The South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway kicks off Round 2 of the Playoffs this weekend, and Kyle Larson will lead the field to the green on Sunday night. Larson is obviously coming off of a win at Bristol one week ago, and he’s also the defending winner here at Las Vegas. As far as similar tracks to look at, you’re going to want to focus on “low wear” 1.5-mile venues. This season, those races have been: the first Vegas race, the Kansas race, and the Charlotte race. The cars are running the 550hp package this weekend, so you can kind of throw a few more races into the data set if you’d like (see my DFS video on YouTube for an explanation on that).
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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Las Vegas Sunday night according to my Projections is:
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
- Kurt Busch
- Austin Dillon
- Chris Buescher
Confidence Rating = 6.8/10. The major weakness with this lineup comes with the potential for a surprise dominator, because three of the five drivers on there are relying on place differential and hopefully a finish inside the top 10 or top 15. If Kyle Larson leads a significant portion of this race, which is what is expected, then this lineup should be pretty solid, but if for some reason the #5 team slips a bit and doesn’t nail the setup, that makes this lineup vulnerable. One interesting note: the 3rd-highest lineup according to my projections is: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Las Vegas 2 (Cash Lineups)
Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – For some reason, Team Penske just has this place figured out. Brad Keselowski has finished 7th or better in 11 of the last 12 Las Vegas races, and in seven of those he finished on the podium (top 3). He also has three wins here over that timespan. This season, Keselowski has lost some speed as the year has gone by, but this race could be just what the doctor ordered for this #2 team. Remember, Kez ended up 2nd in the first Vegas race of 2021, and at Kansas (another “low wear” 1.5-miler, he finished 3rd. If BK can finish top 3 again here on Sunday night, he’ll be a great value in FanDuel at only $9,700 salary.
Chris Buescher ($7,000) – At only $7,000 on FanDuel, Chris Buescher is a smash value play this weekend at Las Vegas. Looking at track history here, he’s finished 18th or better in each of the last seven races in Sin City, with five of those seven finishes being inside the top 15 (as well as a 9th-place result in the Playoff race last season). When you shift over to similar races this season, Buescher ended up 14th in the first Vegas race, 8th at Kansas, and then 8th at Charlotte. He hasn’t finished worse than 20th in the 550hp package this year, and it doesn’t look like that is going to change on Sunday night.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Las Vegas 2 (Tournament Lineups)
Chase Elliott ($12,500) – Don’t let Chase Elliott’s career average finish of 20.6 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway scare you away too much, he’s actually really good at this race track, but has just had some bad luck over the years. Looking back to the first race here this season, Chase had one of the best cars early and led 22 laps out of the gate, but got some damage and his day went downhill from there. He’s now led 165 laps here at Las Vegas over the last three races at this track while winning three of the six Stages along the way. He has similar finishing upside as Kyle Busch ($13,500) this weekend and comes at a $1,000 salary discount on FanDuel.
Ryan Blaney ($10,200) – My projections like William Byron ($11,000) a little bit more here, but don’t sleep on Young Ryan Blaney. He’s never won here in Sin City, but it’s only a matter of time. Plus, as I said before, Team Penske, for some reason, just has this place figured out. Over the last nine races here in Vegas, Blaney has finished 7th or better seven times, and three of the last six have been top 5s. Looking back at last year’s “low wear” 1.5-mile data, Blaney had the best average running position (6.2) and 3rd-best average finish (7.7), and in the 550hp package this season, the #12 Ford ranks 7th-best in average running position (10.7) and 6th-best in average finish (9.6). Blaney has race-winning potential on Sunday night.
FanDuel Driver Projections for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $14,500 | 75.57 | 1 | 83.70 | $192 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,500 | 68.12 | 10 | 78.90 | $198 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,000 | 67.13 | 6 | 81.80 | $194 |
| William Byron | $11,000 | 66.10 | 3 | 76.10 | $166 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $12,000 | 65.65 | 4 | 75.30 | $183 |
| Chase Elliott | $12,500 | 65.45 | 11 | 74.20 | $191 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,200 | 62.95 | 2 | 75.00 | $162 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,500 | 60.20 | 5 | 68.70 | $191 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,700 | 59.80 | 8 | 66.30 | $162 |
| Joey Logano | $10,500 | 59.50 | 9 | 66.50 | $176 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 59.20 | 20 | 67.20 | $152 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,000 | 58.35 | 7 | 68.60 | $171 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,200 | 56.20 | 15 | 63.20 | $146 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,500 | 54.70 | 13 | 63.70 | $155 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,000 | 54.60 | 25 | 63.70 | $128 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,500 | 51.45 | 12 | 63.20 | $185 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,000 | 51.45 | 14 | 59.70 | $155 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,700 | 50.85 | 22 | 54.70 | $132 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,700 | 50.35 | 18 | 64.70 | $153 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,500 | 50.10 | 26 | 56.70 | $130 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,500 | 47.90 | 29 | 58.20 | $115 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,200 | 47.35 | 21 | 55.70 | $131 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,000 | 46.25 | 23 | 53.70 | $108 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,200 | 45.85 | 19 | 56.20 | $157 |
| Cole Custer | $5,700 | 45.15 | 28 | 54.70 | $126 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,500 | 43.00 | 17 | 53.70 | $174 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,500 | 42.65 | 24 | 46.70 | $106 |
| Erik Jones | $6,000 | 42.50 | 16 | 50.20 | $141 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,000 | 42.30 | 32 | 46.20 | $95 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,500 | 39.80 | 27 | 48.20 | $113 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 38.45 | 33 | 40.70 | $91 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 35.35 | 34 | 36.70 | $71 |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 34.10 | 35 | 37.20 | $73 |
| Quin Houff | $3,000 | 33.00 | 36 | 39.20 | $91 |
| J.J. Yeley | $2,000 | 32.25 | 38 | 35.70 | $62 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 31.35 | 30 | 34.70 | $64 |
| Joey Gase | $2,000 | 30.65 | 37 | 35.20 | $65 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 29.50 | 31 | 35.20 | $102 |
