NASCAR is back after the Easter break and we’re kicking things off at Martinsville Speedway with the Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 on Saturday night (hopefully–there’s rain in the forecast). This race kicks off a slew of 17 straight races before the next break the Cup Series drivers (and these teams) get for the Olympics in late July. Typically we see a lot of the same faces finishing up front here at Martinsville and there’s no reason to think that will change majorly this weekend.
Lineup Construction: There are 500 laps in this race, so all five of your drivers finishing on or near the lead lap is going to be very important. That’s 50 FanDuel fantasy points right there just for completing the laps. Those 500 laps also mean that there are 50 FanDuel fantasy points up for grabs when it comes to laps led. Typically at Martinsville we see at least two drivers lead 100+ laps, although in 2019, we saw the winner both lead 400+ laps. As far as lineup construction, my projections love going with three studs, one mid-range guy, and then Ross Chastain since he’s so low-priced. It’s a good idea to have at least three potential dominators in your lineup this weekend.
P.S. Once again, FanDuel has simply followed the sportsbooks when it comes to driver pricing this week. I just have to document it because it’s funny to me.
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2020 Flat Track Statistics
We’re back to a flat track this weekend (and next, for that matter) with Martinsville Speedway. Now, Martinsville is the shortest flat track the Cup Series races at, so we definitely need to look at the loop data specifically here at “The Paperclip” as well, but it doesn’t hurt to look at who performed the best over all of the flat tracks last season. The flat tracks include: Martinsville, New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix.
| Driver | Starts | Avg Finish | ARP | DR | FL | LL | T15 | TLaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 6 | 03.0 | 03.9 | 123.6 | 199 | 483 | 2287 | 2329 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6 | 03.7 | 06.5 | 121.0 | 226 | 482 | 2042 | 2329 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 04.0 | 09.9 | 99.5 | 0 | 2 | 274 | 316 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | 04.7 | 05.7 | 120.6 | 266 | 494 | 2228 | 2329 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 08.8 | 10.3 | 104.6 | 159 | 114 | 1862 | 2328 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 6 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 89.1 | 21 | 1 | 1573 | 2328 |
| Kurt Busch | 6 | 10.3 | 09.8 | 89.3 | 22 | 42 | 2104 | 2328 |
| Alex Bowman | 6 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 87.6 | 39 | 1 | 1706 | 2328 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 6 | 11.7 | 07.9 | 104.4 | 169 | 272 | 1985 | 2294 |
| Denny Hamlin | 6 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 90.7 | 137 | 179 | 1424 | 2325 |
| Aric Almirola | 6 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 87.9 | 62 | 28 | 1661 | 2304 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 89.0 | 122 | 76 | 1395 | 2076 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 84.5 | 58 | 9 | 1481 | 2042 |
| William Byron | 6 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 83.6 | 31 | 0 | 1731 | 2266 |
| Cole Custer | 6 | 16.8 | 17.3 | 73.5 | 37 | 0 | 1166 | 2320 |
| Tyler Reddick | 6 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 72.7 | 24 | 0 | 1047 | 2273 |
| Bubba Wallace | 6 | 19.2 | 20.8 | 62.0 | 23 | 0 | 538 | 2323 |
| Ryan Newman | 5 | 19.6 | 17.5 | 64.6 | 11 | 0 | 735 | 2007 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 6 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 63.8 | 40 | 1 | 266 | 2321 |
| Ty Dillon | 6 | 20.7 | 23.9 | 54.5 | 2 | 0 | 112 | 2320 |
| Michael McDowell | 6 | 20.8 | 24.0 | 55.0 | 22 | 0 | 497 | 2322 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | 21.2 | 19.9 | 67.4 | 39 | 0 | 553 | 2319 |
| Erik Jones | 6 | 21.3 | 18.1 | 68.0 | 16 | 0 | 826 | 2319 |
| Austin Dillon | 6 | 21.8 | 19.7 | 66.9 | 93 | 58 | 644 | 2038 |
| Ryan Preece | 6 | 22.2 | 23.2 | 56.8 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 2309 |
| Chris Buescher | 6 | 22.8 | 21.8 | 55.6 | 10 | 1 | 479 | 1970 |
| Ross Chastain | 1 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 64.2 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 316 |
| Daniel Suarez | 6 | 26.8 | 28.2 | 43.5 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 2308 |
| Corey LaJoie | 6 | 28.3 | 23.4 | 51.1 | 13 | 11 | 162 | 2186 |
| Joey Gase | 6 | 33.2 | 35.0 | 29.6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2206 |
| Josh Bilicki | 2 | 33.5 | 35.1 | 30.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 786 |
| James Davison | 4 | 34.0 | 34.1 | 32.0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1407 |
| Quin Houff | 6 | 34.0 | 35.0 | 29.2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2004 |
| Timmy Hill | 6 | 35.5 | 33.9 | 29.9 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1333 |
| Garrett Smithley | 5 | 35.6 | 35.8 | 28.8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1287 |
The table below also has the loop data box scores and Green Flag Speed reports for this year’s Phoenix race as well as the two Martinsville races in 2020.
| Race | Loop Data Box Score | Green Flag Speed |
| Phoenix (2021) | Click here | Click here |
| Martinsville (2020-2) | Click here | Click here |
| Martinsville (2020) | Click here | Click here |
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Martinsville (Cash Lineups)
Martin Truex, Jr. ($14,000) – He’s just so good here at Martinsville. Martin Truex, Jr. has won two of the last three races at this track, including this event one year ago when he only led 132 laps. I say “only” because Truex had the best car for most of the night but had a pit road penalty mid-race that set him back a bit. Last fall, MTJ led 129 laps and was the only car in the same universe as Chase Elliott but Truex ultimately finished 22nd after a loose wheel late. This weekend, Truex starts 7th and is the projected winner according to my algorithm. This #19 team has great speed to start out the season and, don’t forget, they won at Phoenix earlier this season–the other flat track we’ve raced at.
