Welcome to Joe Gibbs Racing Speeday!
Just kidding, obviously, but the fact that that organization has won seven of the last ten races here at Richmond Raceway and has drivers starting 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 10th this weekend puts JGR in a great position to make it eight of eleven on Sunday.
But anyway, Richmond Raceway is a 0.75-mile D-shaped flat track that we visit twice a year, except for last year. Because of all the schedule changes in 2020, the NASCAR Cup Series only stopped by Richmond once, and it was a Penske car in victory lane by the end of the night (Brad Keselowski). Don’t worry, though, Gibbs cars took home 2nd and 6th that night, while Denny Hamlin–who probably had a car capable of winning–came home 12th after speeding on pit road (oh, how things never change). But anyway, let’s get to this Richmond FanDuel breakdown.
Lineup Construction: There are 400 laps in this race, so while we don’t have the 500 we did at Martinsville last weekend, there are still a significant number of laps to be ran here at Richmond on Sunday. A three dominator race wouldn’t be surprising at all here on Sunday, and if you try to squeeze three dominators into a FanDuel lineup, you’ll likely have to dig deep when it comes to selecting the lower drivers. Personally, I like a more central build with your lineup and going with two main dominators and not digging too deep into the player pool.
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2020 Flat Track Statistics
Another flat track this week with Richmond Raceway. This is our third flat track race of the 2021 season, with the other two being Phoenix last month and Martinsville last week. The most comparable track to Richmond is Phoenix, and the other flat track to look at is New Hampshire (or Loudon). Below is a chart of the 2020 data from the flat tracks.
| Driver | Starts | Avg Finish | ARP | DR | FL | LL | T15 | TLaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 6 | 03.0 | 03.9 | 123.6 | 199 | 483 | 2287 | 2329 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6 | 03.7 | 06.5 | 121.0 | 226 | 482 | 2042 | 2329 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 04.0 | 09.9 | 99.5 | 0 | 2 | 274 | 316 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | 04.7 | 05.7 | 120.6 | 266 | 494 | 2228 | 2329 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 08.8 | 10.3 | 104.6 | 159 | 114 | 1862 | 2328 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 6 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 89.1 | 21 | 1 | 1573 | 2328 |
| Kurt Busch | 6 | 10.3 | 09.8 | 89.3 | 22 | 42 | 2104 | 2328 |
| Alex Bowman | 6 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 87.6 | 39 | 1 | 1706 | 2328 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 6 | 11.7 | 07.9 | 104.4 | 169 | 272 | 1985 | 2294 |
| Denny Hamlin | 6 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 90.7 | 137 | 179 | 1424 | 2325 |
| Aric Almirola | 6 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 87.9 | 62 | 28 | 1661 | 2304 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 89.0 | 122 | 76 | 1395 | 2076 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 84.5 | 58 | 9 | 1481 | 2042 |
| William Byron | 6 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 83.6 | 31 | 0 | 1731 | 2266 |
| Cole Custer | 6 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 73.5 | 37 | 0 | 1166 | 2320 |
| Tyler Reddick | 6 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 72.7 | 24 | 0 | 1047 | 2273 |
| Bubba Wallace | 6 | 19.2 | 20.8 | 62.0 | 23 | 0 | 538 | 2323 |
| Ryan Newman | 5 | 19.6 | 17.5 | 64.6 | 11 | 0 | 735 | 2007 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 6 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 63.8 | 40 | 1 | 266 | 2321 |
| Ty Dillon | 6 | 20.7 | 23.9 | 54.5 | 2 | 0 | 112 | 2320 |
| Michael McDowell | 6 | 20.8 | 24.0 | 55.0 | 22 | 0 | 497 | 2322 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | 21.2 | 19.9 | 67.4 | 39 | 0 | 553 | 2319 |
| Erik Jones | 6 | 21.3 | 18.1 | 68.0 | 16 | 0 | 826 | 2319 |
| Austin Dillon | 6 | 21.8 | 19.7 | 66.9 | 93 | 58 | 644 | 2038 |
| Ryan Preece | 6 | 22.2 | 23.2 | 56.8 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 2309 |
| Chris Buescher | 6 | 22.8 | 21.8 | 55.6 | 10 | 1 | 479 | 1970 |
| Ross Chastain | 1 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 64.2 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 316 |
| Daniel Suarez | 6 | 26.8 | 28.2 | 43.5 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 2308 |
| Corey LaJoie | 6 | 28.3 | 23.4 | 51.1 | 13 | 11 | 162 | 2186 |
| Joey Gase | 6 | 33.2 | 35.0 | 29.6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2206 |
| Josh Bilicki | 2 | 33.5 | 35.1 | 30.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 786 |
| James Davison | 4 | 34.0 | 34.1 | 32.0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1407 |
| Quin Houff | 6 | 34.0 | 35.0 | 29.2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2004 |
| Timmy Hill | 6 | 35.5 | 33.9 | 29.9 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1333 |
| Garrett Smithley | 5 | 35.6 | 35.8 | 28.8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1287 |
Also, the table below also has the loop data box scores and Green Flag Speed reports for this year’s Phoenix race as well as last week’s Martinsville race and last year’s Richmond race.
