It kind of feels weird talking about NASCAR again, doesn’t it? Well anyway… RACING IS BACK! Buckle up because we have four Cup Series Races over a 10-day span, and we’re only visiting two tracks. Up first is Darlington, which is where we will race on Sunday afternoon and Wednesday evening.
Darlington is one of the most historic tracks on the circuit and is a fan favorite. Tire management comes into play quite a bit here because of the abrasive surface, and the cream (talent) always rises to the top at this track. Rookies have historically been awful fantasy picks here in the past, but we haven’t had a rookie class this loaded in a while, so that could change this weekend.
“The Lady in Black”–the nickname for Darlington–is one of those tracks we only typically visit once per season, with the annual Southern 500 typically taking place in the fall. On Sunday, though, the race is scheduled for 400 miles, making it 100 less than the typical event we have here. It’s also scheduled to start a couple of hours earlier than the Southern 500 does. And as you probably know, the Cup Series teams don’t get any practice time, nor get to qualify for this race. Instead, starting positions will be based on a random draw. NASCAR hopes to have the starting lineup determined by Friday.
2020 Race Recaps
It’s been two months since we’ve seen these cars on the track, so let’s quickly recap the three races that were ran after the Daytona 500. In the early part of the season, typically the drivers that are fast out of the gate remain that way until about a third of the way through the year…well, in a normal season. We’ll see if that holds true.
Las Vegas Recap: It was kind of a weird to see Kevin Harvick being stronger on the short runs than he was on the long runs, but that was the case at Las Vegas. Still, “Happy” led a race-high 92 laps that day before ultimately finishing 8th. The guy with the fastest car in Sin City, though, was probably Chase Elliott, who won both Stages and led 70 laps. He ended up 26th in the end, though, after suffering a flat tire. Martin Truex, Jr. had a top 5 car all day until he got into the wall late. Harvick had the best in-race average running position (3.4). Others that were strong were Ryan Blaney (3.8 average running position) and Joey Logano (4.2 average running position). Blaney finished 11th while Logano ended up in victory lane, in large part due to a wacky late restart thanks to a lot of varying pit strategies after a late caution. Without that late yellow, Blaney would’ve won the race.
Fontana Recap: It was the Alex Bowman and Ryan Blaney show at Auto Club Speedway. Bowman led 110 of the 200 laps and had a ridiculous average running position of 1.8 while Blaney had an average running position of 2.9 but had a tire issue late (pitted with 3 laps left) and finished 19th after leading 54 laps. Bowman was the one in victory lane at the end of the day. Other noteworthy performances were Martin Truex, Jr., who challenged for the lead late but had pit crew issues again and ended up 14th. Also Jimmie Johnson had an amazing day even though he finished 7th, as his average running position was 3.6 (3rd-best behind Bowman and Blaney). Once again Joe Gibbs Racing was slower than expected all day but Kyle Busch rallied late to finish 2nd.
Phoenix Recap: An early wreck involving Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney ended the #12 team’s day early, while the #11 crew struggled for the remainder of the race as well. The #2 team rebounded to win Stage 2 and lead 82 laps, though, before ultimately finishing 11th. In the end, it was Joey Logano in victory lane yet again, although Kevin Harvick had the most consistent speed for much of the afternoon. Harvick led 67 laps and finished 2nd while Logano led 60 laps and got the win. Looking at average running position, the #4 Ford was the best all day (2.6) while the #22 Ford was 2nd-best (6.0). Chase Elliott had another amazing car in this race as well, leading a race-high 93 laps, but he was 7th when the checkered flag flew. That’s very impressive considering he had an early issue and had to get the lucky dog to get back on the lead lap.
Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Preview
1. Kevin Harvick (#4 Ford)
Kevin Harvick will start somewhere inside the top 12 on Sunday depending on the random draw. He should be a contender for the win, too. “Happy” has just one victory here at The Lady in Black, but it was back in the 2014 season and he hasn’t looked back since; over the last seven races at this track, Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 9th at Darlington, and six of those races were top 5 finishes for him. He has the best average running position of anyone in the series here over those six races as well, with an incredible 4.9. Rodney Childers should have an awesome setup ready for this weekend, and the lack of practice and qualifying shouldn’t hurt this #4 team too much.
