NASCAR Fantasy Preview: Fontana (Auto Club 400)

Week 3 of the NASCAR Cup Series season brings us to Fontana, California and the Auto Club Speedway. This track used to have multiple dates during the season but since 2011, we’ve made just one early-season stop at Fontana. This is a big 2-mile oval, and with the Auto Club 400 being scheduled for 400 miles on Sunday, that means we’ll have 200 laps to run once the green flag flies. We typically see just one main dominator lead over half of the race here at Fontana, as six of the last seven events at this track has had one driver lead 100+ laps.

When it comes to similar tracks to Fontana, the closest you’re going to get is Michigan International Speedway. That is also a 2-mile track, and is the sister venue to Auto Club Speedway. We have two races per year at Michigan, so it’s a good idea to go back and analyze those recent races to get a feel for who should perform well this weekend. As far as performance last week at Las Vegas, it’s definitely something to take into consideration as well. The Hendrick Chevrolets looked crazy fast all weekend long in Sin City, and although they haven’t found much success here at Fontana recently, three Hendrick cars finished inside the top 10 in the fall Michigan race last year.

Schedule-wise, we’re looking at a similar one to what we had at Las Vegas last week. There are two practices on Friday, scheduled to start at 4:05 pm and 5:35 pm ET, and then qualifying at 2:35 pm ET on Saturday. All will be shown on the FS1 TV channel. This will be an impound race, but it is expected that NASCAR will perform inspection before qualifying, which will lock in the starting lineup on Saturday

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Auto Club 400 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview

1. Joey Logano (#22 Ford)

The #22 Ford wasn’t the absolute strongest car in the field last week at Las Vegas, but Logano stayed around all day and was there at the end when it mattered the most, ending up in victory lane for the first time in 2020. At Fontana, he’s currently on a four-race streak of top 5 finishes, and looking over at Michigan, Logano dominated the first race there last season–winning from the pole–and then led 52 laps in the fall before finishing 17th. He will be a contender on Sunday.

2. Kyle Busch (#18 Toyota)

If we’re being honest, Kyle Busch should have the #1 spot for Auto Club Speedway heading into the weekend, but the lack of speed by Joe Gibbs Racing at Las Vegas has my confidence in them down a little bit–at least while they’re on this west coast swing. Still, Rowdy is the defending winner of this race at Fontana (he dominated last year, winning both Stages and leading 134 laps) and has finished 3rd or better here six of the last eight races, including three wins. The #18 Toyota ran 5th and 6th at Michigan last year after starting 15th and 22nd (respectively).

3. Kevin Harvick (#4 Ford)

It was kind of a weird sight at Las Vegas last weekend: Kevin Harvick didn’t have a great long run car. Usually he lacks speed on the short run. Still, the #4 Ford led the most laps in Sin City, and should be a contender here at Auto Club on Sunday. Harvick finished 4th here last season and has ended up inside the top 5 in six of his last 11 starts at this track. He has also won the last two fall races at Michigan. Between the two tracks, Michigan tends to be the better one for Harvick, but he’s capable of winning at Fontana.

4. Martin Truex, Jr. (#19 Toyota)

Truex ended up finishing 20th at Las Vegas last weekend, but he easily had a top 5 car–which is encouraging since the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas were down on speed all weekend. As far as the 2-mile tracks go, Truex has really turned things around at them over the last few years, and even won from the pole here at Fontana in 2018. At Michigan, he swept the top 5 last year. The #19 Toyota should be a top 5 contender on Sunday, but we’ll have to see how the practices and qualifying go before determining if he can challenge for the win.

5. Ryan Blaney (#12 Ford)

You just have to feel for Ryan Blaney right now, as he could easily be 2-for-2 when it comes to wins this season. That victory will be coming soon, though. As far as this weekend at Auto Club Speedway, you can expect Ryan to be in the thick of things. He grabbed his first top 5 here last season, and now has three straight top 10 finishes at this track, and over at Michigan he’s finished between 5th and 9th in three of the last four races.