| Race | Loop Data Box Score | Green Flag Speed |
| Phoenix (2021) | Click here | Click here |
| Martinsville (2021) | Click here | Click here |
| Richmond (2020) | Click here | Click here |
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Richmond (Cash Lineups)
Kyle Larson ($11,200) – It’s no secret that I love Kyle Larson this weekend. I wrote an article specifically about him on Monday and grabbing him at 10-to-1 to win while you could, he’s featured in two of my four “Best Bets” for Sunday, plus my algorithm has Larson projected to finish 2nd. On FanDuel, Larson is priced at $11,200 so, yeah, he’s a Cash play in my eyes. Looking at flat tracks this year, Larson could’ve easily dominated at Phoenix if it wasn’t for his inspection penalty and speeding penalties that day, and at Martinsville, the #5 Chevrolet had great speed and came home 5th, which is now Larson’s 2nd-best finish ever at that track. Larson and this team have top 3 speed week in and week out, and he has legitimate dominating potential here at Richmond on Sunday. Five of his last seven starts at this track have been top 7 finishes, and that was before he got in this #5 hot rod…
Austin Cindric ($6,000) – Team Penske and flat tracks are a match made in heaven right now, and while Austin Cindric is starting dead last here on Sunday at Richmond, he has legitimate top 15 upside, which would obviously make him a great FanDuel play at just $6,000 this weekend. Even just a top 20 finish will likely get you what you need from Cindric in a cash lineup on Sunday. This will be Cindric’s third Cup Series start of the season in this #33 Ford and so far he’s finished 15th at Daytona and 22nd at Atlanta. Very respectable results there, and Richmond should be an easier race than Atlanta was. In the Xfinity Series–not that it matters much, but it’s a stat to look at–Cindric has four top 5 finishes in six starts here at Richmond.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Richmond (Tournament Lineups)
Joey Logano ($12,500) – “Risky” probably isn’t the most accurate word here to describe Joey Logano, but his salary on FanDuel makes him a risky play because it’s so high…if that makes sense. Let me explain. The two most likely dominators here on Sunday are Martin Truex, Jr. ($14,000) and Denny Hamlin ($13,000), so by rolling the dice with Logano, you’re going to have to forgo picking at least one of those guys, if not both, because making a FanDuel lineup with that many top 5 starters is risky as hell. But anyway, Logano has upside this weekend. We all know how fast Penske is on flat tracks, and Logano dominated for 143 laps led at Phoenix earlier this year even though he started 9th. Again, Phoenix is the most similar track to Richmond. Speaking of which, Joey has five top 4 finishes in the last seven Richmond races, including a win back in 2017.
Christopher Bell ($9,200) – Another driver I love this week is Christopher Bell. We’ve already seen this #20 Toyota in victory lane once this season, and looking back at Phoenix, it’s noteworthy that Bell came home with a 9th-place finish at had a strong car all day, one, because Phoenix is very similar to Richmond, and two, CBell is just kind of meh at Phoenix. Here at Richmond, Christopher was absolutely dominant in the Xfinity Series and now he has a legitimate Cup car to contend with. Maybe I’m over-estimating this kid but I think he has top 5 finishing potential and some laps led potential as well on Sunday.
Richmond Toyota Owners 400 FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
Also included are “Ceiling” projections for each driver. This is the top possible score projected.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | $14,000 | 91.92 | 1 | 115.50 | $152 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,000 | 89.45 | 2 | 101.90 | $145 |
| Joey Logano | $12,500 | 85.00 | 5 | 102.00 | $147 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,200 | 84.55 | 6 | 105.60 | $132 |
| Brad Keselowski | $13,500 | 84.17 | 20 | 91.30 | $160 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,000 | 77.25 | 24 | 90.10 | $117 |
| Chase Elliott | $11,700 | 75.22 | 3 | 89.30 | $156 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,800 | 75.00 | 9 | 84.10 | $144 |
| Kyle Busch | $12,000 | 73.50 | 10 | 86.60 | $163 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,800 | 73.25 | 17 | 82.90 | $120 |
| William Byron | $9,700 | 72.75 | 4 | 83.20 | $133 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,200 | 71.87 | 8 | 87.90 | $128 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,000 | 70.00 | 16 | 76.10 | $100 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 69.65 | 22 | 75.60 | $112 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,500 | 67.90 | 19 | 78.70 | $110 |
| Austin Cindric | $6,000 | 67.55 | 38 | 79.60 | $89 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,500 | 67.25 | 11 | 87.50 | $126 |
| Erik Jones | $5,700 | 66.15 | 30 | 76.50 | $86 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,300 | 66.15 | 14 | 72.60 | $95 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,200 | 65.75 | 7 | 78.50 | $155 |
| Cole Custer | $6,500 | 64.65 | 21 | 76.50 | $101 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,000 | 62.90 | 13 | 75.50 | $127 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,300 | 62.80 | 27 | 72.70 | $84 |
| Ross Chastain | $4,500 | 60.15 | 18 | 67.50 | $75 |
| Chase Briscoe | $5,000 | 60.05 | 26 | 65.50 | $83 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,000 | 58.80 | 25 | 68.00 | $68 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,500 | 56.95 | 36 | 61.50 | $61 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,800 | 56.30 | 15 | 66.00 | $121 |
| Michael McDowell | $4,500 | 55.05 | 23 | 67.00 | $82 |
| Chris Buescher | $5,000 | 54.55 | 12 | 66.00 | $92 |
| Justin Haley | $3,000 | 53.95 | 34 | 60.50 | $56 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 52.20 | 29 | 61.00 | $67 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 50.10 | 35 | 53.50 | $50 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 47.00 | 37 | 53.00 | $43 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 46.00 | 33 | 49.50 | $65 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 44.50 | 31 | 51.50 | $67 |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 43.15 | 32 | 53.50 | $58 |
| James Davison | $2,000 | 42.50 | 28 | 47.00 | $47 |
