Our final superspeedway race of the season is this weekend with the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. This fact is probably music to the ears of many NASCAR Fantasy players, but there are some people that actually enjoy the randomness that Talladega and Daytona races bring to the table. As usual, make sure you take this week’s algorithm predicted finishing order with a grain of salt; the algorithm is going to favor the stronger superspeedway cars, but anything can happen with these races when it comes to the actual results.
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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Kyle Larson – It’s rare for Kyle Larson to not be ranked inside the top 5 by the algorithm this season, but you’re going to have to scroll a bit to find his name in the predicted finishing order below. The fact of the matter is, Larson’s Achilles heel has always been these superspeedways. If he’s going to stumble in these Playoffs, it’s more than likely going to be here at Talladega on Sunday. He’s finished 20th or worse in five of the last seven superspeedway races and has never had a top 5 finish in a points-paying race at Daytona or Talladega in 28 career attempts.
Martin Truex, Jr. – Another Playoff driver that could stumble a bit on Sunday and really have to rely on a good run at the Charlotte ROVAL next weekend is my boy, Martin Truex, Jr., in the #19 Toyota. When it comes to superspeedway races, Truex probably has even worse luck than Larson does; MTJ has finished 20th or worse in 12 of the last 14 races at Daytona and Talladega and hasn’t ended up better than 20th here at Talladega specifically since the 2016 season.
YellaWood 500 at Talladega Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Hamlin, Denny | 30.14 |
| 2. | Blaney, Ryan | 27.12 |
| 3. | Elliott, Chase | 26.82 |
| 4. | Harvick, Kevin | 25.60 |
| 5. | Keselowski, Brad | 25.22 |
| 6. | Logano, Joey | 23.08 |
| 7. | Byron, William | 23.07 |
| 8. | Busch, Kyle | 20.77 |
| 9. | Dillon, Austin | 19.21 |
| 10. | Wallace, Bubba | 17.53 |
| 11. | Chastain, Ross | 17.10 |
| 12. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | 16.47 |
| 13. | Custer, Cole | 16.28 |
| 14. | Preece, Ryan | 15.91 |
| 15. | Bell, Christopher | 10.20 |
| 16. | Buescher, Chris | 09.11 |
| 17. | McDowell, Michael | 07.99 |
| 18. | Reddick, Tyler | 07.36 |
| 19. | Briscoe, Chase | 07.00 |
| 20. | Bowman, Alex | 04.93 |
| 21. | Larson, Kyle | 04.44 |
| 22. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 00.10 |
| 23. | DiBenedetto, Matt | -01.62 |
| 24. | Almirola, Aric | -02.53 |
| 25. | Busch, Kurt | -02.92 |
| 26. | Newman, Ryan | -03.80 |
| 27. | LaJoie, Corey | -04.36 |
| 28. | Jones, Erik | -05.93 |
| 29. | Haley, Justin | -11.64 |
| 30. | Suarez, Daniel | -15.96 |
| 31. | Cassill, Landon | -17.82 |
| 32. | Alfredo, Anthony | -19.23 |
| 33. | Allgaier, Justin | -22.12 |
| 34. | McLeod, BJ | -25.76 |
| 35. | Smithley, Garrett | -28.02 |
| 36. | Ware, Cody | -28.44 |
| 37. | Gase, Joey | -29.89 |
| 38. | Bilicki, Josh | -32.25 |
| 39. | Houff, Quin | -32.67 |
| 40. | Davison, James | -36.86 |
