The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race on Saturday night. This is a 500-lap event, which means there are going to be a total of 50 FanDuel fantasy points available, and you can expect to see those laps led spread out over multiple drivers. Such a long race also means that it’s going to be even more important for your drivers to finish all (or most) of the laps on Saturday night. We did race here at Bristol earlier in the year, but that was on the dirt, so it’s not really relevant. Still, older Bristol data gives us a relatively clear picture of who should be good this weekend. Now let’s get to the FanDuel projections!
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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Bristol Saturday night according to my Projections is:
- Kyle Larson
- Kyle Busch
- Kurt Busch
- Chris Buescher
- Ryan Newman
Confidence Rating = 7.1/10. I don’t mind this lineup at all. You have the two most likely dominators and potential race winners in Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch, as well as Kurt Busch, who could end up challenging for the win as well. The biggest question mark to me with this lineup is Ryan Newman, but you could always go Daniel Suarez instead. If you don’t like Kurt Busch in your lineup, going down to Alex Bowman is a pretty solid choice as well. The highest projected lineup with Bowman the Showman in it is: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Preece.
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Bristol (Cash Lineups)
Kyle Larson ($14,000) – I welcome anyone’s argument as to why you shouldn’t play Kyle Larson in cash this weekend, because I can’t think of one. Looking at other steep tracks this year, Larson has finished 4th or better in all four of those races and has also led the most laps (424). Here at Bristol, he’s finished 6th or better in four of his last six starts along with a 9th-place finish during that three-year span. Larson has also led 62+ laps in four of the last six races in “Thunder Valley,” hitting 200+ in two of them. He’s the most likely driver to dominate here on Saturday night and will contend for the win as well if nothing crazy goes on.
Chris Buescher ($6,000) – The #17 Ford will start from back in 25th here on Saturday night, but there’s legitimate mid-teens finishing upside when it comes to Chris Buescher, and at only $6,000 on FanDuel, that means I have no problem playing him in cash lineups. Buescher finished 8th the last time we raced here at Bristol in the fall, and has ended up 19th or better in each of the last three fall races at this track. Looking at other steep tracks this season, Buescher finished 19th at Homestead, 9th in both Darlington races, and 17th at Dover.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Bristol (Tournament Lineups)
Kurt Busch ($10,000) – Yes, Kurt Busch is listed in the optimal lineup according to my projections, but he doesn’t exactly “pop” in my projections by any means. However, there’s plenty of reasons to be overweight on Kurt Busch in tournaments this weekend. First off, he’s really good at Bristol Motor Speedway. In addition to having six career victories here, Busch also has a healthy 30% top 5 finishing rate at this race track. Also, let’s not forget that the Chip Ganassi cars have been really, really fast lately. If this #1 Chevrolet has the same amount of speed here on Saturday night that we’ve seen it have over the last three months, Kurt could definitely be a significant lap leader in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.
Ross Chastian ($9,500) – Again, these Ganassi cars are super fast right now. Ross Chastain showed legitimate top 5 speed yet again at Richmond last weekend, and has now finished 3rd and 7th in the two Playoff races thus far. He doesn’t have any good finishes here at Bristol in the Cup Series yet, but that’s because he’s never been in good equipment here either. Even with the shitbox cars from Premium Motorsports, Chastain was able to finished 26th, 29th, and 26th in his last three starts in “Thunder Valley,” which is pretty good, all things considered. Melon Man starts 17th on Saturday night but could easily challenge for a top 10 finish.
FanDuel Driver Projections for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $14,000 | 106.28 | 5 | 120.80 | $132 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,500 | 99.00 | 9 | 112.00 | $136 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,000 | 91.17 | 2 | 103.00 | $143 |
| Chase Elliott | $12,500 | 88.92 | 4 | 99.70 | $141 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 88.00 | 8 | 94.00 | $125 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,800 | 87.25 | 7 | 100.00 | $124 |
| Joey Logano | $11,500 | 85.82 | 3 | 94.90 | $134 |
| Kurt Busch | $10,000 | 85.70 | 15 | 96.60 | $117 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,000 | 83.40 | 11 | 94.50 | $108 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,500 | 80.90 | 17 | 92.20 | $117 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,700 | 80.55 | 6 | 91.20 | $120 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,000 | 80.40 | 18 | 84.70 | $100 |
| William Byron | $9,300 | 80.15 | 14 | 88.70 | $116 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,500 | 79.65 | 10 | 87.50 | $132 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,500 | 79.40 | 13 | 93.30 | $107 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $12,000 | 79.15 | 1 | 96.70 | $152 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,200 | 75.55 | 23 | 91.40 | $95 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,800 | 75.55 | 24 | 85.00 | $77 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,000 | 75.30 | 25 | 87.00 | $80 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,300 | 75.05 | 21 | 88.10 | $84 |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,000 | 73.45 | 28 | 85.50 | $95 |
| Aric Almirola | $8,700 | 71.15 | 12 | 77.80 | $122 |
| Ryan Preece | $5,000 | 70.85 | 27 | 88.00 | $71 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,500 | 69.70 | 19 | 74.60 | $108 |
| Erik Jones | $5,500 | 69.20 | 22 | 78.00 | $79 |
| Cole Custer | $6,500 | 68.35 | 26 | 78.50 | $95 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,700 | 67.95 | 20 | 83.00 | $99 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,500 | 66.50 | 31 | 75.00 | $68 |
| Michael McDowell | $4,500 | 60.75 | 16 | 75.20 | $74 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 60.40 | 29 | 68.00 | $58 |
| J.J. Yeley | $2,000 | 59.55 | 35 | 66.50 | $34 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,000 | 59.15 | 30 | 62.50 | $68 |
| Quin Houff | $3,000 | 56.20 | 34 | 61.50 | $53 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 54.95 | 32 | 60.50 | $45 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 54.60 | 36 | 58.00 | $37 |
| David Starr | $2,500 | 54.50 | 38 | 62.00 | $46 |
| James Davison | $2,000 | 54.25 | 37 | 60.00 | $37 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 53.60 | 33 | 58.00 | $56 |
