This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series completes it’s west coast swing with the Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway–otherwise known as Fontana. This is a 2-mile race track that is D-shaped, and is the first of the “big” intermediates that the series is visiting in 2016. Sunday’s Auto Club 400 will also be the only race ran at Fontana this season, as the Sprint Cup Series only stops here once per season. Typically we see the same cars up front when we hit this California track, but with the way the 2016 season has been going, nothing is really guaranteed.
Looking at how the two most recent intermediate races played out this season (Atlanta and Las Vegas) will be somewhat beneficial to Fantasy NASCAR players this week, but looking at recent Michigan races may have more of a benefit, as that is also a 2-mile race track.
Yahoo! A Group Picks for Auto Club
Kyle Busch (9 starts remaining) – Rowdy missed the Fontana race last year, and that was probably a good thing for everybody else because he’s really, really good here. Over Kyle’s last four starts at this track, he’s never finished worse than 3rd, and he posted back-to-back victories in 2013 and 2014. Those are two of his three career wins here at Auto Club Speedway. Additionally, in his last fifteen overall starts here, Kyle has posted twelve top 10 finishes. This #18 team has been a top 5 machine so far in their post-championship campaign and there is no reason to think that that streak will end here in the Auto Club 400 on Sunday. Not only will Kyle Busch be a threat to win on Sunday, but he could get us some qualifying points as well, as he has started 4th or better in two of his last three races at this track. It’s time to unleash the beast.
Kurt Busch (9 starts remaining) – We’re going with the Busch Brothers this week in California. Although there are some other A Group options available, we feel confident with how Kyle Busch is performing as well as the speed that the #41 Chevrolet has shown thus far. Not to mention, Kurt Busch had this race won a year ago before NASCAR’s powers that be decided to intervene. You can read more about my opinion on that here, although please note that that article is a year old. Getting back to Kurt, he’s currently on a three-race streak of top 5s here at Auto Club Speedway and has posted seven top 10s in his last nine overall races at this track. He also has captured four career poles here and should be a threat for the #1 starting spot again this weekend.
Yahoo! B Group Picks for Auto Club
Austin Dillon (7 starts remaining) – Fantasy NASCAR’s most valuable driver thus far to 2016 is poised to have another good race this weekend at Auto Club Speedway. We don’t even mind that we’ve already used two of the nine allowed starts for this guy, because history has shown that, more often than not, the mid-tier driver that gets off to a hot start tends to fizzle out. Austin has made two career Sprint Cup starts here at Fontana and has finished 11th and 16th. With the speed this #3 Chevrolet has had so far this season, though, it’s hard not to consider Dillon a top 10 thread heading into the Auto Club 400 weekend.
Paul Menard (8 starts remaining) – We jumped all over Paul Menard at Las Vegas a couple of weeks, and although his 15th-place finish wasn’t the best, it was sufficient in what we were trying to achieve: saving Truex/Edwards starts. We’re looking at Menard to accomplish that once again this weekend in the Auto Club 400. Statistically, this has been the best track on the circuit for Menard since the start of the 2014 season, as he finished 4th in this race one year ago and came home 9th in the 2014 event. In 2013, he finished 8th. If Paul can bring home a top 10 finish again this weekend, we’ll be more than satisfied with him on our Yahoo! team.
Aric Almirola (9 starts remaining) – Aric Almirola is off to a nice little start here in 2016, and as we always recommend at the beginning of the season: run ’em while they’re hot. With his 13th-place run at Phoenix last weekend, Almirola now has three top 15s through the first four races of 2016, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he made it four of five here at Auto Club Speedway on Sunday. The #43 Ford came home a respectable 11th in this race one year ago and ran 14th in the 2013 campaign. There are quite a few “surprise” drivers that you could take a shot with in the B Group this weekend (Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.) but our pick is probably going to be Aric Almirola.
Martin Truex, Jr. (8 starts remaining) – The smart move here is to put either Carl Edwards or Truex, Jr. on your roster this week as a “backup plan” in case two or three of your other B Group drivers look absolutely terrible heading into the Auto Club 400 on Sunday. We burned another Carl Edwards start last week at Phoenix (no regrets), so we’re down to seven left with the #19 Toyota. Therefore, we’re going to put Martin Truex, Jr. on our roster as the “backup plan” driver for Fontana. Despite the fact that Truex has emerged as one of the top fantasy options at all intermediate tracks, he hasn’t quite figured out Auto Club Speedway, for whatever reason. He did finish 8th in this race one year ago, though. Right now we’re leaning toward safe and that means rostering Truex.
Yahoo! C Group Picks for Auto Club
Ryan Blaney (9 starts remaining) – It’s becoming blatantly obvious that you simply can’t be in start saving mode with the two rookie stars in C Group. Ryan Blaney now has back-to-back top 10s after his 10th-place run at Phoenix, and we’re coming to a track type that the Wood Brothers organization tends to run well at. Blaney has never ran a Sprint Cup race here at Auto Club Speedway and never made a start here in the XFinity Series either. I’m not too worried about that, though, because this kid simply knows how to stay out of trouble and get the finish. We only plan on starting him if the #21 Ford looks like a top 10 car, which wouldn’t be all that surprising. Also, we chose Blaney over Chase Elliott simply because we have nine starts left with the former. We may end up putting both on there, though, or switch them out. They both should have a similar finish on Sunday.
Brian Vickers (8 starts remaining) – Brian Vickers is in the #14 Chevrolet this weekend, and we’re planning on having him available on the roster as of now. A lot of people will be taking Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott in the C Group–and we don’t blame them–but, in our mind, if we can get a top 15 finish out of a guy like Brian Vickers, it’s worth trying to save Blaney and Elliott for as long as possible. Plus, Auto Club Speedway has been a good track for Vickers in the past; he ran 7th in this race during the 2014 season and has finished 12th or better in eight of his last nine starts here. Statistically, this is Vickers’ 2nd-best track on the circuit when you look at his finishes throughout his entire career. Brian has been disappointing in his two 2016 Sprint Cup starts thus far but Ty Dillon has shown that this car has decent speed. Now Vickers just needs to get the finish.
Thanks for all the great advice!! Enjoy the coffee