Phoenix International Raceway is a pretty unique 1-mile track that was completely repaved and reconfigured in the middle of the 2011 season. So when analyzing historical data here, there’s really no reason to look past the 2011 November race. During a “normal” event here at Phoenix, there’s not a whole lot of passing that goes on, so as far as the FOX Fantasy Auto strategy this weekend, we recommend putting a little more emphasis than usual on finish points. In this race last season, six of the top seven finishers started 11th or better, and in the 2014 fall race at Phoenix, all of the top 7 finishes qualified inside the top 10.
Thanks to Chase Elliott’s sickness last week at Texas, we made a last-minute change with our FOX Fantasy Auto roster. We still ended up with 233 points at Texas 2, but those 257 points with our initial roster would have been much nicer. With two races left in the season we are 294th overall and 3rd in our private league.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Phoenix 2 Can-Am 500(k)
Kevin Harvick ($13,600) – There isn’t a more “sure” pick than Kevin Harvick at Phoenix. He has something figured out about this track that nobody else does, and even though the rest of the Sprint Cup field have been getting closer to de-throning Harvick in the desert, he’s still the heavy favorite to win this weekend’s race. As far as his viability in the FOX Fantasy Auto game, Harvick qualified 6th for Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k), so there’s a little bit of room for place differential points there. Because of his record here, however, Harvick is going to be one of the most-owned drivers this week. This presents a nice opportunity to fade him and hope that the #4 Chevrolet has some kind of issue on Sunday, but we really don’t see that happening. In the last six races here at Phoenix, Harvick has won five of them and finished 2nd in the other, which was the rain-shortened race last November. He’s fighting for his championship life here this weekend, and there’s not many other drivers that perform as well under pressure as “The Closer.”
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,300) – Must. Own. The #78 team had some issues with their backup car during inspection and because of that they never made it on to the race track to complete a qualifying run. Therefore, Truex is going to start dead last on Sunday. And unless he gets into a wreck or something, Martin should easily make it up into the top 15. In other words, we’re looking at at least a 40+ points day out of Truex. He’s never really been great here at Phoenix, but the alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing should help him continue to improve. Truex hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the last four races at this track, and even though he has a whole bunch of work to do thanks to starting dead last, we don’t see that changing this weekend. Martin Truex, Jr. is an absolute must own in FOX Fantasy Auto this weekend. As of this article, only 32% of teams had him on there, but we expect that to increase quite a bit before the Can-Am 500(k) goes green.
Kyle Busch ($10,900) – Kevin Harvick is fighting for his championship life this weekend and so is Kyle Busch. And unfortunately the driver of the #18 Toyota didn’t get off on the right foot this weekend, as Rowdy will roll off the grid from 19th when Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k) goes green. We’re not too worried about his ability to get to the front, though. Kyle Busch started on the pole when we last raced here at Phoenix back in March and ended up with a 4th-place finish, and in this race one year ago, Rowdy also finished 4th after qualifying 10th. If you look at this year’s Chase, Kyle Busch has actually been one of the most consistent performers, and he’s finished 6th or better in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races overall. The #18 Toyota was 14th-best in ten-lap average during Practice #2 on Saturday and ranked 13th on that chart in Happy Hour. If Rowdy can get another top 5 finish here on Sunday, we’re looking at a 50+ points day out of him–and at a relatively cheap price.
Alex Bowman ($5,000) – If you look at the last six races here at Phoenix International Raceway, there have been a grand total of two different cars in victory lane: Kevin Harvick’s #4 Chevrolet, and this #88 Chevrolet that Alex Bowman is driving in replace of Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Now, Junior went to victory lane in this race one year ago, but it was helped a lot by rain. Still, a win is a win. As far as this weekend goes, those drivers who qualify up front tend to finish up there as well (as we said before) and nobody is in a better position to start the Can-Am 500(k) than Alex Bowman, who won the pole for it on Friday. Finding speed in the #88 Chevrolet hasn’t been the problem for Bowman this season, the issue has been putting together a whole race and getting a finish. Taking a shot with him in the FOX Fantasy Auto game this weekend is much less risky than other leagues, as this game doesn’t penalize you for negative place differential. We’d be happy with a top 12 finish out of Bowman on Sunday, and he has the car to do that. The #88 Chevrolet was very impressive during Happy Hour on Saturday and actually had the best ten-lap average.
Kurt Busch ($10,100) – You could jump down and grab Carl Edwards (who qualified 11th) in this spot, and we still might. But right now we’re leaning Kurt Busch to fill out this weekend’s FOX Fantasy Auto roster. Kurt needs a win if he wants to fight for the championship in Homestead next weekend, and while we don’t see him getting to victory lane in the desert on Sunday, a top 10 finish is well within reach for this #41 team. Don’t forget that his teammate, Kevin Harvick, has been absolutely dominant here over the last few years, and Kurt Busch actually hasn’t been too shabby, either; Busch is currently on a four-race streak of top 10 finishes at Phoenix International Raceway, and he has posted six top 10s in the last eight races overall here. The #41 Chevrolet qualified 12th for this weekend’s Can-Am 500(k), so a 7th-place finish out of Kurt on Sunday would net owners 39 fantasy points in FOX Fantasy Auto.