Ross Chastain ($3,500) – With Cash lineups this week, I’m a big fan of stuffing in as many potential dominators as possible and then finishing it off with a severely under-priced Ross Chastain. Yeah, this guy can drive like an asshole most weeks, but at Martinsville, that can actually be a good thing when it comes to maintaining track position and moving forward. This weekend, Chastain starts 27th but with how his season is going, he should be good for a top 20 finish and completing most of the laps. His Cup Series here at Martinsville is non-existent in decent equipment, but even in under-funded Premium Motorsports cars, he was able to post top 30 results in three of his four starts here back in 2018 and 2019.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Martinsville (Tournament Lineups)
Joey Logano ($12,000) – Taking the pole sitter in DFS is inherently risky, and this weekend it’s probably even more so because there are a lot of really good race cars starting up front on Saturday night. However, as we saw last year in this race, Joey Logano is no slouch here at Martinsville. In that race, the #22 Ford was out front for 234 of the 500 laps and ended up finishing 4th. In the fall race, Logano wound up 3rd. With Joey being relatively high-priced in FanDuel this week, plus with him on the pole, he’s definitely going to need to lead 100+ laps in order to pay off. Basically, he’s going to need to do what we saw out of him at Phoenix earlier this year.
Chris Buescher ($5,200) – I’m not a huge fan of Chris Buescher’s FanDuel salary this weekend, but that’s one of those items that should keep his ownership down (plus the fact that he starts 15th). But I think there’s some definite potential here with Buescher as a solid round-out to your lineup. Roush-Fenway Racing has been better than normal at the flat tracks over the last few years, and Buescher himself has been pretty good specifically here at Martinsville, with three top 13 finishes in the last five races. Plus, his 15th-place starting position helps potentially keep him on the lead lap in this race.
Martinsville Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
Also included are “Ceiling” projections for each driver. This is the top possible score projected.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | $14,000 | 103.97 | 7 | 121.00 | $135 |
| Joey Logano | $12,000 | 97.32 | 1 | 123.00 | $123 |
| Brad Keselowski | $13,000 | 96.25 | 10 | 110.00 | $135 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,500 | 91.35 | 4 | 108.90 | $126 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,000 | 90.92 | 19 | 111.00 | $121 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,500 | 89.58 | 5 | 101.30 | $151 |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,500 | 89.35 | 2 | 104.40 | $140 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | 87.12 | 12 | 100.00 | $121 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 85.25 | 21 | 95.30 | $106 |
| William Byron | $9,700 | 84.75 | 3 | 102.70 | $114 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,500 | 84.75 | 20 | 90.60 | $112 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,000 | 84.15 | 9 | 90.50 | $119 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,200 | 83.50 | 23 | 92.90 | $110 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,700 | 82.90 | 31 | 91.50 | $93 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,500 | 81.00 | 22 | 85.90 | $105 |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,000 | 76.65 | 25 | 85.50 | $91 |
| Cole Custer | $6,000 | 75.40 | 26 | 84.50 | $80 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,300 | 73.90 | 18 | 83.50 | $99 |
| Ross Chastain | $3,500 | 73.55 | 27 | 82.00 | $48 |
| Ryan Newman | $6,500 | 71.75 | 8 | 81.80 | $91 |
| Chris Buescher | $5,200 | 71.15 | 15 | 77.50 | $73 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,000 | 69.15 | 11 | 86.00 | $72 |
| Erik Jones | $5,000 | 69.15 | 16 | 75.00 | $72 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,000 | 67.30 | 13 | 75.00 | $119 |
| Chase Briscoe | $5,700 | 67.20 | 24 | 77.50 | $85 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $4,500 | 65.90 | 6 | 73.00 | $68 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,000 | 65.50 | 35 | 71.00 | $46 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,000 | 65.05 | 17 | 77.00 | $61 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,000 | 64.75 | 34 | 69.00 | $46 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 61.75 | 30 | 67.00 | $57 |
| Michael McDowell | $3,500 | 61.45 | 14 | 71.00 | $57 |
| J.J. Yeley | $2,000 | 59.75 | 28 | 63.00 | $33 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 59.00 | 36 | 64.00 | $42 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,500 | 57.00 | 33 | 62.50 | $44 |
| Cody Ware | $2,000 | 55.55 | 32 | 60.50 | $36 |
| James Davison | $2,000 | 55.50 | 37 | 61.50 | $36 |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 52.70 | 29 | 59.00 | $47 |