6. Brad Keselowski (#2 Ford)

Brad Keselowski at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is just a sight to see. He’s done it two years in a row now, where he looks like garbage for about half of the race, and then roars back to challenge for a top 5 in the end. Part of me thinks he may be using that race as an experiment to try and learn something for the 1.5-mile tracks later in the season. Anyway, Kez has three straight top 5 finishes here at Auto Club Speedway as well as a victory here back in 2015. He’s also finished 6th or better in three of the last four Michigan races. He’s another solid NASCAR Fantasy pick this weekend, even if the #2 Ford doesn’t look great in practice again.

7. Chase Elliott (#9 Chevrolet)

It’s hard not to like Chase Elliott in Fantasy NASCAR after that performance last weekend. I don’t think we’ve ever seen Chase have that good of a car at a 1.5-mile track, and he would have ran away with the win if it wasn’t for that flat tire. Now the question is, will he be able to compete like that at Fontana? Chase has made four career starts here and has three finishes of 11th or better in those four attempts, with the only exception being a 16th-place result in 2018 (although he started back in 31st for that race). At Michigan, Elliott has three 2nd-place finishes to his credit and has wound up 9th or better in seven of his eight career starts.

8. Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)

As long as the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas aren’t lacking on speed again this weekend, Denny Hamlin should be a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick. He’s finished inside the top 10 in each of the last six Stages here at Auto Club Speedway, and as far as overall race results, he’s ended up 7th or better in three of the last four. Hamlin also has a streak of eight straight years of leading at least one lap at Fontana. Over at Michigan, Denny wound up 11th and 2nd in the two races there last season.

9. Kyle Larson (#42 Chevrolet)

Kyle Larson is the ultimate boom or bust Fantasy NASCAR pick at Auto Club Speedway. In six career starts here, he has one win along with two 2nd-place finishes, but his other three results have all been outside of the top 10. At Michigan, Larson grabbed three straight wins in 2016 and 2017, but then went through a three-race streak of finishes of 14th or worse. He got back on the horse last fall with a 3rd-place finish in the Irish Hills. There’s optimism for Larson this weekend, but with how much the long-run speed Chip Ganassi Chevrolets showed in practice at Las Vegas, only to severely disappoint on race day, it’s going to be hard confidently picking either Larson or Kurt Busch this weekend. If the #42 Chevrolet qualifies up front, though, it’ll be easier to roll the dice.

10. Alex Bowman (#88 Chevrolet)

The #88 team proved at Las Vegas that their awesome performances on the 1.5-mile tracks last season wasn’t a fluke, and would have at least finished 2nd–if not 1st–without that late caution happening in Las Vegas. And while that is definitely great for this team moving forward, this weekend is going to be a bit of a test for Alex Bowman. He’s never finished better than 13th in four career starts at Auto Club Speedway, but this #88 Chevrolet did come home 10th in both Michigan races last year. Keep an eye on Bowman in practice on Friday.

11. William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)

It’s pretty much the same story for William Byron as it is for his teammate, Alex Bowman, this weekend. Willy B has two starts under his belt here at Auto Club Speedway, and has finished 15th both times. He also started outside of the top 20 both times, so maybe he’ll be able to contend with a good qualifying effort on Saturday. At Michigan, Byron finished 8th last fall after starting 3rd, and has ended up inside the top 10 in five of the eight possible Stage finishes he’s faced.

12. Austin Dillon (#3 Chevrolet)

What in the world is this? If you’ve followed me for very long, you’re probably asking yourself this question. And while, yes, I can be very critical of Austin Dillon at times, I also give credit where it’s due. Last week at Las Vegas, the #3 Chevrolet was a solid top 15 car, and even legitimately ran in the top 10 late. That late caution helped Austin grab a 4th-place finish in Sin City. But that was last week. So why do I have him ranked so high heading into the Auto Club 400 weekend? History. Austin has finished 11th or better in four of his six starts at Fontana, including top 10s in each of the last two races here. He’s also sat on the pole in two of the last four Auto Club races. At Michigan, he’s finished 14th or better in four of the last five.

13. Aric Almirola (#10 Ford)

One of the more disappointing drivers in the Fantasy NASCAR world last week was Aric Almirola, and honestly, the entire Stewart-Haas fleet in general. Outside of Kevin Harvick, the SHR cars weren’t very good in Sin City. But will they rebound at Fontana this weekend where horsepower is a little more important? Almirola has finished 9th and 12th in his two starts here with Stewart-Haas, and has been a top 10 pick at Michigan since joining this organization, although he only has a couple of good finishes to show for it.

