The number of road courses on the schedule was a big talking point last offseason, and now we hit our final road course stop of 2021: the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte on Sunday afternoon. There have been several road course races this year that have had some really crazy stuff happen during them, but those that didn’t pretty much ended as expected. You’d like to think we’ll see a “normal” race here on Sunday, but only time will tell. Denny Hamlin is on the pole and Chase Elliott is the heavy favorite according to sportsbooks.
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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is a very talented road course racer. He’s won twice at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen and has posted top 5 finishes in 14 of his 40 starts on this track type (35%). But for some reason, these roval tracks have been giving Rowdy fits ever since they were introduced on the schedule. Here at the Charlotte ROVAL specifically, Busch has finishes of 32nd, 37th, and 30th in three career starts, and the two races at the Daytona Road Course have ended with Kyle in 37th and 35th. So in case you were wondering why the algorithm has Rowdy predicted to finish 12th… that’s a big reason. Anyway, we saw Busch get the win in the Clash at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year, and if he has one of his “normal” road course races on Sunday, he should be able to compete for a top 5 finish.
Christopher Bell – This is another driver that has much higher upside on Sunday than a 14th-place finish. The bad thing with Christopher Bell is, he’s hit or miss. In eight career Cup Series starts on road courses, CBell has a win (at Daytona Road Course earlier this year), a 2nd-place finish (at Road America), and a 7th-place result (at Watkins Glen). The other five road course races? All finishes of 21st or worse. The potential is there for Christopher Bell to challenge for a great finish here in the Bank of America ROVAL 400 on Sunday afternoon, but it’s nowhere near guaranteed.
Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Elliott, Chase | 34.83 |
| 2. | Logano, Joey | 31.38 |
| 3. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 31.00 |
| 4. | Larson, Kyle | 30.11 |
| 5. | Hamlin, Denny | 29.26 |
| 6. | Busch, Kurt | 27.87 |
| 7. | Bowman, Alex | 25.65 |
| 8. | Blaney, Ryan | 25.60 |
| 9. | Keselowski, Brad | 25.32 |
| 10. | Harvick, Kevin | 25.23 |
| 11. | Allmendinger, AJ | 23.89 |
| 12. | Busch, Kyle | 20.72 |
| 13. | Byron, William | 20.07 |
| 14. | Bell, Christopher | 19.51 |
| 15. | Briscoe, Chase | 19.03 |
| 16. | Reddick, Tyler | 17.67 |
| 17. | Chastain, Ross | 13.46 |
| 18. | Dillon, Austin | 13.12 |
| 19. | Buescher, Chris | 09.93 |
| 20. | DiBenedetto, Matt | 03.93 |
| 21. | McDowell, Michael | -08.59 |
| 22. | Almirola, Aric | -09.09 |
| 23. | Jones, Erik | -12.01 |
| 24. | Custer, Cole | -13.91 |
| 25. | Preece, Ryan | -14.36 |
| 26. | Suarez, Daniel | -15.79 |
| 27. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | -21.70 |
| 28. | LaJoie, Corey | -23.76 |
| 29. | Newman, Ryan | -24.06 |
| 30. | Alfredo, Anthony | -24.81 |
| 31. | Wallace, Bubba | -25.56 |
| 32. | Haley, Justin | -27.47 |
| 33. | Heckert, Scott | -28.72 |
| 34. | Ware, Cody | -29.17 |
| 35. | Hand, Joey | -30.26 |
| 36. | Smithley, Garrett | -31.87 |
| 37. | Bilicki, Josh | -32.56 |
| 38. | Houff, Quin | -33.08 |
| 39. | Hill, Timmy | -39.88 |