2. Kyle Busch (#18 Toyota)
Oddsmakers in Vegas and other places have made Kyle Busch the favorite for this weekend’s, which is kind of interesting because he has just one win here in 15 career starts (and it came back in 2008). However, Rowdy has finished 7th or better in seven of the last eight races at this track and led 118 laps in last year’s Southern 500 despite starting back in 33rd. He ended up finishing 3rd that night. Kyle should be a top 5 contender on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to dominate the race by any means. Joe Gibbs Racing just hasn’t shown that type of speed thus far in 2020. Like Harvick, Kyle Busch will start somewhere in the top 12 on Sunday, depending on the random draw.
3. Joey Logano (#22 Ford)
Don’t be surprised if Joey Logano returns to victory lane once again on Sunday. Him and his new crew chief, Paul Wolfe, have really hit on things to start the 2020 season, and don’t forget that Wolfe guided Brad Keselowski to a win here at Darlington in 2018 and a 5th-place finish last season. In other words, he knows this track well, and that should be an advantage for this #22 team on Sunday. As far as track history goes with the driver, Logano hasn’t been great at The Lady in Black throughout his entire career, but he has three top 5s here in the last five races. He will start inside the top 12 this week.
4. Brad Keselowski (#2 Ford)
Track history should come into play here at Darlington quite a bit this weekend since there is on-track activity before the race goes green, and that should prove to be a good thing for Brad Keselowski. As mentioned earlier, Kevin Harvick has the best average running position here at Darlington over the last six races, but BK is 2nd-best in that category with an ARP of 6.0. He also won here in 2018 and came home 5th last year. Keselowski will start somewhere in the top 12 on Sunday with his position depending on the random draw.
5. Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)
Like the rest of these top 5 drivers listed, Chase Elliott will start inside the top 12 for Sunday’s The Real Heros 400. Hendrick Motorsports got off to such a fast start this 2020 season, and unless the other organizations caught up during the down time, there’s no reason why these Chevrolets shouldn’t be fast here this weekend as well. Chase could easily have two wins in 2020 right now, but he’s stuck at zero despite having the most laps led in the series. Here at The Lady in Black, Elliott posted a career-best 5th-place finish here in 2018, but that’s his only finish better than 10th at this track in five career starts. I expect him to run much better than his “normal” self here this weekend.
6. Alex Bowman (#88 Chevrolet)
You should expect a career-best Darlington finish out of Alex Bowman on Sunday. Now while that sounds impressive, if you know his track record here, you’ll know that’s not really that much of an accomplishment; Bowman has never finished better than 18th at The Lady in Black. However, Bowman has been fast all season long, has that win at Fontana, and was running inside the top 10 in last year’s Southern 500 before he had to make an unscheduled pit stop with less than 50 laps to go. Is this 6th-place early ranking a bit high? Yep. Have the Hendrick Chevrolets showed that much speed in 2020 to justify it? Yep. Bowman will start inside the top 12 for Sunday’s race, as the #88 Chevrolet currently ranks 4th in Owners Points.
7. Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
Denny Hamlin is a two-time winner here at Darlington and since the #11 Toyota is currently 11th in the Owners Points standings, he’ll have a nice top 12 starting spot here on Sunday to possibly grab win number three. Do I see that happening? No, but at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised. Over the last six Darlington races, Hamlin has the 4th-best average running position (7.7), and throughout his 14 career Cup Series starts here, Denny has just three results outside of the top 10. He’s a very safe Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend.
8. Erik Jones (#20 Toyota)
Last year’s Southern 500 didn’t win that race in a Daniel Suarez fluke way; Erik Jones is just really good at Darlington. He’s made three career Cup Series starts here and has walked away with a win, an 8th-place finish, and a 5th-place finish. And with that 8th-place finish, he also ended up 2nd and 5th in the two Stages. Now comes the bad news: this #20 team has gotten off to a rough start in 2020, with a best finish of 10th thus far. Because of that, Jones will have to start from somewhere between 13th and 24th on Sunday. Still, this #20 team should have the setup ready to get Erik towards the front.