14. Jimmie Johnson (#48 Chevrolet)

We have just one “real” race completed in 2020, but if the Hendrick cars continue to have that kind of speed on race day, Jimmie Johnson could get another win before hanging it up. Really. I don’t think it will come this weekend at Fontana, but you never know. Johnson is a six-time winner here at Auto Club Speedway and finished 9th in the 2018 race at this track. Overall, he has three top 10s in his last five starts here, and the #48 Chevrolet finished 15th in the first Michigan race last year. Between the two tracks, Jimmie is definitely better at the west coast venue.

15. Erik Jones (#20 Toyota)

There’s always the possibility that Erik Jones and this #20 team hit on something this weekend, but chances are he’s going to be a mid-teens NASCAR Fantasy pick on Sunday. He wound up 7th here at Auto Club in 2018 after starting 4th, but his other two results have been 19th and 12th. At Michigan, he hasn’t had a top 10 finish in the last four races. On the optimistic side, Jones has finished inside the top 10 in all six Stages at Fontana since joining the Cup Series full time…

16. Kurt Busch (#1 Chevrolet)

Of all the disappointing runs at Las Vegas last weekend, Kurt Busch was probably the most surprising for me. As I mentioned before, both Chip Ganassi Racing cars were just not good on Sunday, but Kurt’s #1 Chevrolet was garbage. So I’m tempering my expectations with him a bit heading into the Auto Club 400 weekend. With that being said, Busch did finish 6th here last season, and came home 2nd in the first Michigan race last year as well. This is one driver that could jump a lot of spots with my final rankings this weekend.

17. Clint Bowyer (#14 Ford)

It’s not very common for Clint Bowyer to have a good race at a 2-mile track. Yeah, he won at Michigan back in 2018, but that was because he was in the right place at the right time when the rain started. He has finished outside of the top 20 in seven of his last nine starts at that track. Here at Fontana, Bowyer’s record is similar. He came home 3rd here back in 2017 but that’s his only top 10 at this track in the last eight years.

18. Matt DiBenedetto (#21 Ford)

As I’ve been saying, these first few weeks are going to be difficult to handicap Matt DiBenedetto. He finished 2nd at Las Vegas but was probably a top 15 car at best. What I’m looking at is how this #21 Ford has faired lately at these tracks. Paul Menard ran 20th here at Fontana last year and 19th in 2018, and at Michigan he finished between 5th and 16th in all four races he ran with the Wood Brothers. This weekend, DiBenedetto should be good enough to at least challenge for a top 15 finish.

19. Chris Buescher (#17 Ford)

Chris Buescher is another driver that’s a little difficult to handicap right now, although not as bad as Matt DiBenedetto. Chris finished 16th here at Fontana last season and posted finishes of 16th and 14th at Michigan in 2019. Now he’s in this Roush-Fenway Racing Ford, which should give him a little more speed on these higher-horsepower tracks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buescher finish in the mid-teens on Sunday, maybe even a little bit better.

20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (#47 Chevrolet)

The #47 team played the strategy game at Las Vegas and it paid off enormously for them. However, the chances of that happening very often aren’t very high, because we don’t see a lot of cautions with this package–especially at the tracks of of 1.5+ miles. Now, as far as this weekend, Ricky is actually pretty decent at Auto Club Speedway, with three top 15s in the last five races here. His other results were 18th and 22nd. Did he get a little boost from the Roush-Yates engines under the hood, though? Probably. He’s still a top 20 threat this weekend.

21. Christopher Bell (#95 Toyota)

The rookie season in the NASCAR Cup Series has hit Christopher Bell and Cole Custer like a slap in the face. Obviously they’re not going to disappoint NASCAR Fantasy players like this all season, but it may be best to hold off on picking them until later on in the year. Looking at Bell’s Xfinity stats, he ran 3rd here at Fontana last season while finishing 13th at Michigan. This #95 Toyota finished 18th with Matt DiBenedetto piloting it here at Auto Club Speedway last season.

