The NASCAR Cup Series is at New Hampshire Motor Speedway today for the Ambetter 301. Otherwise known as Loudon, this track is in the “short, flat” category, coming in at 1.058 miles in length with minimal banking in the corners (between 2 and 7 degrees of variable banking).
Since we haven’t raced at New Hampshire in the NextGen car yet, we’re going to be looking into data from similar tracks this weekend, which include Phoenix and Richmond specifically. You could also throw in Gateway as a comparable track, and some people add Martinsville into the mix, but if you listen to Stacking Dennys, you know why RotoDoc and I don’t really consider Martinsville all that similar to Loudon.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for New Hampshire on Sunday according to my Projections is:
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Briscoe
- Austin Dillon
- Harrison Burton
The 2nd-highest projected lineup according to the projections is: Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Cole Custer. The 3rd-highest projected is pretty much the same as the 2nd-highest but switches out Harrison Burton instead of Cole Custer.
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Ambetter 301
Kyle Busch ($11,000) AND Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) – The Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch stacks are how many DraftKings players are going to start out their lineups today at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and for good reason. Truex is on the pole at one of his best tracks (he led between 83 and 141 laps in every race here from 2016 through 2018) and Kyle Busch was blazing fast in practice but whiffed in qualifying and will start back in 17th. Both of these cars have the speed to win this race. Truex didn’t pop as much as Kyle Busch did on the speed chart during practice on Saturday, but that track position will be a major advantage for the #19 team today.
Chase Briscoe ($8,400) OR Austin Cindric ($7,600) – Chase Briscoe is going to be one of the highest-owned drivers on the slate today because he had a very poor qualifying lap and will start back in 29th when the Ambetter 301 goes green. In practice, his 10-lap average was 2nd-best behind Kyle Busch, so that’s going to bump up his ownership a bit, plus the fact that Briscoe has been really good on short, flat tracks this season (won at Phoenix and 11th at Richmond). With Briscoe likely getting all of that ownership, though, I don’t mind going slightly underweight on him and pivoting to someone like Austin Cindric. In practice on Saturday, Cindric ranked 8th-fastest in 15-lap average and he has room to move up and grab place differential points starting 28th.
Ty Dillon ($5,400) OR Harrison Burton ($5,200) – This isn’t a bad week to dig down further into the driver pool than usual (at least salary price-wise). Harrison Burton and Ty Dillon both start outside of the top 30 today and are priced under $5,500. Each of these drivers have potential to challenge for a top 20 finish, but when you’re looking at pure speed we’ve seen thus far, Burton is the better choice between the two. The #21 Ford ranked 6th-fastest in both 10-lap and 15-lap average during practice this weekend, plus Harrison was 11th-fastest in Green Flag Speed back at Richmond. Between these two, Burton should garner a higher ownership, so I don’t mind being a little underweight on him and a little overweight on Ty Dillon because I think they both have very similar upside this weekend–at least closer upside than many people realize.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
New Hampshire Ambetter 301 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DK Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Proj Own | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,400 | 73.50 | 36.24% | 1 | 06.8 | $141 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,000 | 63.00 | 38.56% | 17 | 05.5 | $175 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,000 | 53.95 | 20.75% | 11 | 07.0 | $185 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,800 | 53.25 | 28.86% | 18 | 08.7 | $184 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,300 | 52.93 | 23.82% | 2 | 07.7 | $195 |
| Kevin Harvick | $8,800 | 47.05 | 19.78% | 10 | 07.5 | $187 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,600 | 45.62 | 16.67% | 14 | 11.3 | $232 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,600 | 44.77 | 21.56% | 13 | 09.8 | $192 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,400 | 44.13 | 35.82% | 29 | 13.5 | $190 |
| Joey Logano | $10,800 | 44.02 | 14.76% | 12 | 07.5 | $245 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,100 | 42.67 | 14.33% | 5 | 10.3 | $213 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,600 | 40.62 | 20.62% | 8 | 09.7 | $236 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,600 | 37.87 | 29.80% | 28 | 17.3 | $201 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,800 | 37.57 | 28.12% | 27 | 16.3 | $208 |
| William Byron | $9,400 | 37.22 | 14.34% | 6 | 09.0 | $253 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,300 | 36.95 | 17.81% | 30 | 18.8 | $171 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,900 | 30.67 | 16.60% | 19 | 16.3 | $258 |
| Erik Jones | $7,300 | 29.67 | 18.08% | 22 | 17.0 | $246 |
| Aric Almirola | $8,100 | 29.42 | 12.20% | 7 | 12.3 | $275 |
| Cole Custer | $5,800 | 28.17 | 20.99% | 23 | 20.0 | $206 |
| Harrison Burton | $5,200 | 28.07 | 25.53% | 31 | 22.8 | $185 |
| Justin Haley | $5,900 | 27.00 | 14.05% | 25 | 20.8 | $219 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,400 | 26.33 | 19.40% | 35 | 25.3 | $205 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,100 | 25.00 | 16.60% | 16 | 16.8 | $244 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,200 | 24.13 | 9.95% | 3 | 14.2 | $340 |
| Brad Keselowski | $6,900 | 20.13 | 6.11% | 9 | 17.2 | $343 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $7,100 | 16.50 | 9.93% | 20 | 22.7 | $430 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,700 | 15.67 | 13.50% | 24 | 24.8 | $428 |
| Cody Ware | $5,000 | 11.67 | 1.94% | 36 | 32.8 | $429 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,100 | 11.17 | 13.18% | 26 | 28.3 | $457 |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,400 | 11.15 | 7.09% | 4 | 20.2 | $664 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,600 | 09.67 | 1.56% | 34 | 33.0 | $476 |
| JJ Yeley | $4,500 | 07.83 | 1.21% | 33 | 33.5 | $574 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,600 | 05.17 | 4.84% | 21 | 29.0 | $1,084 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,500 | 04.83 | 4.53% | 15 | 25.0 | $1,345 |
| BJ McLeod | $4,800 | 04.67 | 0.87% | 32 | 34.7 | $1,029 |
