Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the track that the NASCAR Cup Series will roll in to this weekend as the Pennzoil 400 is set to take place on Sunday, March 7. Joey Logano is the defending winner of this race for the last two years and he’s also led 54+ laps in three of the last four races here. Kevin Harvick, who is on the pole for Sunday’s race, has led 47+ laps in three of the last four Vegas races, and also had a dominating win from the pole here back in 2018 when he led 214 of the 267 laps. Can he do it again?
Lineup Construction: There are quite a few strong potential value plays priced under $8,000 this week, and most of my lineup builds will go one of two ways: (1) three drivers over $10,000 and then a mid-priced driver ($8,500 or lower) and a low-priced driver ($6,000 or below), or (2) two high-priced drivers and then three drivers in that mid-price range between $7,000 and $9,500. Basically what you’re trying to do with your lineup(s) this week is hit the one or two lap leaders and then finishing position for the rest.
If you enjoy the FREE NASCAR content on this site, consider supporting by donating here. Also, if you missed the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race, click here to check it out!
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Las Vegas For Cash Lineups
Ryan Blaney ($10,700) – As you can see below, my projections have Ryan Blaney as the 5th-highest scorer on the slate for Sunday and he’s the 8th-highest-priced driver (and $3,300 from the top). I have his “ceiling” at 79.70 points, which would just be crazy value from a guy that is priced in the mid-range. This #12 Ford has gotten off to a slow start for the 2021 Cup Series season but a visit to Las Vegas could be just what the doctor ordered for this team; Blaney has three top 5s in his last six Vegas starts and has ended up 7th or better in six of his last eight.
Erik Jones ($4,700) – Just a mis-pricing here by FanDuel with Erik Jones coming in at $4,700 for Las Vegas. Obviously he’s not in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment anymore but he still has a respectable ride in the #43 Chevrolet for Richard Petty Motorsports. Plus, unlike last weekend at Homestead, there’s really not going to be too many “keeping up with the track” adjustments in Vegas. Jones has four top 10s in seven career starts at this track and Bubba Wallace drove this car to a 6th-place finish in last year’s Pennzoil 400. A top 20 will be good enough for Jones to be a good value in FanDuel on Sunday.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Las Vegas For Tournament Lineups
Alex Bowman ($9,500) – I’m still riding the Alex Bowman train from last week at Homestead, but the good news is, there’s plenty of room on here, so jump aboard. I loved AB every time we were at a 1.5-mile track last season so why would I stop now, this early in 2021? Bowman led the 2nd-most laps on low-wear 1.5-milers last year and had the 3rd-best average running position, but unfortunately his average finish was just 13th-best (at 14.9). That’s because this team had a problem finishing races early on in the year. Bowman showed his strength in the second Vegas race of 2020, though, when he finished 5th. This weekend, I think he’s capable of leading laps and contending for the win, which would make Alex a great FanDuel play at his $9,500 salary.
Chris Buescher ($5,000) – If you want to get off of the Erik Jones place differential chalk, or even just to save some more cap space to load up the high-priced drivers, consider last week’s surprise dominator, Chris Buescher. This guy has actually been quite solid here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with six straight finishes of 18th or better. He posted a career-best 9th-place finish here last fall and even led 10 laps. If Buescher can sneak in a top 10 finish here in Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 he could easily end up in the optimal lineups since he’s allowing so much cap relief.
Pennzoil 400 FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
Also included are “Ceiling” projections for each driver. This is the top possible score projected.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | $14,000 | 72.93 | 1 | 84.70 | $192 |
| Joey Logano | $13,000 | 70.95 | 15 | 82.80 | $183 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $13,500 | 70.33 | 4 | 83.00 | $192 |
| Chase Elliott | $12,500 | 70.10 | 8 | 82.80 | $178 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,700 | 69.62 | 26 | 79.70 | $154 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,500 | 64.25 | 9 | 76.80 | $148 |
| Brad Keselowski | $11,300 | 63.85 | 10 | 76.70 | $177 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | 62.95 | 14 | 69.00 | $167 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,700 | 62.80 | 3 | 78.60 | $186 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,500 | 61.45 | 28 | 66.70 | $122 |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,000 | 60.05 | 6 | 70.30 | $200 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,800 | 59.70 | 30 | 67.70 | $131 |
| Kurt Busch | $10,000 | 56.20 | 7 | 69.20 | $178 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,200 | 55.95 | 12 | 61.70 | $147 |
| Cole Custer | $7,300 | 55.45 | 20 | 67.20 | $132 |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 53.90 | 2 | 69.80 | $167 |
| Erik Jones | $4,700 | 53.60 | 29 | 62.70 | $88 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,500 | 52.70 | 16 | 63.70 | $161 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,000 | 51.95 | 17 | 68.70 | $115 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,000 | 49.85 | 24 | 58.70 | $140 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,500 | 49.60 | 21 | 60.20 | $111 |
| Tyler Reddick | $6,200 | 49.20 | 11 | 62.70 | $126 |
| Chris Buescher | $5,000 | 48.70 | 18 | 61.70 | $103 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,700 | 46.20 | 13 | 53.20 | $123 |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,300 | 46.10 | 23 | 56.70 | $115 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,000 | 43.00 | 22 | 53.20 | $116 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,000 | 43.00 | 27 | 51.20 | $70 |
| Ryan Preece | $3,000 | 41.85 | 19 | 48.70 | $72 |
| Corey LaJoie | $2,500 | 41.40 | 33 | 49.70 | $60 |
| Justin Haley | $4,000 | 39.65 | 25 | 45.70 | $101 |
| Michael McDowell | $4,500 | 39.35 | 5 | 52.20 | $114 |
| Joey Gase | $2,000 | 34.70 | 37 | 39.70 | $58 |
| Quin Houff | $2,000 | 33.85 | 36 | 37.70 | $59 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 33.70 | 35 | 35.70 | $59 |
| Cody Ware | $2,000 | 33.55 | 32 | 38.70 | $60 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 33.55 | 31 | 36.70 | $60 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,000 | 32.95 | 34 | 35.20 | $61 |
| Timmy Hill | $2,000 | 31.75 | 38 | 34.20 | $63 |