22. Ross Chastain (#6 Ford)

Ross Chastain’s first Cup Series attempt in decent equipment was disappointing to say the least, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles it this week at Fontana. As far as track history, Chastain posted finishes of 29th and 28th here at Auto Club while with Premium Motorsports, which was about the norm for that team. Newman finished 22nd at this track last season, his only attempt here with Roush-Fenway Racing. What’s even more disappointing about that is “The Rocketman” started 7th that day.

23. Cole Custer (#41 Ford)

Daniel Suarez actually finished 13th in this #41 Ford here at Fontana last season, and if he can do that, there’s no reason that someone like Cole Custer can’t do the same thing. What’s discouraging about Custer is just how awful he was at Las Vegas last weekend; he barely ran in the top 20 all day and lucked into a 19th-place finish. With that being said, Cole went to victory lane here at Auto Club in the Xfinity Series last season, so there is some hope there.

24. Tyler Reddick (#8 Chevrolet)

A pleasant surprise at Las Vegas last weekend was rookie Tyler Reddick, who finished 18th after all of the late happenings but honestly had about an 18th-to-22nd-place car for much of the afternoon. As far as this #8 Chevrolet goes, Daniel Hemric didn’t have much luck here at Fontana, but he did finish 12th in the first Michigan race last year after starting up 11th. If Reddick can have a good qualifying effort here on Saturday, I could see him finishing inside the top 20. For what it’s worth, Tyler ran 4th in the Xfinity Series here at Fontana last season and also won at Michigan.

25. Ty Dillon (#13 Chevrolet)

How about Ty Dillon getting his first surprise top 10 of the season at Las Vegas? He almost did the same thing at Michigan in last year’s fall race, when the #13 Chevrolet crossed the stripe in 11th at the end. Overall, he has ended up 22nd or better in six of his eight starts, with the only exceptions being 22nd- and 38th-place finishes. Here at Fontana, Ty has finished 27th the last two years but did come home 18th here in his rookie season. I wouldn’t be surprised with a result between 20th and 25th for this #13 team on Sunday.

26. Ryan Preece (#37 Chevrolet)

Preece is a sleeper to keep an eye on this weekend. He finished 23rd here at Fontana last season and then came home 25th and 7th in the two Michigan races. Now obviously that second result was more due to a weird ending than anything else, but he’s shown to be a decent low-tier fantasy option on these 2-mile tracks so far in his young Cup Series career.

27. John Hunter Nemechek (#38 Ford)

Even with his spins and everything else last week at Las Vegas, John Hunter Nemechek was able able to salvage a 24th-place finish at Las Vegas, although he was legitimately running inside the top 20 at a few points during that race. He now has four finishes of 24th or better in his five career Cup Series starts, with the only exception being a 27th-place finish at Phoenix last year. Here at Fontana, this #38 Ford has finished 25th in the last two races, and at Michigan, David Ragan got a little lucky and wound up 16th last fall after starting 24th.

28. Michael McDowell (#34 Ford)

Michael McDowell is a pretty reliable low-tier Fantasy NASCAR option on the 2-mile tracks. He’s finished 24th and 26th in the last two Fontana races while driving this #34 Ford, and at Michigan he’s finished between 22nd and 27th in all four of his starts with Front Row Motorsports.

29. Bubba Wallace (#43 Chevrolet)

The #43 Chevrolet should be a top 30 car on Sunday here at Auto Club Speedway, and although it was great to see Bubba finished 6th at Las Vegas last weekend, it’s going to take another crazy happening at the end of the race on Sunday for him to wind up much better than about 25th. In two career starts here at Fontana, Wallace has posted finishes of 20th and 30th, while over the last three Michigan races he’s ended up 27th, 28th, and 23rd. Yep…sounds about right.

30. Corey LaJoie (#32 Ford)

Corey LaJoie is someone to keep an eye on this weekend if you need to dig really far down for your NASCAR Fantasy lineup. He’s struggled here at Fontana in his two career starts–31st last year, 30th in 2017–but Corey did post finishes of 23rd and 21st in the two Michigan races last year. This #32 team has two top 16 finishes to start off the 2020 season, who says they can’t get lucky again?