9. Martin Truex, Jr. (#19 Toyota)
The speed has been there for Martin Truex, Jr. in 2020, but the execution has been off. Because of that, the #19 Toyota hasn’t finished better than 14th this season, but that could easily change this weekend. Still, Truex will start from somewhere between 13th and 24th on Sunday. As far as not having any practice or qualifying this weekend, this would have been a major advantage for Truex if Cole Pearn was still on the box, as most weekends they didn’t deviate much, if any, from the original setup. I’m not sure if James Small is like that or not. Looking at track history, Truex won at Darlington in 2016 but that’s his only top 5 here since 2013.
10. Jimmie Johnson (#48 Chevrolet)
Again… Hendrick power. Jimmie Johnson is a three-time winner at Darlington over his storied career and will have a good starting spot here on Sunday since the #48 Chevrolet is currently inside the top 12 in Owners Points. Unfortunately, Jimmie hasn’t sniffed the top 10 here since 2014, but I really think that will change this weekend. That speed isn’t a fluke, and it’s not like Johnson has forgotten how to race The Lady in Black.
11. Ryan Blaney (#12 Ford)
Maybe a two-month break is what this #12 team needed to shake off their bad luck. After almost winning the Daytona 500, Ryan Blaney should have won Las Vegas but didn’t, and then was one of the two best cars at Fontana until a tire issue late. So while, yes, he’s had bad luck, at the same time, this #12 Ford has been bad fast. Now it’s going to be up to Ryan to “figure out” Darlington on Sunday. Blaney has made five career Cup Series starts at The Lady in Black and has yet to finish better than 13th. The good news is that his new crew chief, Todd Gordon, guided Joey Logano to some good finishes here recently, so maybe that’ll bump Blaney up a notch here on Sunday. Additionally, Blaney will start inside the top 12 since the #12 Ford is currently 6th in Owners Points.
12. Kurt Busch (#1 Chevrolet)
Darlington is a great track for Kurt Busch, and over the last six races here, he has the 6th-best average running position in the series (8.8). He also has four finishes of 7th or better in his last five starts here. Unfortunately, though, there’s a chance Kurt might have some work to do when the green flag waves on Sunday, as he’ll start somewhere between 13th and 24th with the random qualifying draw. Still, Kurt is more than capable of finding his way to the front this weekend, and should challenge for a top 10 finish.
13. Matt DiBenedetto (#21 Ford)
Talk about off to an even better-than-expected start… through the first four races of 2020, Matt DiBenedetto’s worst finish has been 19th, and that came in the Daytona 500. Pretty solid. He has a 2nd-place finish to his credit at Las Vegas, too, thanks to that late, wacky caution. As far as Darlington goes, Matty D will have a good starting spot on Sunday since the #21 Ford is in the top 12 in Owners Points, and let’s not forget that DiBenedetto piloted his #95 Toyota to an 8th-place finish in last year’s Southern 500. Definitely an underdog to keep an eye on again.
14. Clint Bowyer (#14 Ford)
One driver that is quietly off to a very good start in 2020 is Clint Bowyer, as his 23rd-place finish at Fontana is his only result outside of the top 12 this year. Add on the fact that Clint posted a career-best finish of 6th here at Darlington last season and he could easily be a Fantasy NASCAR driver that flies under the radar on Sunday. Unfortunately, Bowyer just missed the cutoff line for the random qualifying draw, so instead of starting inside the top 12 on Sunday, he’ll be somewhere between 13th and 24th when this race goes green.
15. Aric Almirola (#10 Ford)
His teammate may have missed the cut off, but the #10 Ford is solidly inside the top 12 in Owners Points so Aric Almirola will have a solid starting spot here on Sunday. Over the years, Almirola has been pretty average here at Darlington, with four top 20 finishes in the last five races at The Lady in Black, and six finishes inside that mark in his eight career starts here. It’s worth noting that Aric has never finished between than 11th in Cup Series action here.
16. William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
Maybe these shorter race distances will help William Byron because at Darlington he tends to be one of those drivers that fades as the race goes on. He had engine issues in his first start here, relegating him to a 35th-place finish, and then started on the pole in last year’s Southern 500 before ultimately finishing 21st and leading zero laps. Willy B will start between 13th and 24th when Sunday’s The Real Heros 400 goes green.
17. Chris Buescher (#17 Ford)
After a 3rd-place finish in this year’s Daytona 500, Chris Buescher has settled into the mid-teens for the other three Cup Series races in 2020, kind of like what he did for most of last season. As far as Darlington goes, Buescher has actually been a really solid Fantasy NASCAR pick here, with no finishes worse than 17th in four starts, along with a career-best 12th-place finish last year. Buescher will start between 13th and 24th on Sunday.
