One of the most anticipated races of the season is this weekend, as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Indianapolis Motor Speedway (“The Brickyard”) for the Crown Royal Presents the Combat Wounded Coalition 400. When it comes to races at these big flat tracks, there’s not much comparison to go off of. We only visit Indianapolis once a year, so there’s not a lot of history either. And while some people may thing qualifying matters at this 2.5-mile track, it doesn’t. Over the last five years, an average of two top 5 qualifiers finished inside the top 10 per race, so that means one thing: there’s definitely room for place differential points this weekend.
Thanks to Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and Jamie McMurray, our Fantasy Racing Online FOX Fantasy Auto team had a pretty good score at Loudon last weekend (213 points). We now sit in 1,015th place overall and 4th in our private group. Hopefully we can crack the top 1,000 overall this weekend before heading back to Pocono next week.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Indy Brickyard Combat Wounded Coalition 400
Jimmie Johnson ($8,600) – We had the #48 Chevrolet pegged as one of our potential winners after Friday’s practice sessions, and then when Jimmie failed to make the final round of qualifying, he quickly became a “for sure” pick in this FOX Fantasy Auto game. And at a price point of $8,600? Absolutely. Johnson will roll off the grid from 13th for Sunday’s Crown Royal Presents the Combat Wounded Coalition 400, but he has a car that can easily contend for at least a top 5 finish. In Practice #1 on Friday, the #48 Chevrolet was on top of the speed chart, and in Happy Hour it ranked 7th with the 4th-best ten-lap average. Jimmie is a four-time winner here at The Brickyard but is actually pretty hit or miss (six top 10s in fourteen career starts). Yes, this #48 team has just one top 10 finish since April, but that is going to end soon, and we think it’s going to be this weekend at Indianapolis.
Jeff Gordon ($5,000) – You had to know at this price point that Jeff Gordon would be one of the most popular picks this weekend. Before qualifying started, he was on nearly 40% of FOX Fantasy Auto teams. Now that qualifying is over and he will start 21st on Sunday, we expect that number to increase. Jeff Gordon is a must-pick in allocation Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, and with his mid-pack starting spot, he just because a near must-start in all leagues that award points on place differential, too. The #88 Chevrolet was 9th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then wound up 25th on the Happy Hour speed chart when they were focusing on race runs. Gordon has a good enough race car to finish inside the top 10 on Sunday, but we have no idea how he’s going to be in those long race conditions. He’s only been out of a race car for half a season, but that’s still quite a while. Jeff definitely knows how to get around his home track of Indianapolis Motor Speedway, though: in the last nine races here, Gordon has finished inside the top 10 seven times, including his win here in 2014.
Joey Logano ($10,200) – One of the more disappointing race cars of the weekend has been this #22 Ford. Logano was 19th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then bumped it up to just 11th-best in the Happy Hour practice session. In qualifying he ended up 14th, though, which is the reason he’s making our roster (probably). Joey has been one of the more solid Fantasy NASCAR picks here at The Brickyard in recent years, with three straight finishes of 8th or better, including top 5s in the last two. We saw last week–once again, it’s been happening all season–that this #22 team is masterful at adjusting on the car during the race and being there at the end, and that’s what we’re hoping happens in Indianapolis on Sunday as well. If we do end up dropping Logano from our roster this week, it will probably be in favor for something that we’re trying to simply get finish points from (like Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin). If we make that change we will update this post.
EDIT: We’re swapping out Joey Logano for Kyle Busch today.
Matt Kenseth ($10,600) – This is a pick that we’re not 100% confident with, but it’s too good to pass up. The #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 18th for Sunday afternoon’s Crown Royal Presents the Combat Wounded Coalition 400, and if Matt Kenseth is able to get up inside the top 7 before the checkered flag waves–which he has done in four of the last five races here–that means we’re looking at a bunch of points in this FOX Fantasy Auto game. Now, the reason we’re not totally confident that Kenseth will be able to get up there is because of how mediocre the #20 Toyota was in practice on Friday (and then qualifying on Saturday). One question you have to ask there is whether the team was just testing, though, because the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing fleet is super fast heading into the race. We’re willing to “roll the dice,” if you want to call it that, and hope that’s the case with Kenseth this weekend. It’s just too hard to pass up that 18th-place starting spot and all of those potential place differential points.
Kevin Harvick ($13,600) – Because of Jeff Gordon’s super low salary this weekend, it’s really easy to afford the over-priced Kevin Harvick. The #4 Chevrolet is going to roll off the grid from 7th for Sunday’s race at The Brickyard, so there’s a little room for place differential points here. Harvick should be a contender for the win on Sunday, but at this point you have to question whether or not this pit crew is holding him back. Kevin finally made some public comments about his pit crew after the Loudon race last week, and hopefully that lights a fire under their ass. Until they improve, though, we just don’t see Harvick winning another race. Pit stops are a big part of these races and they are hurting him every single week. Harvick has finished 3rd and 8th here at Indianapolis over the last two years and should have a similar race here on Sunday.
Looking for a “off-sequence” drivers? Here’s two:
Paul Menard ($6,800) – There are two tracks on the circuit right now where Paul Menard is a very safe Fantasy NASCAR pick. One of those is Michigan, and the other is Indianapolis. In five of the last six Sprint Cup races here he’s finished 14th or better, and that includes his win on fuel mileage back in the 2011 Brickyard race. The reason that Paul Menard makes a solid “off-sequence” pick in FOX Fantasy Auto this weekend is because he starts 23rd on Sunday, which means that if he is able to get up there to his normal 14th-place finishing position, that’s a nice 36 points from a driver with a relatively low handicap. If you want to go against the masses of people taking Jeff Gordon this weekend, Paul Menard is probably your next best low-dollar option.
Kasey Kahne ($8,600) – Kasey Kahne was one of the few “big name” drivers to get eliminated from qualifying after the first round on Saturday. He’ll start Sunday’s race at The Brickyard from 26th, which means there’s some definite room for place differential points this weekend. Believe it or not, Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of Kasey’s best on the circuit. He owns an average finish of 14.3 here over twelve career starts and has finished inside the top 10 in half of those. He typically qualifies a lot better, but with how this #5 team has been running lately, we’re not overly concerned with picking Kahne. He was 11th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and ranked 20th on the Happy Hour speed chart with the 5th-best ten-lap average. We are by no means expecting a top 10 run out of Kasey on Sunday, but if he can manage to finish 15th, that’s 37 points in this FOX Fantasy Auto game. Another nice aspect of picking him? As of this writing, less than 5% of teams owned Kahne.
