The Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is this weekend, and the second race of the Round of 8 for this year’s Playoffs. The NASCAR Cup Series hasn’t raced at Homestead yet this season, so from that perspective we’re going in blind, but it’s a high-wear 1.5-mile track, which means you can analyze statistics from similar tracks–Darlington, Dover, Bristol, Las Vegas, Auto Club–to get a good idea of who should be fast. And let’s not forget that some drivers are just really good at Homestead.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Homestead on Sunday according to my Projections is:
- Tyler Reddick
- Joey Logano
- Ross Chastain
- William Byron
- Cole Custer
- Corey LaJoie
DraftKings NASCAR Cash Core Picks for the Homestead Dixie Vodka 400
Tyler Reddick ($10,900) – This slate works out well to roll with the highest-priced driver as well as a couple of others, so I’m rolling with it. If you put my projections into an optimizer and have it spit out 150 lineups, these three “cash core” drivers are the top 3 it puts out, with Reddick at 62%, Byron at 98.7%, and Chastain at 95.3%. As far as Homestead-Miami Speedway and Tyler Reddick go, he’s made two Cup Series starts and has wound up 4th and 2nd in those events. He also started 24th and 35th in those two races. This time around, he starts 7th, so he has a lot less work to do. Reddick was the fastest car in practice when it came to 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap average, and while I think you could go a little underweight on him in tournaments, he’s a definite cash play this weekend.
Ross Chastain ($9,600) – In three career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ross Chastain has posted finishes of 33rd, 35th, and 17th, but don’t let that scare you away because only one of those starts was in halfway decent equipment (his 17th with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021). Instead, I’m more focused on how Chastain has done on high-wear and similar tracks this season, and he ranked in the top 3 in fastest laps in both Darlington races as well as the Las Vegas race last weekend. In practice here at Homestead on Saturday, Chastain was 3rd-fastest in 25-lap average and he qualified back in 20th, which makes him a must-play in cash games this weekend.
William Byron ($9,200) – The defending winner of this race went out and won the pole for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400, and while it’s always a bit risky to take the pole sitter at these 1.5-mile tracks in 2022, the cheap-ish price tag of $9,200 for Willy B makes it easier to swallow. Homestead is honestly one of Byron’s better tracks, and considering he won here last season and led 102 laps despite starting 31st, it’s going to be fun to see how much he can dominate here on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Byron ranked 6th-fastest in 25-lap average and 4th-fastest in 30-lap average. Don’t forget that that first pit stall is going to be a big advantage on race day as well.
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Homestead-Miami NASCAR DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DK Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Proj Own | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | $10,900 | 64.25 | 26.09% | 7 | 04.5 | $170 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,600 | 60.10 | 36.58% | 20 | 06.3 | $160 |
| William Byron | $9,200 | 59.07 | 38.67% | 1 | 08.5 | $156 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,600 | 52.48 | 24.67% | 14 | 07.5 | $202 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,800 | 51.70 | 25.87% | 5 | 04.8 | $209 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,000 | 51.60 | 19.19% | 11 | 08.2 | $194 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 49.67 | 26.10% | 17 | 08.2 | $197 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,400 | 46.35 | 30.85% | 12 | 08.5 | $203 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 45.25 | 19.79% | 2 | 05.5 | $199 |
| Kevin Harvick | $8,800 | 44.77 | 28.38% | 16 | 10.8 | $197 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,200 | 40.75 | 16.82% | 13 | 09.3 | $250 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,400 | 35.92 | 11.36% | 3 | 10.5 | $290 |
| Noah Gragson | $8,100 | 33.83 | 19.43% | 24 | 17.0 | $239 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,200 | 32.57 | 23.09% | 32 | 21.2 | $221 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,700 | 32.28 | 18.73% | 26 | 18.2 | $239 |
| Daniel Suarez | $8,300 | 31.70 | 15.89% | 23 | 17.2 | $262 |
| Michael McDowell | $7,400 | 29.13 | 8.83% | 18 | 17.5 | $254 |
| Brad Keselowski | $7,000 | 28.92 | 9.27% | 9 | 15.3 | $242 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,500 | 28.20 | 15.60% | 19 | 19.3 | $301 |
| Erik Jones | $7,900 | 27.00 | 16.95% | 22 | 18.3 | $293 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,700 | 24.83 | 28.24% | 28 | 21.8 | $270 |
| Justin Haley | $6,300 | 22.12 | 9.37% | 15 | 17.8 | $285 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,500 | 21.50 | 25.95% | 27 | 24.3 | $302 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,900 | 20.40 | 8.20% | 8 | 17.8 | $338 |
| Cole Custer | $5,500 | 20.00 | 19.90% | 25 | 24.8 | $275 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $7,500 | 19.35 | 5.73% | 10 | 18.0 | $388 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,000 | 18.17 | 24.53% | 31 | 27.7 | $275 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,700 | 14.83 | 19.35% | 30 | 28.2 | $384 |
| John H. Nemechek | $6,100 | 13.58 | 3.12% | 4 | 18.3 | $449 |
| Cody Ware | $4,700 | 12.17 | 1.46% | 36 | 33.0 | $386 |
| Landon Cassill | $4,800 | 11.50 | 1.03% | 33 | 31.2 | $417 |
| Harrison Burton | $5,300 | 11.17 | 4.32% | 21 | 25.8 | $475 |
| Ty Gibbs | $5,900 | 10.85 | 5.61% | 6 | 20.0 | $544 |
| JJ Yeley | $4,500 | 06.33 | 1.29% | 34 | 34.5 | $711 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,100 | 05.83 | 8.62% | 29 | 32.2 | $874 |
| BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 05.67 | 1.12% | 35 | 35.2 | $812 |
