Atlanta Motor Speedway is a driver’s race track. There’s some major fall off with the tires here, and that means driver talent is going to come into play more than usual on Sunday. A driver that can conserve their tires and be fast throughout an entire race run will be much better off than a driver who gets a fast start and then has nothing left halfway through the run. Because of this, it’s not uncommon to see drivers who didn’t qualify very well, finish up front in the end–and those are the ones that need to be on your FOX Fantasy Auto roster.
My team points last week: 248
Overall team standings: 109th
Total team points for the season: 248
Top FOX Fantasy Auto Drivers for the 2017 Atlanta Race
Jimmie Johnson ($11,100) – Must. Own. Not only is Jimmie Johnson under-valued at $11,100 in the FOX Fantasy Auto game this week, but he’s also going to be one of the highest-scoring drivers on Sunday if the race goes like it should. Johnson is a five-time winner here at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and that includes this race last year as well as in 2015. What’s impressive is that Jimmie started from 19th and 37th in those two races. This weekend, the #48 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 18th when the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 goes green, but don’t be surprised if JJ is up there inside the top 5 within the first 75 laps. Johnson is going to be on over 50% of FOX rosters this weekend, but this is one of those situations where it’s better to go with the flow rather than try and be different and hope he wrecks out. The #48 Chevrolet wasn’t blistering fast during Saturday’s Happy Hour practice session but will be there at the end on Sunday.
Kurt Busch ($11,400) – As long as you can fit his high salary into your lineup, Kurt Busch is a nice off-sequence pick in FOX Fantasy Auto on Sunday. Believe it or not, the Daytona 500 champion has the best average finish over the last eight races here at Atlanta (6.4), although Kurt did miss the 2015 race due to suspension. Still, five finishes of 6th or better in his last seven starts here is pretty impressive, and that includes Busch’s win here back in 2010–which was his third career victory at Atlanta. This weekend, the #41 Ford just missed out on the final round of qualifying and will start 13th on Sunday. As far as practice goes, the #41 Ford was 3rd-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday with the 20th-best ten-lap average. Less than 20% of FOX Fantasy Auto players had Kurt Busch in their lineup as of Saturday morning, so, as I said before, he makes a great off-sequence fantasy pick this weekend.
Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – This game is all about capitalizing on place differential points, but sometimes you have to be a little safe and go for the finish points, too. Brad Keselowski qualified 5th for Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 and during Happy Hour on Saturday he said this might be the best car he’s ever had here. With that being said, in eight career starts at the track, Kez has posted just one top 5 finish and an average result of 20.3. However, over the last couple of years, Keselowski has posted back-to-back finishes of 9th here at Atlanta. The best part about BK in the FOX Fantasy Auto game this weekend is that he is right on the lower edge of the high-priced drivers this week, so if he fits into your roster with his $10,300 salary, he shouldn’t be a terrible Fantasy NASCAR pick on Sunday.
Matt Kenseth ($11,300) – Matt Kenseth was only 14th-fastest on the Happy Hour speed chart, but that’s actually kind of impressive because he was one of those drivers that made his first lap later in the session. The #20 Toyota was also 17th in terms of ten-lap average during that practice, which ranked 5th among drivers that made that longer run later in the session. So, in other words, he should have a pretty good car here at Atlanta on Sunday. And the reason he should be on your list of drivers to target for the FOX Fantasy Auto game is because he qualified back in 16th on Friday. That means even a 10th-place finish out of Kenseth this weekend will net fantasy owners 37 points in this game. Over the last five Atlanta races, Matt has an average finish of 9.4 and he has finished inside the top 10 in ten of the last fifteen races overall here. He’s a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend that might get overlooked (only 18% of FOX Fantasy Auto teams have him as of Saturday afternoon).
Other viable options: Kasey Kahne, Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, A.J. Allmendinger, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Stay away from…
Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – If I’m going to pony up over $10,000 of my precious cap space for one driver, he or she better be a surefire pick that weekend. Denny Hamlin couldn’t be anything further from that. Now, he’s definitely had some good runs here at Atlanta in the past–including a win back in 2012–but the fact of the matter is that Hamlin has averaged a finish of 18th here over the course of seventeen starts and has posted just three top 5 finishes over that span (17.6%). The #11 Toyota will roll off the grid from 10th when Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 goes green on Sunday, and while there is a little bit of room for place differential points there, you’d be better off going with someone like Chase Elliott ($11,200) or Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,600) instead of Hamlin.
Clint Bowyer ($7,400) – After qualifying 25th on Friday, Clint Bowyer’s ownership in the FOX Fantasy Auto game went up quite a bit, and as of Saturday morning, he was on 23.6% of teams in this game. However, you shouldn’t fall for the trap. Quite simply, Clint Bowyer just isn’t very good at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with a career average finish of 22.1 over sixteen total starts and not a single top 5 result. Clint does have five top 10 finishes to his credit here, but the last one came during the 2010 season while he was still with Richard Childress Racing. For what it’s worth, I’d like Bowyer as an off-sequence pick in this game if he wasn’t on so many rosters, but nearly 1-in-4 is too high. If the #14 Ford ends up with a good finish here on Sunday, it’s going to be more due to luck than anything.
