We don’t know about you, but we’re ready for Richmond. We think that the races here are some of the best we’ll see all season, and after that rough fantasy day at Bristol last Sunday, we need a good race. Hopefully this week we’ll have a little better luck–although it’s probably not very likely that we’ll be much worse! The good news is that the race this week is another one that we should see some sleepers creep up near the front, which should be music to people’s ears who are in major “start save” mode for Yahoo! right now.
Richmond International Raceway is a 3/4-mile D-shaped race track that is technically a short track but races like an intermediate venue.
Yahoo! A Group Picks for Richmond
Joey Logano (8 starts remaining) – Joey Logano has had a very up and down season when you look strictly at his finishes. In the odd weeks–such as #1-Daytona, #3-Las Vegas, etc.–he has finished 6th, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd. In the even weeks, he has ended up 12th, 18th, 11th, and 10th. Well, this weekend’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond is week #9 of the Sprint Cup season, so if Joey is going to continue this streak (or whatever you want to call it), he’s due for another single digit run. Also, he’s pretty darn good at this venue; Logano started on the pole for both Richmond races last season and has finished 6th or better in five of his last six starts here–and that includes his win here in the spring 2014 race. Start saving isn’t that big of a deal in this group, in our opinion, and we have Logano ranked 3rd among the A Drivers so we’re going to go ahead and use him.
Kyle Busch (7 starts remaining) – We’re starting to think that we have create a curse when starting Kyle Busch. We have used him twice for our Yahoo! team this year: at Fontana, where he blew a tire while running 2nd, and last week at Bristol when he was the hands-down favorite to win. Oh, well, that happens. We’re focusing on Richmond now. Rowdy is a four-time winner at this race track and owns the best career average finish here (7.1) by a large margin (Denny Hamlin is 2nd with 10.8). One of the reasons that Kyle Busch has such a good record here is because his worst result at this track is 24th. There aren’t many drivers in the Sprint Cup Series that can say that at any track. Rowdy missed this spring race last year due to his leg injuries but he finished 2nd in the fall race here at Richmond and ran 3rd in the spring 2014 race. The #18 Toyota will be a contender here on Sunday.
For those looking for other A Group options, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson should be top 5 threats on Sunday, and we really like Kurt Busch as a start save option. There’s really not a bad A Group pick this week, although it’s understandable if you want to stay away from Matt Kenseth. He did win the fall race here last season, though.
Yahoo! B Group Picks for Richmond
A.J. Allmendinger (8 starts remaining) – We started Allmendinger back at Martinsville when he had that great 2nd-place run, and now we’re hoping to catch lightening in the bottle twice. This #47 team is actually having a very nice start to their 2016 season with an average finish of 16.3 over the first eight races. Now we’re at Richmond for race #9, and if you look at the last few spring races at this track, you’ll notice that Allmendinger has finished 13th, 6th, and 14th. Not too shabby for a guy like A.J. Another reason we like The Dinger is because of a system we use here at Fantasy Racing Online for our full-season Fantasy NASCAR game, The Showcase. We’re not going to give out the formula, but essentially we take the average finish of all drivers in the last six races overall, as well as the last six races at the track we are at that week, compare it to a baseline, and then drivers are ranked and given a handicap point level bases on that. This week, Allmendinger comes in at 11th-best on that list and 4th among B Group drivers. As far as a start-save option, A.J. is your best choice this week.
Kyle Larson (9 starts remaining) – We really like how this #42 team is performing on the shorter tracks this season. Larson had that near-win at Martinsville earlier this year and looked to be a solid top 5 (at least top 10) car at Bristol if it wasn’t for the mechanical issues that ended his day. Those are something you can’t predict, and we’re not going to start trying, either. Anyway, looking at Richmond, the fast way around this track is right there at the bottom, and we all know that Larson loves to rim ride. However, he’s had consistent success at this track since joining NASCAR’s top series, with no finish worse than 16th in his four career starts thus far. Larson finished 12th in both races here at RIR last season and we see no reason why he wouldn’t be able to replicate that here on Sunday.
Jamie McMurray (8 starts remaining) – Jamie Mac isn’t the flashiest Fantasy NASCAR pick, but he consistently gets the finish, and that’s what we’re looking for this week. Over the last six Sprint Cup races, McMurray has just one finish worse than 16th, and that was his 23rd-place run at Martinsville. Here at Richmond, McMurray hasn’t ended up worse than 13th in any of the last five races, and he finished 4th in this event one year ago. He also came home 4th in the fall 2014 race as well as the fall 2013 race. If you’re like us and haven’t used Jamie Mac very much this season, Richmond is an excellent place to put him on your roster as a start save option. Over the last four races here, only six drivers have a better average driver rating than McMurray, so you know his finishes aren’t flukes.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – Since the beginning of the season, we’ve probably had Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. as one of our top sleeper picks in about half of the races, but we have yet to pull the trigger on him in most games–especially Yahoo!. This week, once again, we’re going to be keeping an eye on this #17 Ford. Stenhouse finished 16th in the fall race here at Richmond last September, which was right about the time that Roush-Fenway Racing was starting to turn things around. He finished 16th at Bristol last week (despite starting 32nd) and that makes it five finishes of 16th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races for him. Stenhouse really excelled on this type of track in the Xfinity Series, too.
Obviously we’re going in full “start save” mode this week, although we might throw Carl Edwards on our roster. Honestly, with as fast as that #19 Toyota has been lately, he just might go out and dominate the race here this weekend as well. Carl won the fall race here at Richmond in 2013. We’re not a big fan of Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend. He should have a top 10 car but we want top 5s if we’re going to use him. Austin Dillon has never finished better than 20th here at Richmond and has come back down to earth over the last month, so we’re going to leave him off our roster this week. Other B Group drivers we like at Richmond are Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne, with Aric Almirola as a deeper sleeper pick.
Yahoo! C Group Picks for Richmond
EDIT 04/21/16: It was announced on Thursday that Tony Stewart will be returning this weekend at Richmond. We will be going with Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney in the C Group this weekend.
Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney are definitely the best choices in the C Group this weekend (as usual), but we’re remaining in ultra start save mode with this group of drivers, so one of the roster spots for this group is dedicated to the driver of the #14 Chevrolet. Stewart-Haas Racing announced on Monday that Brian Vickers will be piloting that race car this weekend, and as long as he doesn’t pull his patented “hit the wall” move halfway through the race, he should be a decent pick. Vickers didn’t race here at Richmond last season, but during 2014–when he was still with Michael Waltrip Racing–he ended up 12th and 13th in the two events at this track. As far as our second C Group driver, we’re going with Chase Elliott, who is fresh off of his top 5 run at Bristol. Also, Elliott ran the #25 Chevrolet in this race here at Richmond last season and came home 16th. So, our C Group picks: Brian Vickers and Chase Elliott. We have six and eight starts remaining, respectively.
great review
Thanks!