18. Austin Dillon (#3 Chevrolet)
It’s kind of weird to say that Austin Dillon is actually pretty good at one of the track that requires the most talent, but here we are. Over his six career starts at The Lady in Black, Austin has an average finish of 12.5 and even came home 4th here in the 2017 race. His average running position of 16.5 over that span ranks as 13th-best in the series. One thing that could work against Austin here this weekend is the shortened race; he tends to be one of those guys that lasts and is there at the end at Darlington. He’ll start between 13th and 24th on Sunday.
19. Matt Kenseth (#42 Chevrolet)
He’s baaack. Yep, while most people thought it would Ross Chastain that took over for recently fired Kyle Larson, Chip Ganassi Racing dropped the bombshell news that Matt Kenseth would be coming back to racing. Now the question is, will it be like riding a bike, or will it take a while for him to get used to it again? The good news for Kenseth is that this #42 Chevrolet has been fast in 2020, and because of that, Matt will have a top 12 starting spot on Sunday. Also, the #42 Chevrolet has been fast here at Darlington recently. It’s worth noting that Kenseth has five finishes of 6th or better in his last seven Darlington starts. I’m being super conservative with this 19th-place ranking heading into the weekend, I could easily see Kenseth challenging for a top 10 on Sunday.
20. Ryan Newman (#6 Ford)
Also making his return this weekend is Ryan Newman, who will get a starting position between 13th and 24th on Sunday depending on the random draw. Like Matt Kenseth, I’m being pretty conservative with my ranking of Ryan Newman because I’m not 100% sure what to expect. In the last two Darlington races, Newman hasn’t finished better than 19th, but he does have seven top 10s in his last 11 starts here.
21. Tyler Reddick (#8 Chevrolet)
Keep an eye on Tyler Reddick this weekend. Unfortunately, he will start between 25th and 36th for Sunday’s The Real Heros 400 but this #8 Chevrolet has been super fast all season long and Reddick seems to be the real deal despite being in average equipment with Richard Childress Racing. He obviously has no Cup Series experience here at Darlington but Reddick did finish 2nd and 3rd over the last two years here in the Xfinity Series.
22. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (#47 Chevrolet)
So far in his Cup Series career, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has made seven starts at Darlington Raceway and has came away with four top 20 finishes in the Southern 500. He also has three finishes of 29th or worse. So which Ricky will we get this weekend? It’s tough to tell, but this team should have a pretty good base setup considering Chris Buescher hasn’t finished worse than 17th at this track. Stenhouse will start between 13th and 24th here on Sunday.
23. Ty Dillon (#13 Chevrolet)
Both Dillon boys are pretty solid here at The Lady in Black. Looking at Ty’s record, he’s finished 20th, 21st, and 13th in his three career starts here, but he’s kind of like Austin where he rides around and is there at the end. Like I said before, the shortened race could hurt the Dillons. Looking toward the starting lineup, the #13 Chevrolet is 24th in Owners Points so Ty will start somewhere between 13th and 24th on Sunday.
24. Cole Custer (#41 Ford)
Thanks to the #41 Ford being 23rd in the Owners Points standings, Cole Custer could wind up with a pretty good starting spot here on Sunday. At worst, he’ll roll off the grid from 24th. Looking at Darlington, Daniel Suarez ran 11th in this car in last year’s Southern 500, and if he can accomplish that, Custer is more than capable of challenging for a top 15. But rookies and Darlington… I don’t know, it’s been a rule for so long! Looking at the Xfinity Series, Cole won here at The Lady in Black last season and finished 2nd the year before.
25. Christopher Bell (#95 Toyota)
The #95 Toyota is 35th in the Owners Points standings so that means Christoper Bell will start somewhere between 25th and 36th on Sunday. As far as expectations go, as mentioned before, the rule of thumb at Darlington is to typically stay away from the rookies, but you can’t argue with the fact that there’s a ton of talent here. Also, Matt DiBenedetto drove this #95 Toyota to an 8th-place finish in last year’s Southern 500. For what it’s worth, Christopher Bell started 2nd and finished 4th here at Darlington in the Xfinity Series last year.
Is there any driver values?