We’re at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for some good old fashioned short track racing with the Food City 500. It would be nice if we got to see practice before locking in our Yahoo! Auto Racing roster this week because no drivers have really been a solid pick here at Bristol over the last few years. Over the last six races in “Thunder Valley,” the driver with the best average finish is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (not a joke) with 11.2. Clint Bowyer is close behind with 11.3, and the first “elite” driver on that list is Joey Logano with a 14th-place average result over the last last three years.
Handicapping races here at Bristol can be difficult. Like we saw at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, one minor mistake by a team can ruin their entire race. This is the second short track race of the season, so in addition to history here at Bristol Motor Speedway, we’re going to consider how teams performed at Martinsville this year as well as momentum through the first seven races of 2016.
Yahoo! A Group Picks for Bristol
Kyle Busch (8 starts remaining) – We talked ourselves out of putting Kyle Busch on our roster last weekend at Texas and he went on to win the race, making it two victories in a row for this #18 team. We’re not going to make that mistake again. Rowdy is a five-time winner in the Sprint Cup Series here at Bristol Motor Speedway and there’s no doubt in our mind that he will be a contender once again here on Sunday afternoon. Remember, if it wasn’t for the blown tire at Fontana, Kyle Busch’s worst finish thus far in 2016 would be 4th. You can’t beat momentum like that. Kyle ran 8th in last year’s fall race here at Bristol (he missed the spring race due to his leg injuries) but he led the most laps that day (192) and had the 2nd-best driver rating in that race (127.2). Last but not least–and in case you forgot–Rowdy dominated the race at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, and although that track is a lot different than Bristol, they are both short tracks.
Jimmie Johnson (8 starts remaining) – We’re going the safe route here and throwing Jimmie Johnson on our roster as the second A Group driver. He’s currently on a three-race streak of top 5 finishes here at Bristol Motor Speedway and he had a solid top 10 car at Martinsville a couple weeks ago despite starting 24th. While we do like Kevin Harvick this week, we only have 7 starts remaining so we’re going to keep him on the bench. We also like the Penske Fords of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski this weekend, especially for qualifying points, and might throw one of those guys on here instead of Jimmie before locking in on Friday morning. This would also be a great track for Matt Kenseth to turn his season around (he’s won two of the last five Bristol races), but can you really trust the #20 team right now? We can’t. As far as the rest of the A Group drivers, we don’t really see a reason to dig any deeper than the top two or three, depending on your start situation of course.
Edit: We’re going with Joey Logano alongside Kyle Busch in the A Group for Bristol.
Yahoo! B Group Picks for Bristol
First let’s talk about “The Big Three” in the B Group: Carl Edwards, Martin Truex, Jr., and Austin Dillon. We’re not putting any of them on our roster this week. Carl Edwards won this race two years ago and he has three top 10s in the last four Bristol races, but we’re still not picking him because we don’t want to waste a start at a track that’s as unpredictable as Bristol can be. We’re going with the underdogs this week, although if you have eight or nine Edwards starts left, we wouldn’t argue with you putting him on your roster. We only have seven. Now, Martin Truex, Jr. hasn’t finished better than 20th in his last five Bristol starts, so he’s out on that alone. Austin Dillon should be a good pick again this week, as he has finished 13th or better in three of his four Cup starts here at Bristol, but like Edwards we’re going to save him. We’d rather have Dillon for the intermediate tracks, and we’re already down to six starts left with him. So, let’s get to our picks…
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – This #17 team has greatly improved at qualifying this season (12.3 average start) and when they happens with a team like this, the good finishes tend to come sooner rather than later. Ricky did have that 5th-place run at Fontana, and with his 16th-place finish at Texas last Saturday night, he has now finished inside that mark in four of the last six Cup races. Stenhouse did finish 32nd at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, but he’s terrible at that track. Here at Bristol, though, he has three top 6 finishes in the last four events and owns an average finish of 11.2 in six career starts here. You can’t argue with results, and that’s what Ricky tends to get here in Thunder Valley.
Paul Menard (7 starts remaining) – Menard is coming off of that great run at Martinsville a couple weeks ago (he finished 8th) but that has been his only top 10 finish of the season thus far. However, we’re confident that he may be able to grab a second here at Bristol on Sunday afternoon. Menard actually has a nice little record here in Thunder Valley, as he has six finishes of 11th or better in the last eight races here. Like Stenhouse, Menard may not run the prettiest races here, but he gets the finishes and that’s all that matters. He also has zero DNFs here at Bristol with a career-worst finish of just 32nd over 17 total starts at “The Bullring.”
Kyle Larson (9 starts remaining) – Kyle Larson is another driver that is coming off of a great finish at Martinsville (he finished 3rd), and he’s actually had a pretty solid last month of racing overall. Kyle finished 14th at Texas last Saturday night and that makes it three top 15s in the last four Sprint Cup races for this kid. Yeah, he’s been pretty disappointing this year, and his unpredictability is quite frustrating, but Larson is still adjusting to a new crew chief and we think this #42 team is starting to gain momentum. Not only that, but Larson has finished 7th and 10th in the last two spring races here at Bristol and led 90 laps in this race last year. It’s a risky pick but you never know what Kyle Larson is going to show up during the race. One of these times he’s going to come from nowhere and get his first Sprint Cup win.
Ryan Newman (8 starts remaining) – “The Rocketman” has posted just one top 10 finish over the first seven Sprint Cup races of 2016, but that was at Martinsville, which is the only other short track we’ve stopped at so far. So that’s good news. Newman also ran 5th in this event one year ago and followed that up with a solid 10th-place finish in the fall race. Also, this #31 team has only really had one terrible finish thus far in 2016, and that was at Phoenix. So we’re going to go the safe route here and stick with Newman. There are a lot of sleeper options in the B Group this week, though.
Over the last four Bristol races, only four drivers have a better average driver rating than Jamie McMurray, which is pretty impressive considering he has just one top 10 finish over that span. What that tells us, though, is that this #1 team runs well but doesn’t necessarily get the finish. He is a solid option this week as well. Kasey Kahne posted four straight top 10s at Bristol from 2012 to 2014 but his best finish in the last three races here is 16th. He’s unpredictable enough on the intermediate tracks, let alone short tracks, so we’re not touching the #5 car. Aric Almirola came home 3rd in this race two years ago and 13th in the 2015 spring event, so there’s some sleeper value there. Finally, Greg Biffle has four finishes of 12th or better in the last six Bristol races, and he finished 12th at Martinsville a couple weeks ago, so the #16 Ford might be worth a shot.
Yahoo! C Group Picks for Bristol
Ty Dillon is in the #14 Chevrolet this weekend, and in the two races he’s ran that car in 2016, he’s come home 17th and 15th. He’s never made a Sprint Cup start here at “The Bullring” but Ty did finish 5th and 4th in the two Xfinity races here last season. As far as who to pair with him, we typically put either Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney on our roster every week. Chase has three top 10s in the last four Sprint Cup races while Blaney has one. Chase also ran top 10 in both Xfinity races here last season, so for our team this week we’re going with Ty Dillon and Chase Elliott in the C Group. We have eight starts remaining with both drivers.
If you’re looking for a real deep sleeper and start save option, we’d recommend David Ragan. He qualified 4th for this race last season while driving the #55 Toyota and wound up finishing 21st at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago in his #23 car.
