Up next for the NASCAR Cup Series is the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. This track is a “low-wear” 1.5-mile venue, just like the race at Texas last weekend. So in case some of the content or projections below look similar to last week’s, you know why! Anyway, we’ve had one race here at Kansas this season (back in May) and it should be a pretty cut and dry race on Sunday. One thing to note is that weather may play a factor, as there are scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. If this turns into a Sunday night race, it should benefit the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas a little bit.
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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Kansas on Sunday afternoon according to my Projections is:
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
- Tyler Reddick
- Alex Bowman
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Confidence Rating = 7.4/10. This isn’t a bad lineup if we get one main dominator (Larson) once again this weekend. That’s certainly the most likely scenario in my head, but you never know what may happen once the green flag waves. Interestingly, the 2nd-highest-projected lineup for Sunday’s race is: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Alex Bowman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. I don’t hate either…
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Kansas 2 (Cash Lineups)
Kevin Harvick ($9,500) – Kevin Harvick hasn’t been the 2020 version of himself this season, that’s for sure, but that doesn’t mean he’s been awful. In the five races on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Harvick has four top 10 finishes and two top 5s–one here at Kansas and the other one at Texas just a week ago. At just under $10,000 on FanDuel, and starting 11th, Harvick is a pretty safe Fantasy NASCAR play on Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400. His average running position on this track type this season is 9th-best in the series, and in the 550hp package, he owns the 6th-best average finish (8.9) over those 11 races.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($5,800) – Stenhouse was a “safe” cash play in my article for Texas last weekend as well, and we all know how that turned out. But barring another pileup on the backstretch, Stenhouse should be a great value play here at Kansas on Sunday. He’s finished 16th, 16th, and 20th in the last three fall Kansas races, and has ended up between 11th and 17th in three of the five “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season. In the 550hp package, Ricky has finished inside the top 15 in six of the eleven races this year. We just have to hope there’s no carnage…
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Kansas 2 (Tournament Lineups)
Denny Hamlin ($13,500) – Joe Gibbs Racing laid an egg last week at Texas. None of their cars had great speed, and then most of them got caught up in incidents as well. Now why am I mentioning last week, you may ask? Recency bias is a pretty big factor in many NASCAR Fantasy players’ minds, but you shouldn’t let that affect yours. Denny Hamlin could have four straight wins here at Kansas Speedway if he didn’t run into a little bad luck the last two races. He’s led 57 or more laps in three of the last four at this track, and has the 2nd-most laps led on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season behind Kyle Larson. I don’t mind Hamlin as a pivot off of Larson here on FanDuel this weekend, or maybe even in combination with if you’re feeling frisky.
Ryan Blaney ($11,000) – Most FanDuel DFS players are going to first pop in Kyle Larson ($14,500) into their lineup for Kansas–and rightfully so, the guy has been absolutely dominant on this track type this year. But once you have the pole sitter in a DFS lineup, it goes against conventional wisdom to play the 2nd-place starter as well. However, that’s what makes Blaney a “risky” tournament play. In three of the five “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races this season, the #12 Ford has come home 6th or better, and here at Kansas specifically he’s finished 4th or better in 12 of the last 18 Stage break cautions. If Blaney can lead some laps here on Sunday he can definitely make it into the optimal lineup at his $11,000 price tag.
FanDuel Driver Projections for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $14,500 | 75.47 | 1 | 87.80 | $192 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,500 | 71.13 | 6 | 77.80 | $190 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,000 | 70.53 | 4 | 79.20 | $184 |
| William Byron | $11,500 | 66.70 | 9 | 70.70 | $172 |
| Chase Elliott | $12,500 | 65.85 | 5 | 78.70 | $190 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,000 | 65.00 | 2 | 82.20 | $169 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,500 | 60.95 | 11 | 64.50 | $156 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,000 | 60.05 | 3 | 68.30 | $167 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,000 | 59.70 | 25 | 66.70 | $151 |
| Tyler Reddick | $9,200 | 59.65 | 12 | 70.40 | $154 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 | 57.50 | 7 | 64.50 | $183 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 56.15 | 8 | 63.50 | $175 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,200 | 55.70 | 14 | 61.70 | $147 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,800 | 55.10 | 28 | 66.70 | $105 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,800 | 54.95 | 10 | 65.50 | $160 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,500 | 54.20 | 13 | 59.50 | $157 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,000 | 53.70 | 15 | 61.70 | $149 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 52.60 | 21 | 58.70 | $127 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,200 | 52.10 | 27 | 60.20 | $119 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,500 | 48.50 | 31 | 56.20 | $113 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,300 | 46.85 | 19 | 60.70 | $156 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,500 | 45.75 | 24 | 57.20 | $164 |
| Erik Jones | $6,500 | 45.35 | 17 | 56.70 | $143 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,000 | 45.10 | 16 | 60.70 | $155 |
| Ryan Preece | $5,000 | 44.90 | 32 | 55.20 | $111 |
| Parker Kligerman | $4,500 | 43.80 | 40 | 48.70 | $103 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,700 | 43.00 | 20 | 47.70 | $179 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,300 | 42.50 | 18 | 51.20 | $125 |
| Cole Custer | $6,000 | 41.90 | 22 | 48.70 | $143 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,000 | 39.80 | 29 | 47.70 | $101 |
| Corey LaJoie | $5,000 | 38.05 | 23 | 46.20 | $131 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 35.85 | 36 | 39.20 | $84 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 35.70 | 33 | 37.70 | $98 |
| Quin Houff | $3,500 | 34.00 | 35 | 38.70 | $103 |
| Joey Gase | $2,000 | 31.05 | 39 | 37.70 | $64 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 30.10 | 26 | 37.20 | $83 |
| Ryan Ellis | $2,000 | 29.05 | 34 | 33.70 | $69 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,500 | 28.80 | 30 | 34.70 | $87 |
| David Starr | $2,000 | 28.50 | 38 | 35.70 | $70 |
| Chad Finchum | $3,000 | 27.25 | 37 | 33.70 | $110 |
