By Jordan McAbee
This week’s strategy for the NASCAR.com Fantasy Live game is going to be similar to last week’s (and our strategy in the FOX Fantasy Auto game): we’re loading up on the “heavy hitters.” We’re scheduled to run 312 laps here at Phoenix International Raceway, which means there’s 156 points up for grabs for both laps led and fastest laps. Now the question becomes who is going to be the driver that will capture the majority of those. There are only a few drivers that are capable of doing that–in our opinion–and it’s possible to put together a NASCAR.com Fantasy Live roster with all three. We’re looking ahead a little bit more, though, and will only be taking two of the three. You can read more about that below.
Last week at Las Vegas, we had a pretty rough result in this game thanks to Matt Kenseth. However, you’re going to have a few of those throughout the 36-race Sprint Cup season, so it’s best to just shake it off and move on. This week at Phoenix is not the week to throw a hail mary and try and make up any lost points. The races here are typically very predictable and there aren’t many surprises, so I wouldn’t recommend getting “cute.”
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Picks for Phoenix
Kyle Busch ($28.00) – The highest-priced driver in this game is also going to be one of the best choices for the Good Sam 500, even considering the fact that he starts on the pole. That’s a major risk for fantasy owners because you lose points on place differential with Fantasy Live as well. However, I’m willing to take the risk. We know the #18 Toyota has speed, and when you combine that with the fact that Kyle Busch starts on the pole, there’s a good chance he could lead the most laps on Sunday, too. It’s also worth noting that each of the last five Phoenix pole winners went on to finish in the top 5. Rowdy was 5th in ten-lap average in both Practice #2 and Happy Hour on Saturday and should be a threat to win the race on Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson ($26.50) – We have JJ locked in at $26.50 right now and we really don’t want to lose that. Therefore, we’re sticking with the #48 Chevrolet despite the fact that, on the surface, it looks like an incredibly risky move with the potential to lose a bunch of points. I mean, just at the start of the race, Jimmie is going to be giving us NEGATIVE 30-something points because he’s still going to be credited with the 5th-place starting spot thanks to where he qualified before hitting the wall. However, as I said, we’re willing to take that risk to make our cap situation a little better next week. Jimmie has finished 6th or better in four of the last six Phoenix races, including a 5th-place result here last fall. He was 9th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, and the great cars should be able to easily make their way through the field on Sunday no matter where they start.
Kevin Harvick ($27.75) – Harvick’s 18th-place qualifying effort may scare some people away, but don’t fall for that trap. The #4 Chevrolet is, as expected, one of the best cars in the field and will be a threat to win on Sunday. If anything, it’s almost a good thing that Kevin is starting mid-pack because that’s just more fantasy points for us. Harvick has finished 1st or 2nd in all but one of the Phoenix races ran over the last four years and has the car to keep that streak alive this weekend. Harvick ranked 14th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday but you have to realize that he ran that from laps 23 to 32 while the rest of the drivers on that chart ran their long run from laps 1 through 10 or so. Go with Harvick, you won’t regret it.
Ty Dillon ($12.25) – In order to afford the drivers above, you need to pick one of these mid-priced drivers, and Ty Dillon is probably the best option. If he can keep his fenders clean on Sunday, he might be able to come away with a top 20 finish in the Good Sam 500, and that’s going to be pretty good in this game considering Dillon qualified 28th. Ty was 14th on the overall speed chart in the Saturday morning practice session, and while those track conditions aren’t really like what we’re going to see in the race on Sunday, it was still nice to see some speed out of the #14 Chevrolet.
Joey Gase ($5.00) – In order for this roster to work, you’re going to have to pick between three drivers: Joey Gase, Cole Whitt, and Josh Wise. I decided to take Gase because he’s in the #32 Ford and Jeffrey Earnhardt finished 33rd in this car last week at Las Vegas. You can pick whoever you want, there’s not going to be much differential in terms of fantasy points between these guys. For what it’s worth, Joey Gase is being credited with the last-place starting spot of 39th for the Good Sam 500 Phoenix race.
Race Winner Pick: Kevin Harvick
Manufacturer Pick: Chevrolet
Another roster we love: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ty Dillon, Josh Wise (total salary = $100.00)
