piece. It takes a lot out of a driver to run 400 miles at this track, but we personally believe Dover would be one of the most fun places to race it.
Yahoo! A Group Picks for Dover
Matt Kenseth (8 starts remaining) – Jimmie Johnson is probably going to be one of the most picked A Group drivers this weekend, and he should be considering he has won here so many times. But we need to do something to be different, so we’re going to leave him off for the AAA 400. Also, it’s noteworthy that Johnson has only led 23 laps total over the last three Dover races. Anyway, we’re going to jump on the Matt Kenseth train this weekend and hope that top 5 run at Kansas last Saturday night ignites a spark with this team. Statistically, the #20 Toyota has been one of the strongest cars here at Dover over the last few years, and Kenseth is a two-time winner here. Additionally, in thirty-four career starts at “The Monster Mile,” he has compiled twenty-two top 10 finishes (64.7%). Kenseth won the pole for the fall race here at Dover last season and has finished 7th or better in four of the last five races here. We keep saying that one week he’s finally going to break out and get his first win in 2016, and maybe it’ll be this week. Who knows?
Kevin Harvick (7 starts remaining) – Here’s our lock pick of the week. Honestly, it might be time for the changing of the guard here at Dover. Kevin Harvick finally broke through with an absolutely dominating win here last fall, and we think he could very easily rack up a few more victories at “The Monster Mile” over the next few years. We say “finally” because Harvick has arguably had the best car here at Dover over the last two years (four races), and he has led 693 laps over that span. To put that into perspective, only five drivers have led more laps than that throughout their entire careers at this race track. The #4 Chevrolet finished 2nd in this race last season and will be a contender here in the AAA 400 on Sunday.
As far as some of the other A Group drivers go… Kyle Busch should contend for the win again here on Sunday. He almost made our roster–and still might. If you want to really go off-sequence, go with Denny Hamlin: he finished 5th in this race two years ago and has started up front in the recent Dover races (as well as pretty much every Sprint Cup race in 2016).
Yahoo! B Group Picks for Dover
Kyle Larson (8 starts remaining) – Man, what a disappointing finish for this kid at Kansas last week. We honestly thought Kyle Larson could have got his first Sprint Cup win on Saturday night if there was a green-white-checkered finish. Still, it had to boost this #42 team’s confidence to see that they could run that well, especially after they looked to have just mediocre speed all weekend. Anyway, Larson’s record here at Dover International Speedway is short but it’s impressive nonetheless. In four career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Kyle has never finished worse than 11th and he posted a career-best 3rd-place finish in this event last year–which was surprising because of how disappointing the whole 2015 season was for Larson. We could honestly see him getting his first Sprint Cup win at Dover, and you never know, it could be this weekend. Larson is definitely going to be on our roster for Dover.
Martin Truex, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – Speaking of heartbreaking… you have to feel for this #78 team. They dominated at Texas and pissed that race away, and then did the exact same thing at Kansas. This is really starting to remind me of their 2015 season, where it took them until Pocono finally break out and get the win. Dover is the site of Truex’s sole Sprint Cup win, but he also hasn’t really even been close since then; that’s also his only top 5 finish at this track as well. Still, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 11th here at Dover since the 2013 season, and he led 131 laps in this race last year before finishing 6th (sound familiar?). Right now, our plan is to roster the #78 Toyota as a backup plan and only start Truex if he can dominate the race on Sunday or if the rest of our B Group looks flat-out terrible.
Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – We’re doubling down on the Chip Ganassi Chevrolets this weekend. Jamie McMurray is coming off of his worst finish of the season last week at Kansas, but we’re going to bet that he bounces back here at Dover. This has been a nice track for McMurray (and Ganassi, really) over the last five races, as the #1 Chevrolet has came home 13th or better in four of those races. In the two races at “The Monster Mile” last season, Jamie Mac finished 7th and 4th, which is one of just two career top 5 finishes for him in twenty-six career starts at this track.
Kasey Kahne (8 starts remaining) – We expected a lot out of Kasey Kahne at Kansas last week and he failed to deliver. However, that #5 car looked like absolute junk all weekend long and they were still able to come home with a 16th-place finish, which we think says a lot about that #5 team. Our expectations for Kahne here at Dover might be too high once again, but when we look at the last nine races at this track, Kasey has had a driver rating of at least 90.0 in all but two of them. In the two races in 2015, Kahne came home 4th and 6th, with that 4th-place run tying his career-best finish at this track. Eventually the finishes are going to come for this #5 team, and as far as average driver rating goes, they rank 3rd in the whole Sprint Cup garage over the last six races. This B Group pick might change but as of now Kasey Kahne is on our roster for Dover.
There’s a lot of promising options in the B Group this week. As usual, we think Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a nice sleeper option. He finished 8th in the fall race here last season and still might make our roster. If you want go to the sleeper route, why not Aric Almirola? He finished 5th in both Dover races last season. Carl Edwards hasn’t had a top 10 finish here since 2012, and while we do think that that changes on Sunday, it’s still a great week to give the #19 Toyota a rest. Also, we think Tony Stewart could surprise some people this weekend. Don’t forget that he’s coming off of that 12th-place run last week at Kansas, and he won here at Dover back in 2013.
Yahoo! C Group Picks for Dover
Our initial thought for this weekend is that Dover is the race to give Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney a break. We’re going to have to bite the bullet and start some other C Group drivers sometime this season, and with how the Dover races can unfold, it wouldn’t be crazy to see some of the other C Group drivers sneak away with a top 20 finish on Sunday. Right off the bat we’re looking at David Ragan as an option. He ran 13th and 22nd in the two Dover races last season, but it should be noted that he was in the #55 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing. Still, in 2016, Ragan has had some decent finishes on the “smaller” tracks, ending up 23rd at Richmond, 21st at Martinsville, and 24th at Phoenix. We thought he had a pretty good car at Bristol but ended up having engine issues. Another C Group driver to consider is Chris Buescher, who won one of the Xfinity races here at Dover last season and is coming off a pretty good finish (for him) of 24th at Kansas. There is also Landon Cassill, who finished 23rd in this race at Dover last season and has an average result of 24th in the last six Sprint Cup races. And then there’s Matt DiBenedetto, who has been at his best on the tracks less than 1.5 miles in length this season. Right now our gut says David Ragan and Landon Cassill for the C Group drivers this weekend, but we might change our mind. If we do, we’ll update this post.
