The Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is this weekend. This is the longest race of the season and once the first two Stages are over with I can guarantee that you’ll be saying, “this thing is only half over!?” With that in mind, we’ll see the track change a bit as it shifts from evening into night and will likely see who is fast change as well (at least slightly). Charlotte is the third low-wear 1.5-mile track race of the 2021 season (Las Vegas and Kansas were the others) and the fifth with the 550hp intermediate package (Atlanta and Homestead added to the other two).
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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Ryan Blaney – The algorithm has Ryan Blaney ranked 10th for Sunday’s Coke 600 but he really has quite a bit more potential than that. In the 550hp intermediate package this season, Blaney has the 5th-best average running position and in the two low-wear 1.5-mile races this year he ranks 4th in that statistic. Additionally, Young Ryan Blaney ranks 3rd in average running position over the last three Charlotte races overall, and he finished 3rd in each of them last season. Don’t be surprised if the #12 Ford challenges for a top 5 finish on Sunday night.
Michael McDowell – If you need a sleeper pick this weekend, Michael McDowell is a great option. I was a bit surprised when I checked the algorithm and it had McDowell ranked 21st, but when I checked into the statistics a bit, it makes sense; MM has four teens finishes in his last seven starts here at Charlotte, and in the 550hp intermediate package this year, he has an average finish of 13.8 and an average running position of 17.9 over four races.
Charlotte Coca-Cola 600 Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Larson, Kyle | 36.61 |
| 2. | Keselowski, Brad | 34.57 |
| 3. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 34.48 |
| 4. | Elliott, Chase | 33.26 |
| 5. | Hamlin, Denny | 33.14 |
| 6. | Byron, William | 33.05 |
| 7. | Busch, Kyle | 33.01 |
| 8. | Harvick, Kevin | 30.72 |
| 9. | Logano, Joey | 28.49 |
| 10. | Blaney, Ryan | 26.78 |
| 11. | Bowman, Alex | 26.66 |
| 12. | Dillon, Austin | 24.54 |
| 13. | Reddick, Tyler | 22.28 |
| 14. | Bell, Christopher | 22.11 |
| 15. | DiBenedetto, Matt | 19.58 |
| 16. | Busch, Kurt | 18.86 |
| 17. | Buescher, Chris | 12.04 |
| 18. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | 10.84 |
| 19. | Chastain, Ross | 06.89 |
| 20. | Suarez, Daniel | -01.09 |
| 21. | McDowell, Michael | -03.07 |
| 22. | Newman, Ryan | -03.98 |
| 23. | Almirola, Aric | -09.64 |
| 24. | Custer, Cole | -12.90 |
| 25. | Wallace, Bubba | -17.51 |
| 26. | Briscoe, Chase | -18.52 |
| 27. | Preece, Ryan | -20.28 |
| 28. | Jones, Erik | -21.37 |
| 29. | LaJoie, Corey | -25.61 |
| 30. | Alfredo, Anthony | -27.22 |
| 31. | Haley, Justin | -29.94 |
| 32. | McLeod, BJ | -38.87 |
| 33. | Ware, Cody | -40.13 |
| 34. | Smithley, Garrett | -40.64 |
| 35. | Houff, Quin | -40.68 |
| 36. | Bilicki, Josh | -43.25 |
| 37. | Davison, James | -44.16 |
| 38. | Starr, David | -45.28 |
